China’s Strategic Play: Using a TikTok Deal to Reshape U.S. Pressure

For several years, Chinese officials vehemently condemned American demands for TikTok’s Chinese parent company to divest its U.S. operations, likening it to outright theft. Surprisingly, Chinese state media is now portraying recent negotiations on this very matter as a “win-win” scenario, a significant shift in tone.

Last Friday, a phone call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump reportedly yielded “progress” on the “approval of the TikTok Deal” and other key issues. Following this, Mr. Xi lauded the ongoing discussions between China and the United States, which had taken place earlier in the week in Madrid, focusing on TikTok’s future and other points of contention, urging continued engagement from both teams.

While the highly anticipated phone call didn’t immediately finalize the deal, Mr. Xi’s willingness to even engage Mr. Trump on TikTok offered crucial insight into Beijing’s evolving diplomatic approach.

For China, conceding on TikTok represents a calculated move to hand the American president a symbolic victory on an issue he deeply values—preserving the immensely popular video app, which he credits with bolstering his appeal among young voters and contributing to his re-election. In return, Beijing seeks expanded negotiation leverage on matters it prioritizes above all else: trade tariffs, technological advancements, and the delicate situation surrounding Taiwan.

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, emphasized that “there are much bigger fish to fry.” She elaborated, “If China can utilize these minor concessions to foster a more positive atmosphere and improve U.S.-China relations, they will eagerly pursue it,” directly referencing the TikTok negotiations.

The Chinese government characterized the recent conversation as “pragmatic, positive, and constructive.” Mr. Xi indicated his potential support for a commercial TikTok deal, stating that he “respects the wishes of the company and welcomes it to hold business negotiations” in strict adherence to market principles and Chinese law.

Mr. Trump announced that the two leaders would hold their first in-person meeting of his second term at an upcoming Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea next month. He also mentioned a potential trip to China early next year, although Beijing’s official readout of the call conspicuously omitted any reference to these prospective meetings.

Indeed, TikTok appears to serve as a strategic bargaining chip for China. The app’s future in the United States, where it’s largely perceived as a national security risk, is overshadowed by Beijing’s more pressing concerns, such as stringent U.S. export controls and tariffs. These measures threaten to impede China’s own economic and technological development.

Furthermore, TikTok’s core recommendation algorithm, while once groundbreaking, has become less novel and, consequently, less critical to the Chinese leadership than it was five years ago when the initial controversy surrounding the app began.

According to Dimitar Gueorguiev, director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, this makes TikTok an “expendable concession.” He explained, “Chinese officials have allowed the issue to linger for years, reserving it as a problem they could eventually resolve to alleviate pressure from Washington. A deal now presents a lower cost to Beijing than when negotiations first started, while still maximizing the perception of compromise.”

In Beijing’s strategic calculations, the opportune moment to play the TikTok card is now, particularly as China, with its significant control over critical minerals, believes it possesses maximum leverage for discussions with Mr. Trump.

Li Daokui, a prominent economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, observed, “The Chinese side is far more experienced, possesses greater tolerance, and is considerably more tactical. They understand American desires and are adept at comprehending Trump’s negotiating style.”

To persuade Mr. Trump to reduce tariffs on China, Beijing might commit to increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans – a prospect the president has publicly championed – or perhaps acquire a substantial number of Boeing aircraft.

However, Beijing would need to act swiftly to fulfill any such pledges. It’s already late in the season for this year’s soybean crop, and Boeing’s order books are rapidly filling up. Moreover, China’s leaders face considerable risks when negotiating with an individual as unpredictable as Mr. Trump.

Dr. Sun noted, “They recognize the necessity of a trade deal to facilitate Trump’s visit to China, and they aim to ensure that any agreement is irreversible—that they don’t fully commit only to be betrayed by the U.S.” She added, “They cannot foresee if such a betrayal would occur again, but they understand the immense humiliation it would bring to the Chinese leader if it did.”

Despite these risks, Mr. Xi is expected to approach his meeting with Mr. Trump next month with a degree of confidence. Far from being isolated by U.S. pressure, he has demonstrated that Beijing maintains a robust network of international allies. Earlier this month, he presided over an elaborate military parade in Beijing, notably flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.

For months, Mr. Trump has expressed a keen interest in meeting the Chinese leader, whom he has frequently referred to as a “good friend” and openly admired. Momentum for such a high-level meeting has recently accelerated, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth engaging their Chinese counterparts in discussions.

The Trump administration has also taken actions perceived as favorable to China. For instance, Mr. Trump authorized the export of certain advanced AI chips manufactured by Nvidia to China. In June, the White House also advised President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan to cancel a planned stopover in New York, a visit that Beijing would undoubtedly have vehemently protested.

Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that Chinese leaders “have observed Trump’s willingness to negotiate on matters that were previously considered nonnegotiable.”

China’s primary objectives are to persuade Washington to relax export controls on crucial advanced chips and to reduce its support for Taiwan, which Beijing consistently claims as its sovereign territory.

According to Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, China hopes to convey that the United States is “more eager for a deal than the other way around.”

Chinese officials have stated that the preliminary agreement reached in Madrid earlier this week with their U.S. counterparts—the fourth round of talks in the past four months—extends beyond just TikTok, encompassing broader goals such as lowering investment barriers and fostering improved trade and economic cooperation.

During their recent Friday conversation, Mr. Xi urged the United States to refrain from imposing unilateral trade restrictions that could jeopardize progress in ongoing trade negotiations. He also expressed his hope that America would cultivate an “open and fair environment” to facilitate Chinese companies’ investments in the country.

In their previous phone conversation in June, Mr. Xi famously likened the relationship between the United States and China to a grand vessel, steered by two powerful helmsmen. He cautioned Mr. Trump to “avoid various disturbances or even sabotage,” implicitly referring to the more hawkish voices within the U.S. administration.

Mr. Wyne from the International Crisis Group noted, “There exist significant divergences in opinion between Trump and his advisors. China will likely endeavor to explore and exploit these differences to its advantage.”

The mere fact that the two leaders are communicating at all suggests to some observers that the relationship is beginning to stabilize. However, whether this positive trajectory continues will heavily depend on the outcome of their upcoming in-person meeting.

Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, remarked, “Until then, we cannot definitively claim that this is a relatively stable and predictable relationship. I believe we are moving in that direction, but the primary indicator will be the forthcoming summit.”

Pei-Lin Wu contributed to this report.