While Canada’s relationship with the United States has faced challenges under President Trump, its ties with China, the world’s other major superpower, have proven even more difficult. Mutual mistrust and deep-seated acrimony have severely damaged the bond between these two nations. Chinese actions, including the detention of Canadian citizens, public humiliation of a Canadian prime minister, and a harsh tariff war, have fueled significant anger. A recent poll highlighted this sentiment, revealing that Canadians generally trust China even less than they do the United States. An accompanying image shows Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada at a dinner hosted by the South Korean president, just before his meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping on Friday.
However, a glimmer of hope has emerged after the first formal meeting between the two nations’ leaders since 2017. The 40-minute discussion, held Friday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Gyeongju, South Korea, offers cautious optimism for improved relations. The very fact that Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Xi Jinping underscores how President Trump’s global tariff strategy and unpredictable foreign policy have compelled a traditional U.S. ally to seek engagement with China. Roland Paris, an international relations professor at the University of Ottawa, commented that “Trump is the invisible presence in every meeting between two leaders in the world today. For Canada, the primary overriding imperative is managing our relations with the United States, our closest trading partner.” He added that “if it’s possible to achieve relief on the Chinese tariffs, then that would be a great thing.”
Unlike a previous meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump in Busan, no specific deals were announced. Nevertheless, Mr. Carney expressed satisfaction, stating he was invited for further talks in Beijing. “This meeting today is long overdue,” Mr. Carney remarked. “We now have a turning point in the relationship.” A Chinese government summary indicated that Mr. Xi expressed willingness to “bring China-Canada relations back to a healthy, stable and sustainable track as soon as possible, so as to better benefit the people of both countries.”
Despite this positive rhetoric, tempered expectations are warranted. Relations deteriorated significantly after Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office in 2015, despite his initial efforts to improve ties. A major setback occurred in 2018 when a senior Chinese telecommunications executive was arrested in British Columbia at the request of the United States. Shortly after, China imprisoned two Canadian citizens. All three were eventually released in what amounted to a prisoner swap, an event that remains a source of deep resentment in Canada. Another photo features Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, the two Canadian men who were imprisoned in China following Canada’s arrest of a prominent Chinese telecommunications executive.
Further straining relations, Mr. Xi publicly rebuked Mr. Trudeau at a reception in Indonesia in 2022, accusing him of leaking details of a private conversation. This exchange was widely seen as a public dressing down. This year, a Canadian inquiry uncovered evidence of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, though it found no evidence of successful influence on election outcomes. More recently, China imposed tariffs of up to 100% on canola, a vital Canadian agricultural export, after Canada implemented its own 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
Despite these challenges, some experts see potential for a more constructive path forward. Lynette Ong, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, notes that “the world has changed quite dramatically compared to, let’s say, six months ago.” She attributes this to China’s struggling economy, which is prompting Mr. Xi to reconsider external relations. “When the economy was far stronger, he had sour relations with a bunch of countries — he did not care and he could afford to do so,” she explained. “Now they need to drive exports for economic recovery.” A subsequent image captures people welcoming Mr. Xi as his motorcade drove past Gimhae International Airport in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday.
Wang Di, the Chinese ambassador to Canada, suggested that ending Canadian electric-vehicle tariffs would “usher in the spring of improvement,” implying China would reciprocate by lifting canola levies. Domestically, Mr. Carney faces pressure from canola-producing provinces to remove the EV tariff. Canada’s effective ban on Chinese electric vehicles is a result of strong lobbying from Detroit automakers and the Canadian union Unifor. However, Greig Mordue, a professor at McMaster University and former Toyota Canada general manager, argues that these tariffs protect declining companies. He points out that General Motors, which once built 1.2 million vehicles annually in Canada, now produces only 100,000, with Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda dominating Canadian production.
Mr. Mordue proposes that Canada could revitalize its auto industry by adopting a policy similar to that used for Japanese carmakers: gradually phasing out tariffs on Chinese vehicles in exchange for Chinese companies building and increasing car production in Canada. However, this approach carries the risk of further backlash from the Trump administration, given the intense global competition between the U.S. and China. “The window is opening a bit, and that’s up to the government of Canada to figure out if they’re prepared to try to pry that window open a little bit more and deal with the inevitable outcome,” Mr. Mordue cautioned. The final image in the article shows an electric-vehicle battery factory in Windsor, Ontario, a joint venture between LG and Stellantis.
Xu Yanzhou, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinese media that a major shift by Ottawa towards China is improbable due to its long-standing security dependence on the U.S. and fears of Trump administration retaliation. She noted that Ottawa’s “defensiveness toward China remains prominent, and their stance on core sensitive areas has not fundamentally shifted.” The specific topics discussed by the two leaders were not disclosed, but Mr. Xi likely raised concerns about Canada’s foreign-investment laws, which have been used to block Chinese takeovers of Canadian natural resource companies on national security grounds. Nevertheless, China’s human rights record and its efforts to undermine democracies will inevitably constrain Mr. Carney’s offerings to Mr. Xi.
Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, summarized the dilemma: “It is a fraught challenge trying to find a basis on which to trade with a country with whom you disagree with in some fundamental ways. Yet the fact remains that both countries can benefit economically and politically as well from finding a common cause on which to work.” As he began his Asia tour in Malaysia, Mr. Carney acknowledged that talks with China were “starting from a very low base,” implying it offered room for growth. “There’s no preset offer,” Mr. Carney concluded. “This is the difference between relationship and transaction. We’re starting a relationship, building up the relationship.”