BRASILIA – Brazil is preparing for its highly anticipated COP30 climate summit, set to take place in the Amazon next month. The nation is making a bold gamble that this event can foster something increasingly rare in our fragmented world: genuine unity among nations to tackle the global climate crisis.
However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. The summit faces tough odds, including the likely absence of a critical and historically “hostile” United States, a noticeable decline in political enthusiasm for climate initiatives worldwide, and exorbitant accommodation prices that could deter potential attendees.
Approximately 50,000 participants are expected for the two-week COP30 conference, which begins on November 10th in Belem. This northern Brazilian city is modest and often overlooked, but it serves as a vital gateway to the sprawling Amazon rainforest.
Preparatory meetings have already begun in Brasilia, with climate ministers and representatives from 67 nations gathering for preliminary discussions ahead of the intensive UN negotiations. These annual talks are considered the most significant global forum for climate action.
Brazil’s Environment Minister, Marina Silva, underscored the urgency, stating the need to “prevent not just a point of no return for the planet’s climate, but also for climate multilateralism – a concept increasingly questioned amidst the failures to uphold past agreements.” Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, echoed this sentiment, urging countries to “go that little bit further” in their commitments leading up to the main summit.
Belem, a city deeply connected to the Amazon, offers a profoundly symbolic yet challenging backdrop for the conference. It was a personal choice for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who aims to leverage the location to highlight the rainforest’s critical role in absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Despite the symbolic power, there’s growing pressure for COP30 to deliver more than just a picturesque setting. The world is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C warming threshold agreed upon in the Paris climate accord a decade ago. The past two years have been the hottest on record, and major polluting nations are simply not reducing their emissions quickly enough to avert devastating and potentially irreversible changes to our planet.
Uncertain Attendance
President Lula, while slowing Amazon deforestation and advocating for global emission reductions, has also drawn criticism for what some perceive as a contradictory environmental stance. He has enthusiastically supported new oil drilling projects at home, arguing that the world isn’t yet ready to abandon fossil fuels.
Lula has extended invitations to dozens of world leaders for what he promises will be a “COP of truth.” Yet, attendance remains a concern, primarily due to sky-high accommodation costs. To address this, local organizers have resorted to enlisting schools, cruise ships, and even hourly-rate motels to offer more affordable options.
While Prince William is expected to represent King Charles of Britain, and leaders from South Africa and Colombia are anticipated, Austria’s president has already declined, explicitly citing the exorbitant hotel prices. Officials from Gambia, Cape Verde, and Japan have also indicated they plan to send smaller delegations.
“I know the problems in Belem,” admitted Lula, who has steadfastly refused calls to relocate the meeting. He famously vowed he would sleep “on a boat, in a hammock” if necessary. “We accepted the challenge of organizing COP here because we must show the world what the Amazon is,” he affirmed.
Tense Global Climate
Adding to the complexity, former US President Donald Trump, who controversially dismissed climate change as a “con job” in his recent UN address, is not expected to attend, nor is anyone from his current administration. The United States is also poised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for a second time, as it actively promotes fossil fuel extraction both domestically and internationally.
Brazil remains determined that COP30 will demonstrate that global climate solidarity can thrive, even as geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, and populist movements continue to destabilize the international order. The absence of the US, however, highlights a significant void in climate leadership, particularly as the European Union grapples with internal dissent regarding its own green agenda.
Ana Toni, CEO of COP30, acknowledged in a September interview that rallying for climate action in the current geopolitical landscape is “extremely difficult.” She observed, “COPs are not isolated. They reflect the tensions of geopolitics.”
While forests will undoubtedly be a central theme in Belem, Marta Torres-Gunfaus, from the sustainable development think tank IDDRI, cautioned against expecting “headlines or agreements on big, flashy issues” at COP30. A confrontation over sluggish climate action appears inevitable, with major players like India and the European Union already months behind in submitting their updated 2035 emissions reduction targets. Many pledges, including those from leading polluter China, have fallen short of expectations.
Furthermore, some of the world’s most vulnerable countries are pressing to reignite the contentious debate over the financial support they should receive from wealthier nations, who bear the primary responsibility for the climate crisis.