Bolivia is on the brink of a crucial presidential runoff, poised to elect one of two conservative candidates after two decades of left-wing governance.
In a surprising turn during August’s first round, Rodrigo Paz, a center-right figure and son of a former president, emerged as a frontrunner, climbing from the bottom of the polls to secure 32 percent of the vote. He now faces off against conservative ex-president Jorge Tuto Quiroga.
While recent polls suggest Quiroga currently leads, the race remains incredibly close and is widely considered a toss-up.
Here’s What You Need to Know:
- What are the key issues at stake?
- Who are the presidential candidates?
- What this election means for relations with the United States
- The vice-presidential race has ignited its own set of controversies.
- When will the election results be announced?
What Are the Key Issues at Stake?
The economy is undeniably the central theme of this election. Soaring prices, fuel shortages, and challenges in acquiring imported goods and U.S. dollars have fueled widespread public discontent.
The high cost of government-funded fuel subsidies has long been a topic of debate, yet their dismantling is widely seen as a politically risky move.
Beyond economic concerns, many voters are deeply frustrated by Bolivia’s turbulent political landscape and a judicial system often perceived as dysfunctional.
Bolivian political analyst Carlos Saavedra notes that while the economy is paramount, a broader crisis of faith in the country’s governance is also at play.
“There is a political crisis, an institutional crisis, and a social crisis,” Saavedra stated. He added that regardless of who wins, “you will have a firefighter government, arriving to put out fires.”
Who Are the Candidates?
Both candidates lean right, yet they present distinct approaches. Jorge Quiroga, U.S.-educated and with international experience, targets the business sector and advocates for more profound economic reforms.
He has openly proposed privatizing the energy sector, which the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party brought under state control two decades ago.
This conservative economic stance “makes some Bolivians very concerned about what could happen with some of the social programs that might be jeopardized,” explained Gustavo Flores-Macías, a professor of Latin American politics at the University of Maryland.
If Quiroga secures the victory, he added, “it’s because Bolivians are truly so tired of the status quo of the economy that they are willing to give that more extreme economic vision a chance.”
Rodrigo Paz, on the other hand, has focused on attracting former MAS supporters, rural voters, older demographics, and lower-income Bolivians. He pledges to safeguard social programs and manage Bolivia’s resources more efficiently, rather than relying on international organizations like the International Monetary Fund.
Despite the MAS party’s decline, many Bolivians still appreciate its historical focus on disadvantaged, rural, and indigenous communities, as well as its skepticism towards privatization and U.S. influence.
The party’s current difficulties “do not mean that people have now decided to embrace a center-right presidency,” Flores-Macías noted.
What This Election Means for U.S.-Bolivia Relations
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the runoff as a “promising step forward” after decades of “hostile and anti-American governance” in Bolivia.
Quiroga has consistently emphasized improving relations with Washington and attracting international investment. His pro-business stance and economic liberalization proposals resonate strongly with younger Bolivians.
Older voters, however, who recall the privatizations and economic policies of the 1980s and 1990s that led to price hikes and high unemployment, tend to favor Paz.
While Paz has expressed openness towards the United States, it hasn’t been a central theme of his campaign, a strategy that could benefit him in Sunday’s vote, according to Bolivian political analyst Verónica Rocha.
“He has tried to show that he is very much a local,” she stated.
The Vice-Presidential Race: Sparking the Real Fireworks
Much of the campaign’s controversy has surprisingly centered on the vice-presidential candidates.
Edmand Lara, a former police captain and Paz’s running mate, has garnered significant attention for his outsider status and social media savvy. During the first round, some voters found Lara more appealing than Paz himself.
Lara’s direct communication style has made him popular, though he has faced scrutiny over his political ambitions and criticisms of the media.
“Many times he has said that he wanted to be president,” Rocha noted. “He has a political culture that does not necessarily adhere to liberal democratic parameters.”
Quiroga’s running mate, Juan Pablo Velasco, a tech entrepreneur, is widely regarded as diligent and well-prepared.
However, Velasco has been hounded by the reappearance of several 15-year-old social media posts containing racist content.
One such post used a derogatory term to refer to indigenous Bolivians from the highlands and declared, “they must all be killed.”
Velasco has denied writing these posts, although two Bolivian fact-checking organizations have corroborated them.
Analysts assert that this controversy highlights the persistent racial and class issues in a nation with a large indigenous population and a predominantly white elite.
“He is a young entrepreneur from a business family, from a conservative class,” Saavedra, the analyst, commented. “In a way, he is the antithesis of the popular world, but touching on a deep issue in Bolivia, which is racism.”
When Will We Know the Results?
Voting on Sunday will take place between 8 a.m. and 4 p.m. local time, with initial results expected to start coming in around 8 p.m.
Genevieve Glatsky is a Times reporter based in Bogotá.