A prominent image shows Bill Gates gesturing, underscoring his call for a new strategic direction in addressing climate change.
Today’s DealBook newsletter covers these key stories:
* The “tough truths” behind climate policy.
* A comprehensive roundup of recent trade deals.
* An exclusive report on a livestream shopping startup securing major funding.
* Differing perspectives between investors and the public on the impact of artificial intelligence.
Andrew Ross Sorkin opens by highlighting Bill Gates’s recent shift in climate activism. Gates, the billionaire philanthropist, is challenging the prevalent “doomsday outlook,” asserting it “will not lead to humanity’s demise.” He’s recalibrating his focus towards “improving lives” rather than solely concentrating on limiting temperature increases.
Sorkin clarifies that Gates doesn’t see this as a reversal, but rather an expansion of perspective: while temperatures are rising, the fight shouldn’t be singularly focused on that. This nuanced position is expected to ignite considerable debate among climate advocates.
“Tough Truths”
After investing billions in combating climate change, Bill Gates has unveiled a significant “strategic pivot” in his approach. This new vision could potentially alienate some climate activists, yet it could also galvanize innovators seeking greater investment in transformative solutions.
In a recently published memo titled “Three tough truths about climate,” Gates unequivocally states that the “doomsday view” regarding climate change leading to “humanity’s demise” is a misconception. He further elaborates: “Unfortunately, the doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals, and it’s diverting resources from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world.”
It’s important to remember that Gates’s 2021 bestseller, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” outlined a framework for reducing emissions. However, he now writes that “Emissions projections have gone down, and with the right policies and investments, innovation will allow us to drive emissions down much further.” This perspective, however, isn’t universally accepted. The Paris climate pact, established a decade ago, aimed to curb emissions to keep global temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Last week, the UN Secretary-General stated that “overshooting is now inevitable.”
Looking ahead, Gates is urging policymakers at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Brazil to broaden their agenda beyond just emissions, focusing instead on intertwined issues like disease prevention and poverty reduction. He also voiced strong opinions on funding these efforts: “We can’t cut funding for health and development — programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change.” This comes as the Gates Foundation itself, following the Trump administration’s cuts to foreign aid, has ramped up its own contributions to health and poverty in developing nations.
Gates, who recently turned 70, expects his strategic shift to be controversial. He commented to reporters, “If you think climate is not important, you won’t agree with the memo. If you think climate is the only cause and apocalyptic, you won’t agree with the memo.”
Here’s What’s Happening
* Amazon Job Cuts: The online retail giant announced plans to lay off about 14,000 corporate employees, a number that some reports suggest could climb to 30,000. These reductions are part of a broader effort to cut costs and correct for overhiring during the initial phase of the pandemic. Meanwhile, PwC has reportedly halted plans to add 100,000 new employees, as recruitment experts signal a potential “Great Freeze” in the job market.
* David Solomon on Private Credit: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon downplayed concerns about systemic risks in the private credit market, speaking from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. His comments followed recent collapses, though some analysts remain wary of “shadow banks.” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon notably remarked, “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” reflecting broader anxieties.
* AMD & Energy Department Supercomputer Partnership: AMD and the Energy Department have inked a $1 billion partnership to build two supercomputers. These machines will handle complex, data-intensive experiments, with the goal of “supercharging” advancements in fusion energy, drug development, and defense technologies. The first computer is expected online within six months and will utilize AI chips similar to those used by OpenAI.
Trade Deals Roundup
The global stock market is pausing as investors await the outcomes of President Trump’s recent Asia trade tour.
Here’s the latest:
* Trump’s Japan Visit: While Trump’s visit to Japan generated headlines, specific details remained scarce. He and new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed two vaguely worded documents. One focused on cooperating to expand rare earth metal supply chains, and the other pertained to an initial trade framework announced by the Trump administration in July. Trump declared, “We are an ally at the strongest level,” but the White House’s trade release merely reaffirmed a “strong commitment to implementing this GREAT DEAL,” without specific details on Japan’s promised purchases of US agricultural products or its $550 billion investment in the US. The agreement to boost critical minerals supply also lacked specifics. Notably, Trump had previously announced similar deals with Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, aiming to reduce global reliance on China for these resources. Takaichi, however, did commit to increasing Japan’s military spending to 2 percent of GDP by March, two years ahead of schedule, aligning with the Trump administration’s push for allies to shoulder more defense costs.
* Focus on China: Trump’s scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea is still on. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed discussions would include the US-China trade deal framework, fentanyl, rare earth minerals, and Chinese agricultural purchases. Xi, for his part, is expected to seek a softening of US diplomatic support for Taiwan.
* Mexico-US Trade: The Mexican peso saw a boost following news that Mexico and the US agreed to extend a November 1st deadline by several weeks to finalize a trade deal, thereby postponing potential tariffs.
Exclusive: A Livestream Shopping Start-up Raises Funding
Livestream shopping, often described as the e-commerce equivalent of QVC for the TikTok generation, has seen a rise in popularity in Western markets. DealBook is the first to report that Whatnot, a prominent player in this sector, is set to announce a significant new funding round at a high valuation.
* Whatnot’s Latest Investment: The Los Angeles-based company is expected to reveal on Tuesday that it has raised $225 million, pushing its valuation to $11.5 billion. This new capital injection comes less than a year after its previous round valued the company at just under $5 billion. The funding round was led by DST Global and CapitalG (Google’s growth-capital investment arm), with participation from new investor Sequoia Capital, alongside Greycroft, Andreessen Horowitz, Avra, and BOND. Additionally, Whatnot plans to allow existing shareholders to sell up to $126 million in stock.
* Betting on Livestream Popularity: This investment underscores strong confidence in the booming livestream shopping trend. Originating in China in 2016, this format involves sellers broadcasting live presentations of their products, sometimes as elaborate shows.
* Rapid Growth & Challenges: Whatnot, which started in 2019 by selling Funko collectible figurines, has expanded rapidly, now boasting over $6 billion in goods sold on its platform – double its total from late 2024. Viewers average over 80 minutes per livestream, and the company offers a diverse range of categories, from fashion to electronics and plants. Laela Sturdy, a managing partner at CapitalG and a Whatnot board member, noted that “We have gained conviction with each round.” However, Whatnot faces substantial competition from both specialized livestream platforms and established giants like Amazon, Poshmark, and TikTok Shop. The overall growth rate of the live shopping industry, projected to reach $60.6 billion by 2028 (up from $49 billion this year), is expected to slow, and sales in China still significantly overshadow those in other regions. Despite these hurdles, Whatnot CEO Grant LaFontaine told DealBook that the company aims to expand into more international markets by the end of 2026, including potential entry into Asia, specifically Japan.
Where Investors and the Public Differ on A.I.
The widespread belief that artificial intelligence (AI) will dramatically boost workplace productivity has fueled significant corporate adoption and investment. Unsurprisingly, a recent JUST Capital survey found that 96 percent of investors are highly optimistic about AI’s potential for productivity gains in the workplace.
* Public Skepticism: However, the general public shares a more cautious view, with only 47 percent of non-investors surveyed believing AI will have a positive impact in this area.
* Agreement on Safety: Both groups did agree on one crucial point: the necessity of investing more in AI safety. A majority (57 percent of investors and 53 percent of all others polled) advocate for companies to allocate over 5 percent of their total AI investment toward “guardrails” to prevent adverse societal or group-specific impacts.
The Speed Read
* Deals: Keurig Dr Pepper shares surged after news of a $7 billion fundraising from Apollo and KKR to finance its acquisition of JDE Peet’s. Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, announced plans to sell international assets, just days after facing new US sanctions.
* Politics, Policy and Regulation: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is reportedly poised to prevent states from excluding medical debt from some individual credit reports. The largest federal workers’ union urged Congress to pass a spending bill to end the government shutdown, effectively siding with Republicans against Democratic efforts.
* Best of the Rest: An investigation into “Inside the Trump family’s global crypto cash machine.” JPMorgan Chase has reportedly allowed employees to use its internal AI chatbot for generating year-end performance reviews.
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