A looming cosmic event has captured the attention of scientists: Asteroid 2024 YR4 is on a potential collision course with Earth’s moon, with impact predicted for 2032. While initial concerns about this asteroid hitting Earth have subsided thanks to refined trajectory models, its potential encounter with the moon is now a focus of study.
Discovered last year, Asteroid 2024 YR4 initially presented a 3% chance of impacting Earth. However, subsequent analyses have ruled out this possibility. The asteroid, estimated to be about 60 meters wide and potentially rocky, now has a 4% chance of hitting the moon.
A team of over a dozen researchers, including scientists from NASA, have published a paper exploring strategies to mitigate a potential lunar impact. This research, led by Brent Barbee from the University of Maryland and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, outlines three primary methods for dealing with Asteroid 2024 YR4:
Deflection
This approach involves giving the asteroid a slight nudge to alter its trajectory, ensuring it misses the moon. NASA successfully demonstrated a similar concept with its DART mission in 2022. However, applying this to 2024 YR4 is complicated by uncertainty about its composition. A forceful nudge could potentially break the asteroid into smaller pieces, some of which might still pose a threat to the moon. The paper notes that “Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical.”
Robust Disruption
If deflection is not feasible, the next option is robust disruption. This strategy aims to break the asteroid into fragments no larger than 10 meters, rendering them harmless. Researchers suggest that a more powerful version of the DART spacecraft could achieve this, with available launch windows aligning before the potential 2032 impact.
Nuclear Explosion
The most potent method involves detonating a nuclear device near the asteroid. A standoff blast could vaporize the asteroid’s surface, causing it to shatter. The paper estimates that a 1-megaton device, detonated approximately 85 meters away, could effectively break even the heaviest potential configuration of 2024 YR4.
Potential Lunar Impact Scenario
Should the asteroid strike the moon as predicted, it could dislodge a significant amount of lunar debris. Some of this ejected material might reach Earth’s orbit, potentially endangering satellites and spacecraft. As the researchers noted, “This could produce debris up to 1,000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft.”