Meet Hans Schreurs, a thriving 66-year-old snack bar owner in Venlo, Netherlands. His business is booming, he’s a homeowner, and his deep-fried breaded eggs, called ‘friet-ei,’ have made him and his wife local celebrities. Despite his success, Mr. Schreurs harbors concerns that his grandchildren face increased competition from immigrants for opportunities. This worry drives his decision to vote for Geert Wilders and the far-right Party for Freedom in the upcoming parliamentary election.
From behind the counter of his retro-style fry shop, Automatiek Piccadilly, Mr. Schreurs recently stated, ‘This country is getting too full.’
Geert Wilders, a prominent far-right politician, consistently uses strong anti-immigrant language to keep migration a central issue, frequently connecting it to the country’s severe housing crisis and rising crime rates, often without clear evidence. He recently advocated for a total halt to asylum applications and military deployment to secure national borders. Kicking off his campaign in Venlo last September, Wilders dramatically warned that the Netherlands was hurtling towards a ‘multicultural hell.’
This election serves as a crucial test to determine if these aggressive messages will continue to resonate with Dutch voters, especially after his party’s surprising rise to parliamentary dominance two years prior.
Beyond simply choosing 150 lawmakers, this election is a direct referendum on the far-right movement, which has dramatically altered Dutch politics but has struggled to translate its fiery rhetoric into actual policy. Venlo, Geert Wilders’s hometown on the German border, perfectly mirrors the national tensions, reflecting a broader trend seen in many affluent countries where populist politicians have gained significant influence.
Like the rest of the Netherlands, Venlo, a city of 100,000, faces an aging population and a strong demand for labor from local businesses. However, severe housing costs and growing anxieties about the influx of newcomers, particularly asylum seekers, are becoming increasingly prominent public concerns.
Sonny Evers, owner of Café de Blauw Trap, a popular Old Town pub that hosted Wilders’s campaign launch, observed, ‘You feel it, actually, it’s brewing.’ He noted that immigration concerns dominate local political talks, citing recent protests, counter-protests, and intense debates surrounding a proposed asylum center. Sitting at a dark wood table amidst the chatter of afternoon regulars, he added, ‘It’s quite in the open now. It had been for a long time that it was not talked about.’
Wilders is largely credited for this shift. His outspoken anti-Islam rhetoric has been a constant feature of Dutch politics for many years, gaining particular prominence after his party’s unexpected landslide victory in 2023 propelled them into power.
He has been the undeniable central figure of this election season since its very beginning. Wilders and his PVV party triggered this election by abruptly withdrawing from the ruling coalition in June, citing frustration over the government’s perceived failure to adopt a tougher stance on immigration.
Despite plunging national politics into disarray, Wilders’ party is still favored to win the most votes, according to recent polls. However, they are expected to lose parliamentary seats as their momentum wanes. Other major parties have vowed to exclude them from coalition negotiations, significantly diminishing Wilders’s prospects of becoming prime minister.
With at least 27 parties competing, 16 are likely to secure parliamentary representation. No single party is expected to form a clear majority, and with a significant portion of voters still undecided, the election’s final outcome remains highly unpredictable.
While Dutch voters are known for last-minute decisions, the current widespread indecision also stems from a palpable sense of disillusionment evident throughout Venlo. A core challenge for the Netherlands is that problems like housing affordability are deeply entrenched.
As one of Europe’s most densely populated nations, much of the Netherlands lies below sea level and is interlaced with canals, making construction both expensive and environmentally difficult. While cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht feel these pressures most acutely, the housing crisis is now impacting smaller towns such as Venlo.
Some political factions have proposed elaborate plans to tackle housing expenses, suggesting measures such as tax breaks for first-time buyers or streamlining house-sharing regulations. Conversely, other parties frequently lay the blame for the housing crunch on immigrants. Immigration undeniably contributes to population growth, which can increase competition for housing. However, the actual impact of lower-skilled immigrants on home prices is often a complex and nuanced issue.
Although the Netherlands has experienced a recent surge in migration due to refugees from Ukraine, a significant portion of public frustration is directed at migrants from North Africa and other non-European regions, many of whom settled in the country decades ago.
Across Venlo and wider parts of the country, residents voice concerns that asylum seekers will strain the housing market and frequently associate migrants with increased crime fears.
Recently, local attention in Venlo has centered on plans to convert an old monastery into a temporary residential facility for asylum seekers. This proposal sparked a protest of several hundred people near the Venlo harbor in September, which was met by a slightly smaller counter-protest.
Bruno Pijpers, a protest participant and opponent of the center, emphasized, ‘It’s about security.’ He explained that he and his neighbors fear potential threats to the community from the young men expected to reside there.
While migrants appear in Dutch crime statistics at a higher proportional rate than native-born citizens, these rates, already low, have consistently declined for over a decade across all demographic groups.
Venlo’s official city poet, Emirhan X, is a vocal proponent of the asylum center and has been overtly critical of the protesters, leading Mr. Pijpers to file a formal complaint against him. The poet defended his stance, saying, ‘I just called them right-wing extremists; and unfortunately, that’s just what they are.’ He added, ‘This might be the most tense election ever.’
Conversely, some argue that migrants are indispensable to Dutch society. In Venlo, migrants constitute roughly 19% of the population, slightly higher than the national average of 16%. In recent years, migration has been the sole driver of the country’s population growth. Without a growing workforce and consumer base, economic expansion becomes challenging.
Marcel Tabbers, director of Venlo Partners, a local marketing group, plainly stated, ‘We need people to work.’
Within Venlo, public sentiment towards the protracted populist movement appears divided. As evening descended and lights reflected on the Meuse River, a small group of young people gathered around a street post. It bore a poster of Mr. Wilders, a rare sight in the town. The reason for his blond-framed face’s scarcity quickly became apparent. The teenagers, who preferred to remain anonymous, promptly tore down the poster.