Top aides to President Trump are intensifying their efforts to remove Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. U.S. officials indicate that discussions include a sweeping campaign designed to escalate military pressure, aiming to force Maduro out of office.
This aggressive strategy is spearheaded by Marco Rubio, who serves as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. Rubio maintains that Maduro is an illegitimate leader who facilitates drug exports to the United States, presenting what he describes as an “imminent threat.”
Recently, the U.S. military has carried out deadly attacks on civilian vessels, which the administration claims were involved in drug smuggling for Venezuelan criminal organizations. Officials confirm that Rubio is developing an even more assertive plan, drawing on intelligence from the C.I.A. in an effort to step up pressure. In parallel, the Pentagon has amassed over 6,500 troops in the Caribbean region.
Both John Ratcliffe, director of the intelligence agency, and Stephen Miller, President Trump’s chief domestic policy adviser, are reportedly in favor of Rubio’s proposed approach.
Moreover, the U.S. military has been developing plans for potential operations directly targeting suspected drug traffickers within Venezuela. These actions, however, await White House approval, according to current and former officials.
Such operations would aim to disrupt Venezuela’s drug production and trafficking networks, effectively increasing pressure on Maduro.
Administration officials justify these measures by claiming Maduro leads Venezuela’s cartel network, allowing them to frame his removal as a crucial counternarcotics mission.
Rubio frequently refers to the Justice Department’s 2020 indictment of Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. He has publicly labeled Maduro a “fugitive from American justice” and the leader of a “terrorist and organized crime organization” that has seized control of Venezuela.
Meanwhile, prominent figures within the Venezuelan opposition report that they are strategizing for a post-Maduro era and have been in communication with the Trump administration regarding this potential transition.
While the White House has not commented on these alleged exchanges, Trump administration officials have not confirmed the existence of such discussions.
This aggressive stance follows a still-classified order signed by President Trump in July, authorizing the U.S. military to use force against drug cartels designated as terrorist organizations by his administration. This directive led to a significant naval buildup by the Pentagon in the Caribbean.
These actions escalated with U.S. military strikes on civilian boats. Since September 2, President Trump has announced three such operations in international waters, resulting in at least 17 deaths, without providing a clear legal justification for these attacks. While he stated the first two strikes targeted Venezuelans, the nationality of those killed in the third operation remains undisclosed. Reports had previously indicated planning for expanded military operations within Venezuela.
Rubio held a meeting in May with five opposition figures who had covertly traveled to the United States in what he termed a “precise operation.” He has publicly lauded opposition leader María Corina Machado, affectionately calling her the “Venezuelan Iron Lady” in a recent tribute.
Pedro Urruchurtu, an advisor to Machado, confirmed in an interview that the opposition has a 100-hour transition plan post-Maduro’s removal. This plan involves transferring power to Edmundo González, who was Maduro’s presidential opponent last year.
Independent election monitors previously reported that last year’s election was tainted by fraud, identifying González, now exiled in Spain, as the rightful victor.
“We are discussing an operation to dismantle a criminal structure, which necessitates various actions and tools,” Urruchurtu stated. He emphasized that “it must be accomplished through the use of force, as defeating a regime like this would otherwise be impossible.”
The opposition’s strategy also includes lobbying other governments for diplomatic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement support.
Another senior, exiled Venezuelan opposition member, who chose to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic, confirmed ongoing discussions with several U.S. agencies.
The State Department reiterated that the administration’s primary focus remains combating drug cartels.
When asked for comment, State Department Deputy Spokesman Tommy Pigott asserted, “Maduro is not Venezuela’s legitimate leader; he is a fugitive from American justice who jeopardizes regional security and endangers Americans. We seek his apprehension and justice.”
He further clarified that “the U.S. is involved in a counterdrug cartel operation, and any assertions of coordination on matters outside this specific objective are entirely baseless.”
International law typically prohibits the use of force in another sovereign nation without its consent or a United Nations Security Council resolution. However, the U.S. government under the Biden administration previously recognized González as the legitimate winner of the 2024 election. If González were to publicly endorse an intervention, the Trump administration could argue this constitutes consent.
During his initial term, President Trump supported a different opposition leader’s failed uprising against Maduro and implemented severe sanctions on Venezuela. However, the current initiatives seem significantly broader, particularly due to the recent U.S. military actions and the ongoing troop buildup.
Only a select group of officials are engaged in the White House’s Venezuela planning. Some sources familiar with these discussions indicate that Rubio and his allies initially sought methods to remove Maduro without direct U.S. military intervention.
The ‘Fugitive’
Recently, Rubio has forcefully articulated the Trump administration’s commitment to holding Maduro accountable for the Justice Department indictment.
The State Department has even raised a reward to $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s arrest and conviction on drug-related charges.
As a Republican Senator from Florida and the son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio was a key figure in the first Trump administration’s attempts to oust Maduro. He has consistently maintained that Maduro’s removal would undermine Venezuela’s ally, the Communist government in Cuba.
Rubio and numerous Republican politicians recognize the issue’s significant impact on Florida voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent, many of whom are vocal opponents of their home countries’ current governments.
While President Trump has not explicitly called for Maduro’s ouster, he has publicly touted the new military campaign in the Caribbean.
“We have recently unleashed the supreme power of the United States military to dismantle Venezuelan terrorists and trafficking networks under Nicolás Maduro’s command,” he declared during a recent address at the U.N. General Assembly.
He added a stark warning: “We will blow you out of existence.”
Rubio has stated that President Trump intends to “wage war on narco-terrorist organizations,” even without explicit congressional authorization for such a conflict.
Legal experts, however, contend that the lethal military strikes on suspected drug smuggling vessels are unlawful.
The White House defends these attacks as acts of self-defense, citing approximately 100,000 American overdose deaths annually. It’s worth noting that the recent spike in these deaths is primarily linked to fentanyl, a substance largely produced in Mexican labs, not South America, for the U.S. market.
In a statement, the White House affirmed, “As the president has stated, Maduro must cease sending drugs and criminals to our nation. He is prepared to deploy every facet of American power to prevent illicit drugs from entering our country and to bring those responsible to justice.”
In 2019, Rubio, alongside then-National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, backed Juan Guaidó, a Venezuelan opposition leader who sought to depose Maduro.
Guaidó’s attempt to ignite an uprising, despite some military backing, ultimately failed. A subsequent coup attempt the following year, organized by a former U.S. Green Beret, also proved unsuccessful.
Despite a clear public desire for change in Venezuela, the opposition continues to face a challenging political environment.
During last year’s election, approximately 70 percent of the populace voted for González, based on paper tallies gathered by the opposition. The Carter Center, an independent election monitoring group, validated the accuracy of these counts.
However, the Venezuelan military has maintained its loyalty to Maduro, even amidst years of inadequate pay and political suppression.
Drugs and Diplomacy
Conversely, some senior U.S. officials, particularly Richard Grenell, President Trump’s envoy to Venezuela and executive director of the Kennedy Center, contend that any forceful attempt to remove Maduro would be a mistake.
These officials caution that broadening the Venezuelan campaign into a regime-change operation risks entangling the United States in a prolonged war, a scenario President Trump has pledged to avoid.
Grenell and his allies advocate for diplomatic negotiation as the most effective means to safeguard American economic interests in Venezuela.
Grenell has frequently clashed with Rubio on various administrative issues, including strategies for securing the release of American hostages from Maduro’s government. Grenell successfully negotiated the release of several American hostages and secured an agreement for Venezuela to repatriate undocumented immigrants held by the Trump administration. The broader objectives President Trump has tasked Grenell with achieving through these talks remain confidential.
At a recent Conservative Political Action Committee event in Paraguay, Grenell asserted that diplomatic solutions are still viable.
“I believe in diplomacy,” he stated, “and I believe in avoiding war.”
In an interview, Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez maintained that her country is not a significant drug producer or exporter. She expressed “no doubt that one of the strategic objectives” of the Trump administration is “regime change.”
Rodríguez indicated Venezuela’s desire to continue discussions with Grenell and to normalize economic ties with the United States. She suggested that President Trump’s supporters voted for economic growth, “not more wars.”
Earlier this month, Maduro sent a three-page letter to President Trump, unequivocally denying that Venezuela exports drugs.
The letter, dated September 6, proposed talks to de-escalate tensions, according to sources briefed on its contents. It remained unpublicized until September 21, when Rodríguez published it online, stating it had been delivered to Washington via an intermediary.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirmed last week that the administration received the letter but promptly dismissed its contents.
The United Nations reports that the majority of coca, the raw material for cocaine, originates in Colombia, with smaller amounts from Peru and Bolivia. Although some cocaine transits through Venezuela from South America, a 2020 D.E.A. report indicates that Venezuela is not a primary source of drugs destined for the U.S.
Venezuela’s Foreign Minister, Yván Gil, offered his nation’s continued acceptance of twice-weekly deportation flights from the United States as evidence of its commitment to diplomacy.
“We are prepared to discuss all necessary matters with a neighboring nation, a country of significant economic and military power,” Gil stated. He warned that a major conflict would result in “excessive migration” and economic collapse, threatening to “destabilize the entire region.”
However, Gil made it clear that one topic is non-negotiable: Maduro’s departure from power.
(Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Maria Abi-Habib from Mexico City.)