The United States has dramatically escalated its military presence off the coast of Venezuela, including the destruction of several boats in the Caribbean Sea. From Caracas, Julie Turkewitz reports on how Venezuelans are responding to these actions.
President Trump’s intentions for Venezuela have been gradually unfolding, and it’s clear that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is feeling the pressure. The U.S. military has significantly ramped up its presence in the Caribbean, dispatching warships, surveillance aircraft, and an attack submarine. In one incident, 17 people were killed when the U.S. attacked Venezuelan boats, claiming they were involved in drug smuggling, though without presenting evidence.
The Trump administration has labeled Maduro a “cartel leader” and a “fugitive of American justice.” Many current and former U.S. officials believe the unspoken objective behind these actions is to remove him from power – essentially, to achieve regime change.
This aggressive stance seems to contradict Trump’s past campaign promises to avoid “foreign wars.” However, my colleague Julie Turkewitz, who recently spent a week on the ground in Venezuela and has extensive regional reporting experience, suggests that Trump may view the situation differently. We discussed this in detail in a recent conversation.
Maduro’s future hinges on a crucial question: Does the Trump administration perceive its actions in Venezuela as a traditional “foreign war” to be avoided, or as a necessary operation to safeguard American interests in its own immediate region?
When Intervention Leads to Chaos: ‘You Turn Venezuela into Haiti’
Certainly, many Venezuelans would be relieved to see Maduro’s departure. He stands accused of grave human rights abuses, including torture and forced disappearances. Despite losing the 2024 election as confirmed by independent monitors, he clung to power. Some opposition figures, like María Corina Machado, have openly expressed support for U.S. military assistance in removing him.
However, Julie’s recent reporting from Venezuela revealed a different sentiment among many citizens. Given the region’s complex history of U.S. military interventions and support for authoritarian regimes, there’s a profound resistance to the notion of American-orchestrated change.
Local diplomats and business leaders voiced strong concerns that military intervention could trigger widespread violence and instability. A governmental collapse could lead to a fierce power struggle among various armed factions, including the Venezuelan military, Colombian guerrilla groups, and paramilitary gangs, all vying for control of Venezuela’s rich resources like oil and gold.
As one businessman bluntly told Julie, “You kill Maduro, you turn Venezuela into Haiti.” This sentiment highlights a deep fear of the potential for uncontrolled chaos.
Following protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the mere mention of “America” and “regime change” sends shivers down spines, both domestically and internationally. Venezuela’s government appears to be exploiting this apprehension, with its vice president reportedly telling Julie that the American populace “do not want war in the Caribbean.”
Revisiting the “Sphere of Influence”
During his presidential campaign, Trump explicitly vowed to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. However, his platform also emphasized strong measures against drug smuggling and the deportation of undocumented immigrants to Latin America. He also gained traction among Hispanic voters who harbored strong opposition to socialist governments, particularly those in Venezuela and its close ally, Cuba.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been a vocal proponent of regime change in Venezuela, stating on Fox News, “We’re not going to have a cartel, operating or masquerading as a government, operating in our own hemisphere.”
According to Julie, this emphasis on America’s “own hemisphere” indicates that administration officials might categorize Venezuela differently from distant conflicts like those in Ukraine or Iraq. They might view Venezuela as a nation intimately tied to their core concerns, located geographically close to home—essentially, a country within America’s traditional sphere of influence.
The notable military escalation near Venezuela’s coast is just one illustration of the Trump administration’s broader interventionist stance toward Latin America. This approach has included threats to seize the Panama Canal, bomb Mexican drug laboratories, and active involvement in Brazil’s domestic politics to support former President Jair Bolsonaro. More recently, a $20 billion loan was extended to bolster the political standing of Argentina’s President Javier Milei.
While some of these actions stem from ideological alignment—Trump views Bolsonaro and Milei as allies and Maduro as an adversary—an assertive focus on America’s immediate region could soon become official U.S. policy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly finalizing a new national defense strategy that prominently features “protecting the homeland and the Western Hemisphere” as a top priority.
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