In just the past three weeks, Russia has dramatically ramped up its aggressive actions across Europe. This includes drones violating Polish and Romanian airspace, fighter jets breaching Estonian territory, a German Navy frigate being ‘buzzed’ in the Baltic Sea, and an aggressive, covert campaign to influence Moldova’s upcoming election.
These aren’t isolated incidents; they represent a concentrated escalation over a very short period.
Such a flurry of activity has sent shivers through European capitals. Officials are growing increasingly concerned that Moscow is deliberately intensifying its antagonism across the continent, especially as the United States’ commitment to countering Russia appears to waver under President Trump’s leadership.
The unease has spread even to Scandinavia this week. Airports in both Denmark and Norway experienced shutdowns due to mysterious drone sightings. Denmark’s prime minister openly stated she could not dismiss Russia as the cause. Predictably, the Kremlin has denied any involvement, dismissing Europe’s mounting anxieties as nothing more than ‘exalted hysteria.’
However, apart from Ukraine, no other European nation is currently experiencing the full weight of Russian influence as intensely as Moldova.
This Sunday, a crucial parliamentary election in Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of 2.4 million, hangs in the balance. The outcome will determine if the nation continues its journey towards the European Union under President Maia Sandu or if it drifts back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. Russia has aggressively targeted Ms. Sandu’s pro-European party, deploying a relentless series of influence operations designed to destabilize her government, actions that have only intensified as the election nears.
President Sandu delivered a powerful rebuttal this week, following Moldovan authorities’ announcement of 74 arrests and claims of foiling a Russian-backed plot to incite widespread unrest through criminal elements.
“The Kremlin thinks we are all for sale, that we are too insignificant to resist, that we are merely a territory, not a country,” President Sandu declared to her nation on Monday. “But Moldova is our home, and our home is not for sale.”
In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov accused President Sandu of attempting to suppress the voices of Moldovan citizens who desire closer ties with Moscow.
Analysts interpret these numerous Russian maneuvers as calculated provocations, designed to test Europe’s vulnerabilities and gauge its reaction capabilities.
“There’s a palpable sense that something fundamental has changed,” observed Eric Rubin, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington and former U.S. ambassador to Bulgaria. “My suspicion is that this is a deliberate testing phase.”
NATO Under Scrutiny: A Challenging Period
Just last week, not long after the drone incident in Poland, Italian F-35 fighter jets were rapidly dispatched over the Gulf of Finland. Their mission: to intercept Russian MiG-31 warplanes that had briefly entered Estonian airspace for about 12 minutes. The Italian pilots even got close enough to witness the Russian pilots waving.
Colonel Gaetano Farina, the Italian commander of the NATO task force overseeing the region, stated that the Russian jets, which had deliberately turned off their transponders, were intercepted immediately upon entering Estonian airspace. The Italian jets performed a wing-rocking maneuver, a universal signal for interception. The Russian pilots then complied, allowing the Italian aircraft to escort them back into international airspace and towards the Russian border near Kaliningrad.
During the Russian fighters’ brief incursion into Estonian airspace — extending about five miles deep at its furthest point — the Italian pilots identified the weaponry onboard, Colonel Farina confirmed. He noted they were carrying air-to-air missiles, not bombs, a detail that led Estonian officials to believe a direct attack on their civilian population was improbable.
Despite clear evidence, Russia has continued to deny any violation of international airspace, a stance that has deeply angered Estonian officials. They have repeatedly warned that Russia’s aggressive ambitions might not be confined to Ukraine, especially given Estonia’s 183-mile shared border with Russia.
Already, subtle divisions are becoming apparent within Europe regarding the most effective strategy for responding to Russia’s renewed aggression.
Earlier this week, Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, issued a stark warning, threatening military retaliation against any Russian aircraft that dares to enter Polish airspace again.
In contrast, Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, cautioned against such drastic measures, stating that shooting down Russian planes would be counterproductive. He urged other NATO members to avoid falling into what he termed President Vladimir V. Putin’s ‘escalation trap.’
“Prudence is not cowardice,” Mr. Pistorius emphasized, “but rather a profound sense of responsibility toward one’s own nation and for maintaining peace across Europe.”
At the United Nations on Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that any act of aggression against Russia “would be met with a decisive response.”
Much of Europe’s current apprehension stems from lingering doubts about the United States’ willingness to uphold its post-World War II role as Western Europe’s security guarantor, particularly under a President Trump, who has long expressed skepticism about NATO.
Earlier this week, President Trump offered a glimmer of reassurance to European leaders by describing Mr. Putin’s military as a ‘paper tiger’ and suggesting that Ukraine could reclaim its lost territories with Europe’s collective assistance.
While President Trump also advocated for NATO nations to shoot down Russian aircraft that breach their airspace, his support for such actions remained conditional, stating, “That depends on the circumstances” when questioned directly.
European allies, however, are seeking a far more unequivocal and steadfast commitment.
Žygimantas Pavilionis, Lithuania’s former ambassador to the United States and a current member of Parliament, criticized President Trump’s seemingly ‘warm welcome’ of Mr. Putin at last month’s Alaska summit. He argued that this gesture only emboldened Moscow, leading directly to intensified missile attacks on Ukraine and alarming new incursions into NATO-controlled areas.
“I will always defend America,” he stated passionately, “but I truly need to see concrete action from my beloved America.”
Moldova at a Critical Crossroads
In Moldova, President Sandu’s pro-Western political agenda has vigorously pursued the nation’s integration into the European Union. This includes successfully holding a referendum last year that endorsed EU membership and pushing through essential reforms to meet qualification criteria.
President Sandu, an alumna of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, has undeniably provoked Moscow’s ire. Her strong pro-Europe position, coupled with decisive actions to dismantle the Kremlin’s deep-rooted influence within Moldova, has created significant tension.
Analysts suggest that Russia perceives these elections as a prime opportunity to undermine one of the most pro-Western leaders in a region the Kremlin considers its historical sphere of influence. This small nation has emerged as the newest and most active battleground in Russia’s ongoing, multi-year campaign to discredit Western democracy and elevate leaders sympathetic to Moscow, mirroring similar online influence efforts seen in recent German and French elections.
While President Sandu herself is not up for re-election, her party faces the risk of losing its parliamentary majority. Such a defeat would be a significant setback for the EU’s ambitions in the region and could usher in a period of political instability, ripe for Moscow’s exploitation.
Anastasia Pociumban, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, explained that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine inadvertently diminished Moscow’s leverage over other post-Soviet states, including Moldova. Moldova’s government seized this opportunity, accelerating its pursuit of EU membership and severing economic ties with Russia. Now, Moscow views the upcoming election as a chance to reverse these developments.
“Although Russia is currently a weaker geopolitical player, it remains determined to keep Moldova within its sphere of influence,” stated Ms. Pociumban.
President Sandu’s administration has openly accused the Kremlin of orchestrating a massive scheme, allegedly planning to spend 100 million euros to fund political campaigns, disseminate disinformation, and incite protests aimed at discrediting the election results. In past elections, Moldovan authorities have also reported Russia-linked groups attempting to bribe voters.
The Moldovan government contends that many of these subversive efforts are channeled through Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan businessman who has found refuge in Russia. His persistent attempts to bolster pro-Moscow politicians within Moldova have been a source of significant frustration for the leadership in Chisinau for a considerable time.
Ms. Sandu has issued dire warnings that Moldova’s independence is at stake, asserting that a victory for pro-Russia politicians could transform the country into a launchpad for Moscow to invade Ukraine’s adjacent Odesa region.
The day after President Sandu’s speech, Russia’s foreign intelligence service released a counter-statement, alleging that European forces were preparing to invade and occupy Moldova. Their purported goal: to establish a ‘Euro-democracy’ dictatorship led by Ms. Sandu after the election.
Western analysts quickly interpreted this Russian statement as a classic case of projection, believing Moscow was attributing its own potential aggressive intentions to Europe. This tactic aimed to ignite fear among Moldovan voters about being drawn into the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Concurrently, online accounts linked to Russia falsely circulated images, claiming to show French forces already present in the country.
The Kremlin vehemently rejected Ms. Sandu’s allegations, instead accusing her government of actively suppressing the legitimate political views of pro-Russia Moldovans.
Russia has unleashed a relentless flood of online disinformation, meticulously crafted to paint Ms. Sandu’s government as corrupt, autocratic, and aggressively warmongering. This campaign has propagated bizarre and unfounded claims, including allegations that Ms. Sandu plotted to obtain celebrity sperm donations, promoted LGBTQ+ issues while on George Soros’s payroll, and unilaterally declared a state of military emergency.
According to NewsGuard, a firm specializing in tracking disinformation, these fabricated narratives have collectively amassed over 17 million views online since July alone.
Ms. Pociumban highlighted Moscow’s core message: that Ms. Sandu’s government is merely an EU-controlled dictatorship, recklessly leading Moldova towards chaos and a fate similar to Ukraine or Georgia, where defiance of the Kremlin’s will resulted in conflict and decline.
Oleg Matveychev, a member of Russia’s ruling United Russia party in Parliament, perfectly summarized the Kremlin’s narrative, issuing a stern warning that Moldova’s upcoming vote would ultimately decide if the country transforms into a ‘second Ukraine.’
Moldova’s economy has faced significant hardship due to the ongoing conflict in neighboring Ukraine. The pro-Russian opposition is actively attempting to capitalize on these economic difficulties, framing the upcoming election as a chance for voters to protest the current government’s policies.
Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, stated that Russia’s primary objective in Moldova is to exploit existing domestic tensions and challenges, which are numerous, to impede Moldova’s progress towards European integration. He concluded that Moscow’s goal is to pull Moldova back into a ‘geopolitical gray zone.’