Ukrainian military intelligence has alleged that Russia intentionally sent drones into the airspace of NATO-member Poland this month. This act, they claim, was designed to probe the alliance’s defensive reactions, wear down support for Ukraine among member states, and intensify pressure on Western nations.
This assessment by Kyiv followed an incident where NATO jets intercepted and neutralized Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace on September 9-10. Separately, air traffic in parts of Denmark was disrupted this week by unidentified drones, highlighting growing concerns over aerial security in the region.
The Ukrainian agency detailed its findings, stating that “Such hybrid operations likely aim to increase pressure on Ukraine’s Western partners, potentially leading to: Reduced support for Ukraine, especially military aid.”
In response, Russia has consistently denied any intention of targeting Polish territory with its drones, asserting that its operations were solely focused on neighboring Ukraine. Following the incident, a prominent U.S. figure suggested the drones might have inadvertently crossed the border.
Despite Ukraine’s sophisticated jamming and electronic warfare systems, which are typically employed to deflect incoming Russian drone and missile attacks, the Ukrainian spy agency explicitly dismissed the possibility that their systems were responsible for diverting these particular drones into Poland.
The agency provided further evidence, noting that “UAVs (drones) entered Poland not only from Ukraine but also from Belarus. Some UAVs penetrated up to 100 km (60 miles) into Polish territory, far beyond the range of Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.”
Furthermore, the significant number of drones involved—estimated at around 20—and the identification of models like the Gerbera decoy drone, led the Ukrainian analysis to conclude that Russia’s intent was not to strike targets within Poland but rather to create a strategic disruption.
A Broader Strategy of Aggression
These drone incidents occur amidst escalating tensions along NATO’s eastern borders with Russia. Beyond the Polish event, Estonia recently reported three Russian fighter jets violating its airspace, and Romania has nearly intercepted drones near its territory.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin had previously denounced any discussion of shooting down Russian military aircraft over Europe as reckless and aggressive, viewing such talk as a grave escalation of tensions close to Russia’s borders.
Regardless of these diplomatic statements, the Ukrainian agency maintains its stance, declaring that the incident in Poland “is part of Russia’s broader plan to expand aggression into countries bordering Ukraine.” They further stated, “It serves as a warning to NATO and a test of their response to attacks on member states. It is also intended to intimidate the Polish population.”
To underline the systematic nature of these incursions, Ukrainian intelligence highlighted that Moldova’s airspace has been violated by Russian drones 10 times this year alone. Additionally, 14 drones have crashed on Romanian soil since 2023, primarily during attacks on vital port infrastructure in Ukraine.
The agency concluded by emphasizing that “Violations of airspace in countries bordering Ukraine have become systematic during Russian combined air attacks on Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure.”