For almost two years, Arab states with complex relationships with Israel have navigated the Gaza conflict primarily as a political challenge, maintaining communication despite growing frustrations. However, a recent series of Israeli actions—including an attack on Hamas officials in Qatar and a ground invasion of Gaza City, both occurring within a week—has sparked intense alarm among these nations, prompting questions about their own national security.
The September 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar’s capital, drew widespread condemnation throughout the Middle East and beyond. Qatar, a crucial U.S. ally, has been instrumental in mediating efforts for a Gaza peace agreement.
According to H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East security expert from the Royal United Services Institute and the Center for American Progress, it would be unwise for countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey not to fear potential attacks on their own soil.
An image shows Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the emir of Qatar, displayed on a screen during an Arab-Islamic summit in Doha. This summit was held following an Israeli strike in the city on September 9. (Credit: Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters)
The strike in Qatar was swiftly followed by a ground invasion of Gaza City the previous week, displacing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who sought refuge in southern Gaza. Israel justified its actions in Qatar as part of a strategy to deny safe havens to Hamas, citing the militant group’s October 7, 2023, attack. The Gaza City offensive, Israel stated, aimed to dismantle Hamas in one of its remaining strongholds.
A photograph depicts displaced Palestinians in the al-Mawasi area of Gaza on a Sunday. (Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times)
These recent Israeli actions have drawn particularly strong condemnation from Egypt, the first Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Like Qatar, Egypt has also served as a mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks. The Doha attack has led analysts to question if Egypt, too, might be susceptible to Israeli strikes, and if any regional country remains truly safe. At a recent regional summit in Doha, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi controversially labeled Israel an “enemy,” a term not used by an Egyptian president since the peace process began in the late 1970s, as noted by Diaa Rashwan of Egypt’s state media. Rashwan emphasized this was a deliberate choice, stating, “Our national security is under threat, and only an enemy can threaten national security.” As Israeli forces advanced into Gaza City, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remained, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry issued a severe warning of “catastrophic dangers,” condemning the operation as “a new phase of chaos resulting from Israeli recklessness and excessive arrogance.” Egyptians, like many across the Arab world, are already outraged by the war’s devastating toll on Palestinians. With a shared border in the Sinai Peninsula, Egyptian officials are concerned that the conflict’s escalation, leaving Palestinians with nowhere to go, could force a mass exodus towards their border.
Egyptian officials have long harbored fears of such a mass displacement, in part to avoid accusations of complicity in displacing Palestinians. Equally pressing are domestic security concerns; a potential border crossing by Hamas militants amidst refugees could trigger an Israeli strike on Egyptian territory. While Egypt has already welcomed over 100,000 medical evacuees and other refugees from Gaza, its struggling economy makes the prospect of a larger influx daunting. Israeli media reports indicate that Israel has expressed concerns to Washington regarding an Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, though the Egyptian government has neither confirmed nor denied these reports, and independent verification was not possible. Yehia el-Kadwani, an Egyptian lawmaker on the defense and national security committee, indicated that such actions, if undertaken, would serve as a clear warning. He asserted that displacing Palestinians is “a red line,” and “Egypt will take a stance if this occurs.”
Neighboring Jordan, which also has a long-standing peace treaty with Israel, is observing these developments with apprehension. Its shared border with the Israeli-occupied West Bank, home to approximately three million Palestinians, heightens its vulnerability. As global recognition of a Palestinian state increases amid the Gaza conflict, Israel has intensified threats to annex significant portions of the West Bank. This has led to concerns in Jordan that Israel might attempt to push Palestinians across the border, according to Hellyer. Gulf nations are similarly reassessing their positions in response to the recent Israeli attacks. Historically, these nations viewed Iran as their primary regional adversary, often aligning with Israel against this common threat. In fact, in 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were among several Arab states to normalize relations with Israel.
However, Hellyer notes a swift shift in sentiment: “Now, they perceive Israel as a greater threat to both Gulf and broader regional security.”
A photograph shows a damaged building in Qatar following an Israeli attack on Hamas in the capital. (Credit: Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters)
Despite never establishing formal diplomatic relations, Qatar and Israel previously maintained cordial ties, even involving visits by Israeli officials during Gaza cease-fire talks. This relationship was completely fractured by the attack on Doha. In response, some Gulf nations are moving beyond mere condemnations. Saudi Arabia, for instance, recently announced a new “strategic defense pact” with nuclear-armed Pakistan, asserting that an attack on one would be considered an attack on both. Analysts suggest this agreement partly stems from growing frustration with the United States’ perceived inaction in protecting the Gulf region. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert at King’s College London, warned in a recent article that the entire region is now teetering on the brink of a widespread conflict, a scale not witnessed since the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948-1973.
For decades, the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries had largely confined the conflict to Israeli-Palestinian dynamics. However, Krieg argues that each new Israeli escalation dramatically increases the risk of drawing more Arab nations into a broader regional confrontation. He concludes that “Arab publics, already inflamed by Gaza, now see Israel as a concrete threat to Arabs collectively.” (Reporting contributed by Rania Khaled.)