French President Emmanuel Macron is set to formally recognize a Palestinian state during next week’s U.N. General Assembly. This move is part of a wider diplomatic effort he’s leading to revive a two-state solution with Israel, a goal that appears increasingly out of reach.
Developed alongside Saudi Arabia over the past six months, this comprehensive plan aims to provide a clear path for Gaza’s reconstruction and lasting peace once the war, now nearing its third year, concludes. So far, 142 nations have thrown their weight behind it.
Following President Macron’s July announcement of his intention to recognize Palestine, several other countries have signaled similar intentions. Canada and Britain are among these, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expected to make his own announcement soon.
Many more countries are anticipated to declare their recognition on Monday, during a special United Nations summit held just before the General Assembly’s official opening.
However, even those closest to President Macron admit a critical flaw: the plan lacks any indication of support from either Israel or the United States.
This absence of key players suggests that Macron’s initiative might, unfortunately, follow in the footsteps of over 75 years of unsuccessful diplomatic attempts since the U.N. first proposed a two-state solution in 1947.
Despite the challenges, Macron and his diplomatic team remain steadfast, believing this diplomatic push is vital, even if many view it as an idealistic, perhaps even futile, endeavor.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated bluntly, “The necessary conditions to even explore a two-state solution simply don’t exist right now.”
Miller, who previously advised U.S. Secretaries of State on Arab-Israeli negotiations, elaborated, “While I don’t oppose the core proposals from the Saudis and French, the plan feels completely disconnected from the prevailing circumstances.”
These harsh realities include an ongoing Israeli ground assault in central Gaza City, which has displaced hundreds of thousands, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent unequivocal declaration that “there will be no Palestinian state,” and strong opposition from the Trump administration, which has been quietly urging allies to reject the plan.
During a visit to Jerusalem this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the recognition of a Palestinian state as a mere symbolic gesture, arguing it would only “embolden Hamas.” He cautioned that such a move could trigger an an Israeli backlash, potentially referring to recent calls from right-wing Israeli ministers to annex the West Bank in retaliation.
Macron’s team, however, interprets this resistance as an indicator that both Israel and the United States are increasingly feeling the weight of international isolation.
Since the outset, President Macron has maintained that a firm political pledge to Palestinian statehood is the only way to achieve a two-state peace, convince Hamas to disarm, and ultimately bring stability to the region.
His commitment to recognizing a Palestinian state is closely linked to the 42-point “day after” plan, crafted with Saudi Arabia. This detailed roadmap outlines concrete, time-sensitive, and irreversible actions to achieve a two-state solution once a ceasefire is in place.
Dubbed the “New York Declaration,” this plan received approval from 142 countries at the United Nations General Assembly earlier this month.
Key practical elements of the plan include forming a “transitional administrative committee” to manage governance and establishing a U.N.-backed stabilization force to ensure security. French diplomats indicated that the specific troop contributions from various nations are still under discussion.
The declaration unequivocally condemns the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the forced displacement of Palestinians. It further demands the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas and insists that Hamas “must relinquish its control in Gaza and surrender its weapons.”
Considering that many Arab and Middle Eastern nations, including traditional allies of Hamas, endorsed the document, Macron’s team views this agreement as a significant breakthrough.
However, similar to Macron’s ‘coalition of the willing’ initiative for Ukraine, the Gaza peace plan’s success hinges on U.S. involvement, and crucially, the cooperation of a resistant Israeli government and Hamas, which has yet to agree to disarm.
Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that the plan was developed with the clear understanding that only the United States possesses the necessary leverage to halt the war, largely due to Israel’s reliance on American weaponry.
Ms. Momtaz, an expert in French foreign policy, explained that “France and Saudi Arabia are offering the most practical and constructive assistance possible to help President Trump deliver on his promise of peace and foster regional normalization.”
While acknowledging the plan’s realism as a strong point, she also identifies its “biggest weakness” as America’s unwillingness to fully engage.
According to Mr. Miller, the former peace negotiator, the French and Saudis appear to be “misinterpreting President Trump’s stance.”
He elaborated, “The crucial missing piece is Trump’s ability, determination, and willingness to confront Benjamin Netanyahu. Nothing I’ve observed in the last nine months suggests Trump is prepared to pressure Israel regarding Gaza and Hamas.”
For many decades, the United States has officially supported a two-state solution. However, consecutive American administrations have consistently held that Palestinian statehood should emerge from comprehensive peace negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, rather than through unilateral declarations or U.N. resolutions.
Last year, the U.S. vetoed a Palestinian request for full U.N. member state recognition in the Security Council. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, then the U.S. ambassador, justified this by stating that “Palestinians lack control over a substantial part of what is meant to be their state, as it is under the sway of a terrorist organization,” referring to Hamas.
The United Nations has consistently advocated for a Palestinian state, a concept that has been central to peace negotiations for decades. The 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization outlined a path toward Palestinian self-determination, but this vision was ultimately shattered by recurring violence and deep-seated mistrust.
In 2006, Hamas, an organization that rejects Israel’s right to exist, won Palestinian legislative elections and subsequently took control of Gaza. This set the stage for the tragic events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants launched attacks in Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages.
Since that time, Israel’s military campaign against Hamas has resulted in catastrophic destruction, widespread hunger, and an estimated 65,000 deaths in Gaza, figures reported by Gazan health officials who do not differentiate between civilian and combatant casualties.
Max Rodenbeck, Israel-Palestine project director for the International Crisis Group in London, highlighted that recognizing a Palestinian state before a peace agreement is reached is a reversal of the long-standing diplomatic approach.
He observed, “The core issue lies on the ground; the very territory envisioned for a Palestinian state is diminishing rapidly. Since October 7th, Israeli settlers have reportedly claimed new land in the West Bank equivalent to three times the size of Gaza.”
Already, over 140 countries globally have recognized a Palestinian state, with Spain, Ireland, and Norway making their declarations last year.
France’s unique position stems from its deep emotional and historical ties to Israel, coupled with its significant diplomatic standing. It boasts the largest Jewish and Muslim populations in Western Europe and holds the unique dual status of being both a nuclear power and a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council within the European Union.
Ms. Momtaz noted that France’s symbolic recognition of Palestine provided President Macron with valuable leverage to secure commitments from various Arab states.
These commitments included public statements from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who urged Hamas, his long-standing rival, to “relinquish its weapons,” release all hostages immediately, and withdraw from Gaza.
The Palestinian leader also pledged to conduct elections in 2026 and to undertake reforms within the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs sections of the West Bank.
Furthermore, he committed to removing hate speech and incitement from the Palestinian education curriculum, a crucial point of concern for many Israelis, as highlighted by Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and public opinion expert with extensive experience in Israeli peace campaigns.
Scheindlin described the plan as “valuable,” suggesting that some of its proposals could be advanced by individual nations, foster improved bilateral relations, and serve as a guide for future diplomatic efforts.
Following his Monday announcement, President Macron is slated to meet with U.N. partners to further the plan. His team harbors hope that collective pressure from Arab nations might compel the American president to engage more actively.
However, even supporters of the plan concede that such a scenario remains a long shot.
Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Israel, the United States, and the United Nations, characterized the effort as “a gesture of despair,” adding, “We are hurtling towards disaster, and we are attempting to halt it.”