President Emmanuel Macron of France is set to formally recognize a Palestinian state next week at the U.N. General Assembly. This move is part of a significant diplomatic effort he’s leading to revive a two-state solution with Israel, even though the path seems more remote than ever.
This plan, developed with Saudi Arabia over the past six months, aims to create a blueprint for rebuilding Gaza and establishing peace once the Gaza war concludes, now nearing its third year. Remarkably, 142 countries have already thrown their support behind it.
Since Macron’s announcement in July about recognizing Palestine, more than half a dozen nations have followed suit, including Canada and Britain, whose Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, is expected to make his own declaration this weekend.
The remaining countries are anticipated to announce their recognition on Monday during a United Nations summit, just before the General Assembly officially begins.
However, even Macron’s closest advisors admit that the plan lacks a crucial ingredient: any indication of support from Israel or the United States.
This absence suggests that Macron’s initiative might just be another chapter in over 75 years of failed diplomacy, dating back to the UN’s original call in 1947 for an Arab state alongside a Jewish one.
Despite this, Macron and his diplomatic team remain steadfast, believing the diplomatic effort is worthwhile, even if others consider it idealistic.
“The necessary components to genuinely explore a two-state solution are simply not in place,” noted Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Miller, a former advisor to U.S. secretaries of state on Arab-Israeli negotiations, added, “I have no qualms with the core ideas of what the Saudis and French are proposing. But it’s completely disconnected from the current realities on the ground.”
These harsh realities include a ground assault by Israeli forces on central Gaza City this week, which has already displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Further complicating matters is a recent statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who declared, “there will be no Palestinian state.” Adding to the opposition is a strong condemnation from the Trump administration, which has been quietly lobbying allies not to endorse the plan.
This week, during a visit to Jerusalem, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed any recognition of a Palestinian state as merely symbolic, arguing it would only embolden Hamas. He cautioned that a renewed push for Palestinian statehood could trigger an Israeli backlash, potentially referring to recent calls by right-wing Israeli ministers to annex the West Bank in response.
Macron and his team, however, view this resistance as a sign that both Israel and the United States are increasingly feeling internationally isolated.
From the outset, Macron has maintained that a firm political commitment to Palestinian statehood is the only way to pave the road to peace, convince Hamas to disarm, and ultimately bring stability to the region.
His decision to recognize a Palestinian state is closely linked to a 42-point “day after” plan, developed alongside the Saudis. This plan outlines “concrete, time-bound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution once a ceasefire is in effect.
Known as the “New York Declaration,” the plan received approval from 142 countries at the United Nations General Assembly earlier this month.
Its practical elements include forming a “transitional administrative committee” to manage governance and establishing a UN-backed stabilization force for security. French diplomats noted that discussions are still ongoing regarding which countries would contribute troops.
The declaration unequivocally condemns the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, as well as the forced displacement of Palestinians, and calls for the release of all remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Furthermore, it demands that Hamas “must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”
Given that numerous Arab and Middle Eastern countries, including traditional Hamas allies, signed the document, Macron’s team sees this agreement as a significant diplomatic breakthrough.
However, much like Macron’s initiative with a “coalition of the willing” to secure peace in Ukraine, the Gaza “day after” plan relies heavily on U.S. involvement. It also requires cooperation from a resistant Israeli government and from Hamas, which has consistently refused to disarm.
The plan was conceived with the understanding that only the United States holds sufficient leverage to halt the war, largely due to Israel’s reliance on American weaponry, explained Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“France and Saudi Arabia are offering the most constructive practical assistance they can to help President Trump achieve the peace he promised and to facilitate regional normalization,” Ms. Momtaz, an expert on French foreign policy, stated.
While she views the plan’s practicality as its strength, she also identifies it as its “greatest weakness, because America isn’t engaging.”
Miller, the former peace negotiator, believes the French and Saudis are “misinterpreting Trump.”
“The missing piece is Trump’s ability, willingness, and desire to confront Benjamin Netanyahu directly,” he said. “I’ve seen nothing in the past nine months to suggest that when it comes to Gaza and Hamas, Trump is prepared to pressure Israel.”
For decades, a two-state solution has been official U.S. policy. Yet, successive American administrations have also believed that Palestinian statehood should emerge from comprehensive peace negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, rather than through unilateral declarations or UN resolutions.
Last year, the United States prevented the U.N. Security Council from advancing a Palestinian bid for full member state recognition at the United Nations. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, then U.S. ambassador to the U.N., clarified that “Palestinians do not control a significant portion of what is meant to be their state. It is under the control of a terrorist organization,” referring to Hamas.
The United Nations has consistently supported the concept of a Palestinian state, a principle that has underpinned peace negotiations for decades. The Oslo Accords, signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1993, outlined a path to Palestinian self-determination, which was ultimately derailed by violence and distrust.
In 2006, Hamas, which disputes Israel’s right to exist, won the Palestinian legislative elections and subsequently took control of Gaza. Years later, on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas fighters launched an attack on Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages.
Since then, Israel’s military campaign against Hamas has resulted in widespread destruction, severe hunger, and the deaths of about 65,000 people in Gaza, according to Gazan health officials, who do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
Recognizing a Palestinian state before the conclusion of a peace process reverses the traditional approach, noted Max Rodenbeck, Israel-Palestine project director for the International Crisis Group in London.
“The problem is on the ground; the actual state people are discussing is shrinking rapidly,” he said. “Since October 7th, in the West Bank alone, the area newly occupied by Israeli settlers is roughly three times the size of Gaza.”
Globally, over 140 countries have already recognized a Palestinian state, including Spain, Ireland, and Norway, which did so last year.
France’s unique position stems from its deep emotional and historical ties to Israel, coupled with its significant diplomatic influence. France is home to the largest Jewish and Muslim communities in Western Europe and is the sole nuclear power and permanent U.N. Security Council member within the European Union.
The symbolic weight of France recognizing Palestine was vital to Arab states, providing Macron with leverage to secure their commitments, as Ms. Momtaz pointed out.
These commitments included public statements from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who urged Hamas, his bitter adversary, to “hand over its weapons,” immediately release all hostages, and withdraw from Gaza.
The Palestinian leader also pledged to conduct elections in 2026 and to reform the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the West Bank.
Furthermore, he committed to eliminating hate speech and incitement from the Palestinian education curriculum, addressing a major concern for many Israelis, according to Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and public opinion expert involved in Israeli peace campaigns for decades.
She described the plan as “valuable,” suggesting that certain aspects could be advanced by individual member states or might help alter bilateral relations, and indeed, “they can serve as a guide for future direction.”
Following his announcement on Monday, Mr. Macron has scheduled further meetings with partners at the United Nations to continue advancing the plan. His team harbors hope that pressure from Arab nations might ultimately compel the American president to take action.
However, even the plan’s supporters acknowledge that this remains a distant possibility.
“It’s a desperate act,” stated Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Israel, the United States, and the United Nations. “We are heading towards catastrophe; we are attempting to avert it.”