Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has significantly impacted Hamas, eliminating thousands of its fighters, depleting its weapon caches, and dismantling a substantial portion of its intricate underground tunnel networks. This relentless assault has reshaped Hamas’s military structure. What was once an organized army has now fragmented into smaller, agile groups of fighters. Their primary focus has shifted to entrenchment and survival, alongside executing calculated ambushes against Israeli forces.
Wesam Afifa, former executive director of Hamas’s Al Aqsa TV, noted that the concept of fixed Hamas strongholds in a conventional military sense no longer applies. Instead, the resistance is carried out by small, mobile cells employing guerrilla tactics.
However, Hamas continues to exert considerable influence as a Palestinian power in Gaza. This week, Israeli troops launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza City, an operation Israeli officials hope will lead to the complete eradication of the group. This offensive is fraught with peril, given that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians reside in the area, many unable or unwilling to evacuate to already overburdened regions with scarce resources.
On the battlefield, Hamas has abandoned direct confrontation in favor of hit-and-run tactics, a response to Israel’s overwhelming military superiority. The group has been strategically placing explosives beneath roads, within residential buildings, and on Israeli military vehicles, as reported by Israeli security officials. Recent videos released by Hamas’s military wing show fighters, often dressed in civilian attire, ambushing tanks, armored personnel carriers, and soldiers before swiftly retreating.
Since January, approximately 70 Israeli soldiers have reportedly died in combat in Gaza. William J. Burns, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, stated last week that Hamas no longer possesses the capability to launch another attack on the scale of October 7, 2023, which resulted in about 1,200 deaths and hundreds of abductions, igniting the current war. Israel’s subsequent military response has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians. Current and former Israeli security officials also confirm that Hamas lacks the ability to execute large-scale rocket barrages on Israel, a common occurrence in the early days of the conflict, or to effectively repel advancing Israeli ground forces.
The precise number of remaining militants in Gaza is uncertain. Shalom Ben Hanan, a former senior official in Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency who receives regular briefings on the conflict, estimates that approximately 15,000 militants remain in the territory.
Prior to the Gaza City invasion, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly claimed that defeating Hamas was imminent, a assertion he has made numerous times throughout the war. However, military analysts suggest it’s improbable that this new Israeli operation will deliver a decisive blow to the group.
Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times
“It’s simply naive to think Israel can swiftly end Hamas,” remarked Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer specializing in Palestinian affairs. “That’s not how these things work.” As Israel pushes deeper into Gaza City, it’s expected that most of Hamas’s remaining fighters will disperse into other areas of Gaza. According to a senior Middle Eastern intelligence official, who preferred anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information, Hamas forces are concentrated in Gaza City, Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, and Mawasi, a coastal region in the south.
While Israel could attempt to capture these areas as well, security officials warn that preventing Hamas from re-establishing itself would require years of sustained conflict.
Mr. Netanyahu has outlined his conditions for ending the war, including Hamas’s unconditional surrender, vowing to achieve these terms either through force or negotiation. Hamas, however, has rejected these demands, pledging to fight until its last bullet or secure a deal that ends the war on its own terms. Hamas has offered to release all Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of Palestinian prisoners.
On Thursday, amidst the Israeli advance into Gaza City, Hamas’s military wing issued a statement declaring its readiness with “an army of suicide fighters and thousands of ambushes.”
Yet, some Palestinian analysts propose that both Hamas and Israel may be exaggerating the group’s strength to serve their respective agendas. Mohammed al-Astal, an analyst based in southern Gaza, suggested that Hamas portrays itself as powerful to pressure Israel into accepting a ceasefire agreement. Conversely, he believes Israel frames Hamas as a significant adversary to justify devastating the enclave and displacing its inhabitants.
“What Israel is doing on the ground extends beyond merely eliminating Hamas,” he asserted. “There’s a widespread feeling among Palestinians that Israel intends to eliminate both Gaza and its people.”
The Israeli military maintains that Hamas militants and their weapon infrastructure are deeply embedded within civilian areas. When questioned about Hamas’s continued relevance, Mr. Ben Hanan, the former intelligence official, cited the group’s extortion of Gaza’s business community and ongoing recruitment efforts. “All these factors demonstrate that Hamas still holds power,” he concluded.
Furthermore, Hamas has continued to manage some civil institutions, oversee internal security forces, and distribute payments to government employees. Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian political analyst who spent years in Israeli prisons alongside senior Hamas leaders, summarized the situation: “When we speak of Hamas, we are really talking about the remnants of Hamas. But despite their weakening, they remain the only game in town.”