For a long time, Chinese authorities vehemently criticized U.S. calls for TikTok’s Chinese parent company to divest its American business, labeling it outright theft. Surprisingly, Chinese state media are now celebrating a potential agreement to do just that, calling it a ‘win-win’ situation. This Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump are anticipated to hold a phone conversation to endorse this new deal.
This unexpected shift from China seems designed to hand the American president a perceived victory on an issue he deeply cares about: the popular video app TikTok, which he credits with helping him connect with young voters and secure his re-election. In return, Beijing aims to create more space for negotiations on its top priorities, including trade tariffs, technological access, and the sensitive issue of Taiwan.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, commented, ‘There are much bigger issues at stake.’ She added that if China can leverage ‘these minor concessions, like TikTok, to foster a more positive environment and improve U.S.-China relations, they will certainly pursue it.’
This TikTok agreement and the planned phone call could set the stage for a summit next month, marking the first face-to-face encounter between the leaders in Mr. Trump’s second term. While Beijing prefers to host, an alternative venue could be a regional summit in South Korea.
It’s plausible that TikTok was always intended as a bargaining chip for China. The app’s future in the U.S., where it’s viewed as a national security risk, is a minor concern compared to Beijing’s larger challenges, such as U.S. export restrictions and tariffs that threaten to hinder China’s economic and technological progress.
Furthermore, TikTok’s core recommendation algorithm holds less strategic importance for Chinese leadership today than it did five years ago when the controversy surrounding the app first emerged, as its novelty has somewhat diminished.
Dimitar Gueorguiev, director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, described TikTok as an ‘expendable concession.’ He explained that ‘Chinese officials intentionally allowed the issue to linger for years, reserving it as a potential solution to alleviate pressure from Washington. A deal now presents a lower cost to Beijing than when negotiations began, yet still provides the greatest visual impression of a compromise.’
From Beijing’s perspective, this is the opportune moment to play the TikTok card. Given its substantial control over critical minerals – China processes almost 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals used in everything from cars to wind turbines and jets – it believes it holds significant leverage for any discussions with Mr. Trump.
Li Daokui, a distinguished economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, observed that ‘the Chinese approach is far more seasoned, tolerant, and tactical. They have a clear understanding of U.S. desires and are well-versed in Trump’s unique negotiating methods.’
To sweeten the deal for Mr. Trump, China might offer to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans, a move the president has openly expressed a desire for, or commit to acquiring more Boeing aircraft.
However, Beijing would need to act swiftly to fulfill such commitments. Bids for this year’s soybean crop are already past due, and Boeing’s production schedule is rapidly filling. China’s leaders also confront significant uncertainties when negotiating with an unpredictable figure like Mr. Trump.
Dr. Sun explained, ‘They recognize the necessity of a trade agreement to facilitate Trump’s visit to China, and they aim to ensure it’s irreversible—that they don’t expose their vulnerabilities only for the U.S. to betray their trust.’
She continued, ‘While they can’t foresee if such a situation will recur, they are certain that if it does, it would be a deeply humiliating experience for the Chinese leader.’
Despite these potential risks, Mr. Xi is expected to approach Friday’s call with considerable confidence. Rather than being isolated by U.S. pressure, he has demonstrated China’s extensive network of allies. Earlier this month, he hosted an impressive military parade in Beijing, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un by his side. Prior to that, he welcomed leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a security summit in Tianjin.
The perception of Mr. Trump joining a procession of world leaders visiting Beijing to honor China’s most influential leader in decades would significantly enhance Mr. Xi’s domestic credibility, especially as officials work to revitalize the economy. Such a visit would also project an image of the Chinese leader being actively sought out by the U.S. president.
Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, stated, ‘China will undoubtedly aim to demonstrate that the U.S. has a greater need for its cooperation.’
Crucially, a state visit offers Beijing the advantage of managing public perception and preventing the kind of public reprimand from Mr. Trump that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced at the White House in February.
Dr. Sun emphasized, ‘They are not prepared to risk their leader traveling to the U.S. only to face public criticism.’
There’s been increasing momentum towards such a meeting. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have recently engaged in discussions with their Chinese counterparts. For months, Mr. Trump has also expressed a keen interest in meeting the Chinese leader, whom he often refers to as a ‘good friend’ and openly admires.
The Trump administration has also made moves perceived as advantageous to China. This includes allowing Nvidia to export specific AI chips to China and, in June, advising Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te against a planned stopover in New York, a visit that Beijing would have strongly opposed.
Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that Chinese leaders ‘have observed Trump’s readiness to negotiate on subjects previously considered off-limits.’
Beijing is expected to press for tariff relief imposed by Mr. Trump, who attributes them to China’s alleged failure to curb the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals. Additionally, China seeks reduced U.S. export controls on advanced chips and a scaling back of American support for Taiwan, which Beijing considers its own territory.
The Friday call will serve as a crucial opportunity for both leaders to assess if further mutually beneficial agreements can be reached, thereby justifying a full-fledged summit.
Amanda Hsiao, China director for the Eurasia Group (an investment advisory firm), suggested that ‘This call will be pivotal in determining if both sides are prepared for deeper engagement, or if they will settle for a less significant interaction’ during the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.
According to Chinese officials, the preliminary agreement reached in Madrid earlier this week with U.S. counterparts extends beyond TikTok, encompassing reduced investment barriers and enhanced trade and economic cooperation – subjects likely to be discussed during the call.
Mr. Xi might also encourage Mr. Trump to carve his own diplomatic path, disregarding more aggressive voices within his administration that the Chinese leader views as attempting to restrict China. During their last phone call in June, Mr. Xi metaphorically described the U.S.-China relationship as a large ship guided by two strong helmsmen, cautioning Mr. Trump to ‘avoid various disruptions or even sabotage.’
Mr. Wyne from the International Crisis Group observed, ‘Significant differences exist between Trump and his advisors. China will probably try to explore and capitalize on these disparities.’
The mere fact that these two leaders are communicating suggests to some analysts a stabilization in their relationship. However, the true trajectory will become clear only after their anticipated in-person summit.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, commented, ‘Until that point, we cannot definitively state that this is a stable and predictable relationship. I believe we are heading in that direction, but the upcoming summit will be the ultimate benchmark.’