For a long time, Chinese officials vehemently opposed American demands for TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell its U.S. operations, calling it outright theft. Surprisingly, Chinese state media are now celebrating a potential agreement to do just that as a ‘win-win’ scenario. This shift is set to culminate in a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and former President Trump, where they are expected to endorse the deal.
This apparent change of heart from China isn’t just about TikTok. It seems to be a strategic concession designed to give the American president a perceived victory on an issue he deeply values: protecting the immensely popular video app he believes helped him resonate with younger voters and secure his re-election. In return, Beijing aims to gain crucial bargaining power on its own top priorities: trade tariffs, technological advancements, and the delicate issue of Taiwan.
As Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, wisely observes, ‘There’s much bigger fish to fry.’ She explains that if China can leverage minor concessions, like the TikTok deal, to foster a more positive atmosphere and improve U.S.-China relations, they will readily do so.
The TikTok agreement, along with the impending phone call, could set the stage for a significant summit next month – marking their first face-to-face meeting since Mr. Trump began his second term. While Beijing would ideally host the event, both leaders might also convene during an upcoming regional summit in South Korea.
It’s plausible that TikTok was always viewed by China as a negotiable asset. The app’s future in the United States, despite being labeled a national security risk, is far less critical to Beijing than other pressing concerns, such as U.S. export controls and tariffs that threaten to hinder China’s economic and technological growth.
Furthermore, TikTok’s core recommendation algorithm, once a unique asset, holds less strategic importance for Chinese leadership now compared to five years ago, when the debate surrounding the app first ignited.
Dimitar Gueorguiev, director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, views TikTok as an ‘expendable concession.’ He explains that Chinese officials strategically allowed the issue to linger for years, reserving it as a potential solution to ease pressure from Washington. Now, a deal offers Beijing a higher perceived value of compromise at a lower cost than if negotiations had concluded earlier.
From Beijing’s perspective, this is the opportune moment to play the TikTok card. With China’s dominant control over critical minerals—processing almost 90% of the world’s rare earth metals essential for manufacturing everything from cars to wind turbines and jets—it believes it wields significant leverage in any discussion with Mr. Trump.
According to Li Daokui, a renowned economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, ‘The Chinese side is much more experienced and has much more tolerance and is much more tactical.’ He suggests they possess a deep understanding of U.S. objectives and are adept at navigating Trump’s unique negotiating approach.
To sweeten the deal for Mr. Trump, China might offer to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans—a move the president has publicly expressed a desire for—or perhaps commit to buying more Boeing aircraft.
However, Beijing would need to act swiftly to fulfill such promises. They are behind schedule for this year’s soybean crop bids, and Boeing’s production slots are rapidly being booked. China’s leaders also confront inherent risks when negotiating with an unpredictable figure like Mr. Trump.
Dr. Sun emphasized, ‘They understand that there needs to be a trade deal to pave the ground for Trump to come to China, and they want to make sure this is not retractable — that they don’t put their hearts on the table and the U.S. just stabs it with a knife.’ This highlights China’s desire for a secure, irreversible agreement.
She added that while they can’t predict if a past scenario of abrupt policy changes will repeat, they know a similar outcome would be deeply humiliating for the Chinese leader.
Despite U.S. pressure, Mr. Xi is expected to approach Friday’s call with a sense of confidence. Beijing has actively cultivated numerous international alliances; just this month, Xi hosted an elaborate military parade in Beijing, accompanied by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Prior to that, he welcomed leaders like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a security summit in Tianjin.
For Xi, projecting an image of Trump, as the latest in a series of world leaders, visiting Beijing to pay respects to China’s most powerful figure in decades would significantly boost his credibility domestically. This is especially crucial as officials grapple with efforts to revitalize the economy. Such a visit would powerfully convey the notion that the U.S. president is actively seeking China’s favor.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, succinctly states, ‘China will want to demonstrate that the U.S. needs it more.’
Crucially, a state visit would grant Beijing control over the narrative and presentation, allowing them to circumvent any public reprimand similar to what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced at the White House in February at the hands of Mr. Trump.
Dr. Sun reiterated, emphasizing their caution, that Chinese leaders ‘are unwilling to take the risk that their leader goes to the U.S. and gets yelled at.’
The groundwork for a potential meeting has been laid over recent months. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have held discussions with their Chinese counterparts. Simultaneously, Mr. Trump has consistently expressed his desire to meet with the Chinese leader, frequently referring to him as a ‘good friend’ and openly voicing his admiration.
The Trump administration has also implemented measures seemingly favorable to China. This includes Mr. Trump’s decision to permit the export of specific AI chips manufactured by Nvidia to China. Additionally, in June, the White House advised Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te against a planned stopover in New York, a visit that would undoubtedly have drawn strong protests from Beijing.
Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, points out that Chinese leaders ‘have seen Trump be willing to negotiate on issues that were previously nonnegotiable.’
Beijing is expected to advocate for the removal of tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump, who cites China’s alleged failure to curb the flow of fentanyl-precursor chemicals. Additionally, China aims for Washington to ease export controls on advanced semiconductors and reduce its backing for Taiwan, which Beijing considers its sovereign territory.
The upcoming Friday call presents an opportunity for both leaders to explore further agreements where each can claim victory, thereby justifying a full summit.
Amanda Hsiao, China director for the Eurasia Group (an investment advisory firm), states that ‘This call will help determine whether the two sides are there, or whether they opt for a less consequential engagement’ such as a meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.
Chinese officials have indicated that a preliminary agreement reached in Madrid this week with U.S. counterparts extends beyond just TikTok. It reportedly covers reducing investment barriers and fostering enhanced trade and economic cooperation—all topics likely to be discussed during the phone call.
President Xi may also try to persuade Mr. Trump to forge an independent path, urging him to disregard more hardline voices within his administration whom the Chinese leader perceives as aiming to contain China. During their last phone conversation in June, Xi likened the U.S.-China relationship to a vast ship navigated by two strong helmsmen, cautioning Trump to ‘steer clear of various disturbances or even sabotage.’
Mr. Wyne from the International Crisis Group suggests that ‘There are important differences of opinion between Trump and his advisers. China will likely seek to probe and exploit those differences’ to its advantage.
The mere fact that these two leaders are communicating indicates to some a stabilization in the relationship. However, the long-term trajectory will largely hinge on the outcome of their forthcoming in-person meeting.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, notes, ‘Until then we cannot say for sure, OK, this is a relatively stable and predictable relationship. I can tell we are moving in that direction but the major indicator will be the forthcoming summit.’
Pei-Lin Wu contributed to this report.