As January began, Iran found itself navigating a dual crisis: widespread domestic protests coupled with the looming threat of U.S. military strikes. In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei placed his unwavering trust in Ali Larijani, a seasoned national security official, tasking him with guiding the nation through these turbulent times.
At 67, Mr. Larijani, a veteran politician, former Revolutionary Guards Corps commander, and current head of the Supreme National Security Council, has since assumed de facto leadership of Iran. His ascendancy has overshadowed President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon-turned-politician, who openly admits he’s ‘a doctor, not a politician,’ tempering expectations for his ability to resolve Iran’s numerous challenges.
This report details Mr. Larijani’s rise and the critical decisions being made by Iran’s leadership amidst escalating war threats from the Trump administration. Our insights come from candid interviews with six senior Iranian officials (one close to Mr. Khamenei’s office), three Revolutionary Guards members, two former Iranian diplomats, and extensive Iranian media analysis. All sources requested anonymity to speak freely on sensitive internal government affairs.
Over recent months, Mr. Larijani’s influence and responsibilities have expanded significantly. He spearheaded the violent suppression of recent protests advocating for an end to Islamic rule. Today, he is tasked with managing internal dissent, coordinating with key international partners such as Russia, Qatar, and Oman, and supervising ongoing nuclear talks with the United States. Furthermore, he is meticulously crafting strategies to govern Iran should a conflict with the U.S. erupt, as American forces continue to gather in the region.
During a recent visit to Doha, Qatar, Mr. Larijani declared in an Al Jazeera interview, ‘Our nation is prepared. We are undeniably stronger than before, having spent the last seven to eight months identifying and rectifying our vulnerabilities. While we do not seek war and will not initiate it, we will respond decisively if forced into conflict.’
Images from Tehran in February show a march commemorating the 47th anniversary of the Islamic revolution, with a woman prominently holding two Iranian flags as people in black follow.
According to the same senior officials and Revolutionary Guards members, Ayatollah Khamenei has issued strict instructions to Mr. Larijani and his inner circle of political and military confidantes. Their mandate is to guarantee the Islamic Republic’s survival not only from potential American and Israeli bombardments but also from any attempts to assassinate its supreme leadership, including Khamenei himself.
Nasser Imani, a conservative analyst with strong government ties, confirmed in a Tehran interview that Khamenei’s decision to lean on Larijani stems from their long-standing, close relationship. The Supreme Leader sees Larijani as the indispensable figure to navigate the current, severe military and security challenges.
Imani elaborated: ‘The Supreme Leader places complete faith in Larijani, believing him to be the ideal leader for this critical moment due to his extensive political experience, keen intellect, and deep understanding. Khamenei depends on Larijani for situation reports and practical counsel, and his influence will be particularly significant during any wartime scenario.’
Hailing from an influential political and religious lineage, Mr. Larijani served as Parliament speaker for 12 years. In 2021, he was tasked with orchestrating a multi-billion dollar, 25-year comprehensive strategic agreement with China.
Multiple senior officials and Revolutionary Guards members confirm that Khamenei has rolled out a series of directives to ensure continuity. This includes establishing four tiers of succession for all military command and government positions he personally appoints. Additionally, all leaders have been instructed to designate up to four replacements, and a select group of trusted confidantes has been empowered to make critical decisions should communications with Khamenei be severed or if he is incapacitated.
During a 12-day conflict with Israel, Khamenei reportedly identified three potential successors, whose identities remain undisclosed. However, Mr. Larijani is likely not among them, as he lacks the fundamental qualification of being a senior Shiite cleric required for the role.
Nonetheless, Larijani remains a key figure within Khamenei’s most trusted advisors. This inner circle also comprises Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, Khamenei’s chief military advisor and former Guards commander; Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards commander and current Parliament speaker, designated by Khamenei as the de facto deputy commander of the armed forces in wartime; and Ali Asghar Hejazi, his chief of staff and a prominent cleric.
A notable image from June 2024 shows Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker, at the center of a bustling campaign event in Tehran. He has been designated to lead Iran’s armed forces in the event of a war with the United States.
These strategic blueprints are partly informed by the lessons of Israel’s surprise attack in June, which severely disrupted Iran’s senior military command in the initial hours of that conflict. Following the ceasefire, Mr. Khamenei elevated Mr. Larijani to secretary of the National Security Council and established a new National Defense Council, led by Adm. Ali Shamkhani, specifically to manage military operations during wartime.
Vali Nasr, a leading expert on Iran and Shiite theocracy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, observed, ‘Khamenei is confronting the stark reality before him.’
Nasr elaborated: ‘He anticipates becoming a martyr, believing ‘this is my system and legacy, and I will endure until the end.’ Consequently, he is decentralizing power and readying the state for major future events, encompassing both succession and war, with a clear understanding that one may directly lead to the other.’
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and nuclear negotiations, Iran’s leadership is operating under the conviction that U.S. military strikes are both inevitable and imminent. The six officials and three Guards members confirmed that Iran’s armed forces have been placed on the highest state of alert, poised for fierce resistance.
To bolster its defense, Iran is strategically deploying ballistic missile launchers. These are positioned along its western frontier with Iraq, placing Israel within striking distance, and along its southern Persian Gulf coast, capable of targeting American military bases and other regional assets, as reported by three Guards members and four senior officials.
Recent weeks have seen Iran periodically close its airspace for missile testing. A military exercise in the Persian Gulf also led to a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage for global oil and trade.
Throughout these preparations, Mr. Khamenei has projected an unyielding stance. In a recent speech, he warned that ‘the most powerful military in the world might receive such a slap that it won’t be able to get on its feet,’ and explicitly threatened to sink U.S. warships amassed in the vicinity.
Further highlighting its readiness, Iran has been observed moving missile launchers into strategic positions, capable of reaching both Israel and American military installations across the wider region, in anticipation of a potential conflict with the United States.
Should war break out, specialized police units, intelligence operatives, and Basij militia battalions — a paramilitary force under the Guards — are slated for deployment across major cities. Their mission, according to three Guards members and two senior officials, is to establish checkpoints, suppress internal unrest, and hunt for foreign intelligence agents.
Beyond military and security readiness, Iran’s leadership is also meticulously planning for its political survival. Six officials privy to these discussions reveal deliberations on a wide array of scenarios, including who would govern if Supreme Leader Khamenei and other top figures were incapacitated. There’s even talk of identifying an ‘Iranian Delcy,’ a nod to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who reportedly brokered a deal with the Trump administration to lead her country after President Nicolás Maduro’s capture.
Three officials confirmed that Mr. Larijani heads this critical succession list, with General Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker, following closely. Intriguingly, former President Hassan Rouhani, despite being largely estranged from Khamenei’s inner circle, also appears on this roster.
However, each of these potential successors carries a contentious public record that could hinder their acceptance by an enraged populace. Their histories include accusations of financial corruption and complicity in severe human rights abuses, notably the recent killing of at least 7,000 unarmed protesters over three days—a number human rights groups predict could climb significantly.
Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, acknowledged the leadership’s contingency planning but stressed the unpredictable fallout of a war with the United States. He noted that the Supreme Leader, ‘though less visible and more vulnerable, remains the vital adhesive holding the system together. Without him, maintaining its cohesion would be profoundly difficult.’
Over the last month, Mr. Larijani’s public profile has surged dramatically, contrasting sharply with President Pezeshkian’s fading presence. Larijani has traveled to Moscow for consultations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, engaged with various Middle Eastern leaders, and actively participated in nuclear negotiations between American and Iranian representatives. He has frequently appeared in lengthy television interviews with both domestic and international media—surpassing the President’s media engagements—and maintains an active social media presence, sharing photos of himself with Iranians, visiting religious sites, and waving from aircraft.
President Pezeshkian, for his part, seems to have accepted his diminished role, conceding authority to Mr. Larijani. Iranian media reported that during a cabinet meeting, Pezeshkian admitted to suggesting to Larijani that internet restrictions be eased due to their detrimental impact on e-commerce. This revelation underscored the remarkable reality that even the President must seek Larijani’s approval to enact policy changes.
In January, while protests were being violently suppressed, U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff attempted to reach Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi. Two senior Iranian officials and a former diplomat revealed that Witkoff, acting on President Trump’s warning of strikes if protesters were executed, sought to confirm whether any executions were underway or had been halted.
To prevent any misinterpretations, the two senior officials recounted that Mr. Araghchi contacted the Iranian President, inquiring if he could establish a dialogue with Mr. Witkoff. President Pezeshkian, however, deferred, stating he was unaware and advised Araghchi to seek authorization directly from Mr. Larijani.
Demonstrating his increased public engagement, Mr. Larijani has been featured in extensive televised interviews and actively shares social media content, often depicting him interacting with citizens throughout Tehran.