This week, a South Korean court handed down a life imprisonment sentence to a former president, convicting him of orchestrating an insurrection. This significant ruling immediately lifted a major political burden from the shoulders of the country’s current leader, Lee Jae Myung.
A different outcome – anything short of a conviction – would have spelled political catastrophe for Mr. Lee. As a key political rival to the now-convicted former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, an acquittal would have empowered Yoon and his hardline conservative base to dispute the very legitimacy of the impeachment process that led to Lee’s election.
The court’s decision, delivered on Thursday, significantly eases the political pressure on President Lee. It effectively validates the impeachment proceedings spearheaded by his party, bringing a sense of resolution to the recent political upheaval and helping to restore public confidence in the nation’s legal and governmental frameworks.
With this legal hurdle cleared, President Lee is poised to operate with greater freedom, shifting focus from past political dramas to pressing national priorities. His party already commands a majority in the National Assembly, and public approval ratings hover around 60 percent. Should his party achieve the landslide victory anticipated by many analysts in the upcoming June elections for local leadership, Lee will likely feel even more emboldened to advance his domestic policies, such as tackling housing affordability.
Despite this newfound leverage, Lee’s most formidable task remains unifying a deeply fractured society. The nation’s divisions, exacerbated by intense political tribalism and conflicting views on relations with North Korea and China, were starkly laid bare by Mr. Yoon’s unexpected martial law declaration in December 2024.
Professor Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University commented, ‘With the legal verdict now clarifying right from wrong regarding Yoon’s martial law, it’s an opportune moment for Lee to put political disputes aside and confidently champion national unity.’
Regardless of President Lee’s initiatives, political polarization in South Korea remains alarmingly high, fueled by extreme partisanship, a deluge of online disinformation, and the growing influence of a far-right movement. The scene outside the courthouse on Thursday underscored this tension, with opposing factions clashing and shouting slogans like ‘death for Yoon’ and ‘prison for Lee.’
President Lee has publicly pledged to unite the fragmented nation and avoid political retaliation. However, he has also committed to ‘eliminating the insurrection forces’ – a term his supporters use to describe those they view as threats to democracy.
Some analysts believe that Yoon’s guilty verdict might temper the hopes of a dedicated, albeit smaller, group of his supporters who have consistently rallied in downtown Seoul, advocating for his improbable reinstatement.
Conversely, other observers caution that the verdict could intensify political polarization. On Friday, Yoon communicated a defiant message to his supporters via his lawyers, portraying himself as a victim of ‘political revenge’ and declaring, ‘Our fight is not over.’
Jang Dong-hyeok, who leads the People Power Party – Mr. Yoon’s former political faction – conveyed ‘sadness’ regarding Yoon’s conviction on Friday. He affirmed his refusal to disassociate from Yoon or his loyalists, leaving the party’s future strategy concerning Yoon’s incensed supporters uncertain.
Choi Jin, director of the Institute for Presidential Leadership in Seoul, predicted, ‘Yoon’s far-right followers will only grow angrier and more determined for retribution.’ He added, ‘To counteract its diminished influence, the People Power Party will probably intensify its relentless political attacks against President Lee.’
President Lee also faces the challenge of managing hardliners within his own party, who were frustrated that Yoon evaded the death penalty they had sought. These factions have pledged to introduce new legislation to limit the president’s power to pardon individuals convicted of treason or insurrection – a significant political prerogative that Lee now holds.
Apart from a Friday directive to the military to ‘eliminate the remnants of the illegal martial law’ – implicitly targeting officers suspected of supporting Mr. Yoon – President Lee has remained silent on his predecessor’s conviction.
Looking forward, President Lee is expected to vigorously pursue his domestic agenda. This includes proposing punitive measures against media outlets accused of disseminating what he terms ‘malicious falsehoods.’ He also aims to rebalance national wealth, encouraging less investment in real estate and more in the stock market, alongside reforming property taxes to improve housing affordability, particularly for young couples.
Furthermore, Lee’s administration has initiated inquiries into Protestant churches, which have historically wielded considerable influence in Korean politics and were a significant source of backing for the former president. These investigations seek to sever what Lee has denounced as corrupt connections between religious institutions and political figures.
On the international front, Lee has demonstrated pragmatism, notably in negotiating a trade agreement with the Trump administration and skillfully managing relationships with neighboring China and Japan. Despite consistent rebuffs from North Korea, he continues efforts to re-establish trust, implementing unilateral measures to de-escalate border tensions.
However, the ultimate success of his ambitious policy initiatives hinges on his ability to learn from Mr. Yoon’s political demise and to present himself convincingly as a unifying national figure.
As Mr. Choi emphasized, ‘The president himself holds the crucial key to fostering a cooperative relationship with the opposition parties.’