As President Trump gears up for the inaugural meeting of his “Board of Peace” in Washington, there are grand proposals envisioning a shining, reconstructed Gaza. These plans paint a picture of hope and a futuristic seaside metropolis.
However, the stark reality on the ground tells a very different story.
“Trump aims to portray an optimistic outlook, but the truth is that the situation remains catastrophic,” notes Professor Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political analyst originally from Gaza City, now living in Cairo after being displaced during the Israel-Hamas war.
A delicate ceasefire was implemented in October, two years following the devastating Hamas-led assault on Israel that sparked the conflict. Yet, the path toward resolution is uncertain, complex, and riddled with immense challenges.
Professor Abusada believes that the Trump administration’s ceasefire plan is struggling, pointing fingers at both Hamas and Israel for its faltering success.
According to Mr. Trump, the international body formed to reconstruct Gaza has secured over $5 billion in pledges for humanitarian and rebuilding initiatives. However, this sum is a mere fraction of the estimated $50 billion the United Nations believes is required to fully rebuild the territory.
Nations have also pledged thousands of troops and personnel, establishing the framework for an International Stabilization Force intended to “maintain Security,” as stated by Mr. Trump.
Unnamed Western diplomats reveal that American officials are considering plans for a military base for peacekeepers in an Israeli-controlled region of southern Gaza.
While captivating presentations envision a futuristic coastal city, the present reality involves Israeli military and private contractors painstakingly clearing unexploded ordnance and an estimated 60 million tons of war debris from Israeli-controlled sections of Gaza.
Basic necessities are severely lacking in Gaza. Internal planning documents obtained by The New York Times indicate that experts have drafted a comprehensive report on waste management.
Despite the cessation of active warfare, Gaza remains far from safe. Local health officials report approximately 600 Palestinian deaths due to Israeli strikes since the ceasefire began, with no distinction made between combatants and civilians in their data.
Israel asserts that its almost daily strikes are responses to truce violations by militants or efforts to neutralize immediate threats. Tragically, these operations have resulted in the deaths of children.
Gaza’s health ministry reports a total of 72,000 fatalities since the war’s commencement, though Israel states that thousands of these were militants.
Currently, Israeli forces maintain control over roughly half of the coastal strip. Here, anti-Hamas militias have emerged, engaging in both armed activities and looting humanitarian aid. In the remaining half, a diminished yet persistent Hamas still holds sway, where the majority of Gaza’s two million residents reside, many still living in displacement camps and tents.
Although Hamas has committed to relinquishing administrative control of Gaza, its armed members continue to operate checkpoints, detain and interrogate individuals, and levy fees.
Genuine advancement in Gaza relies on addressing the most contentious aspects of Mr. Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which received UN Security Council backing. Key among these are the disarmament of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the guaranteed withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Hamas is unwilling to surrender its weaponry, which it views as essential for maintaining control over the populace and central to its identity as a resistance force against Israel.
Following the surprise Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which Israeli officials state resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, Israel remains profoundly distrustful of Hamas’s true intentions.
Consequently, Israel continues to block numerous “dual-use” items from entering Gaza, citing concerns that Hamas could repurpose them for military use. This evolving list currently includes items like wide-diameter steel tent poles, as disclosed by anonymous officials.
While severe wartime food shortages have somewhat alleviated, Western officials and aid organizations accuse Israel, which rigorously controls all goods entering Gaza, of deliberately delaying other forms of crucial assistance.
The United Nations reports that roughly 80 percent of Gaza’s buildings were either damaged or destroyed. However, according to the Shelter Cluster (a collaboration of UN and humanitarian groups focused on housing), Israel has significantly restricted or postponed the entry of caravans and temporary housing, even amidst harsh winter conditions.
The UN indicates that approximately 4,000 emergency temporary housing units are either ready or in progress. Yet, Alexander De Croo, a UN development official who recently visited Gaza, highlights the critical need for around 200,000 prefabricated relief housing units to accommodate displaced families.
COGAT, the Israeli military unit responsible for overseeing aid entry into Gaza, has refuted allegations of preventing or delaying assistance.
In a statement, COGAT asserted, “The reality is completely opposite,” claiming Israel is upholding its commitments under the ceasefire agreement.
The only border crossing between Gaza and Egypt recently resumed foot traffic after being closed for nearly two years. However, only a small number of Gazans—primarily those seeking medical care abroad, their caregivers, or residents returning from overseas—have managed to cross.
Progress is hampered by the reluctance of key parties to take risks or make concessions without the other side moving first.
Shira Efron, chair of Israel policy at the U.S.-based RAND Corporation, explains the stagnation: “All the structures are ready, but on the ground nothing has changed because one thing is dependent on another.”
She further elaborated that “reconstruction and Israeli military withdrawal are contingent on disarmament and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force.”
Ms. Efron observed that after almost two decades of controlling Gaza, Hamas appears determined to strengthen its grip rather than cede authority. “They are the ones enforcing law and order,” she stated.
She predicts that even the seemingly straightforward task of Hamas transferring civilian rule, which they had agreed to, will be exceptionally complex.
Hamas is unlikely to willingly relinquish its tax revenues, making an orderly transition improbable, especially given the group’s “poor and partial at best” governance of Gaza, she added.
A committee of Palestinian technocrats has been designated by the Board of Peace to serve as a transitional government, replacing Hamas. However, these officials currently remain in Cairo.
Members of the committee are awaiting improved security conditions and a relaxation of Israeli import restrictions, hoping these changes will enhance daily life for Gaza residents and lend legitimacy to their efforts once they begin operating in the region.
Professor Abusada emphasized, “They need to return with tangible results to earn the trust and support of the people in Gaza.”
Currently, the committee members are participating in governance training workshops organized by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
The ever-present specter of renewed conflict hangs over all these efforts.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing an election this year, has stated he will give the ceasefire plan an opportunity. However, he warns that if Hamas refuses disarmament, it will be achieved “the hard way,” through a fresh Israeli military offensive.
The Trump administration and mediators have been working on a phased disarmament agreement. This proposal would require Hamas to relinquish all weapons capable of hitting Israel, while initially allowing them to retain some small arms, according to informed officials.
Mr. Netanyahu, however, seemingly rejected this phased disarmament strategy, which focuses on heavy weaponry like rockets. He emphasized that the October 2023 attack primarily involved Kalashnikov assault rifles, and demanded Hamas surrender 60,000 of these.
Regardless, Hamas’s willingness to agree to such terms remains uncertain. Nickolay Mladenov, a former UN official now acting as the Board of Peace’s “high representative” for Gaza, recently met with Hamas’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, in Cairo to advocate for disarmament. However, Mr. al-Hayya reportedly declined to discuss the matter, as per anonymous officials.