Ukrainian and Russian representatives concluded another round of U.S.-brokered peace talks on Wednesday. Lasting only two hours, the brief session in Geneva hinted at scant progress, emphasizing how distant a resolution remains while intense fighting continues on the ground.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, though not attending in person, commented to reporters via social media that the “negotiations were not easy.” He observed that while technical points, like ceasefire monitoring, saw some consensus, significant disagreements persisted on political matters. Chief among these was the future of eastern Ukrainian territories currently under Kyiv’s control, which Russia demands as a condition for peace.
Vladimir Medinsky, the lead Russian negotiator and a Kremlin aide, also recognized the difficulties, describing the discussions to Russian media as “tough but businesslike.”
These latest statements sharply contrast with previous trilateral discussions between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi, which participants had previously praised as constructive and fruitful.
Earlier discussions largely concentrated on technical aspects, such as ceasefire monitoring protocols and prisoner swaps, which experts suggest are simpler to resolve. In stark contrast, this week’s agenda was dominated by territorial disputes—a persistent and major hurdle to achieving any peace agreement.
Ukrainian officials had previously expressed apprehension about the re-appointment of Mr. Medinsky, known for his firm negotiating style, to head the Russian delegation in Geneva, especially after his absence in Abu Dhabi. Kyiv viewed this as an indication that Moscow was unwilling to make concessions. President Zelensky stated on Monday, following the initial day of talks, “We can state that Russia is trying to drag out negotiations that could already have reached the final stage.”
President Zelensky has shown some willingness to consider territorial compromises, proposing a demilitarized zone in the eastern Donetsk region — an area Russia seeks. This plan would involve both Ukrainian and Russian forces withdrawing from equal sections of land. However, he emphasized that any such concession would be contingent upon Ukraine receiving robust security assurances from its Western partners, particularly the United States.
Analysts highlight that the issues of territorial adjustments and security guarantees are deeply intertwined. The order in which these matters are resolved could significantly influence which warring party gains a strategic advantage in the ongoing negotiations.
“The order of events is crucial,” noted Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at the research organization Rasmussen Global.
Mr. Nedelcu explained, “The U.S. seems to want Ukraine to concede territory first, with security guarantees from Washington only following that. This approach could dangerously trap Kyiv, as Russia might exploit any pause in fighting to initiate another offensive.”
This concern is especially pressing regarding the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk. The region is heavily fortified, and any surrender or withdrawal from it, even as part of a demilitarized zone, could provide Russia with a critical strategic advantage for future assaults.
“However, if security guarantees are established first,” Mr. Nedelcu continued, “it would empower Ukrainians at the negotiation table and ensure Kyiv has international protection to prevent another invasion.”
With such assurances, Kyiv could approach negotiations with greater confidence, secure in the knowledge of its post-war safety. Robust guarantees might even sway the Ukrainian public towards accepting territorial adjustments, a concept that is gradually gaining acceptance domestically.
President Zelensky previously indicated that the United States and Ukraine had reached an agreement on post-war security guarantees, though specifics remain undisclosed. Nevertheless, European diplomats in Kyiv express skepticism that these guarantees are definitively finalized. This situation has led to worries that the Switzerland talks, by prioritizing territorial discussions before concrete security commitments are firm, might be happening too soon.
This week, President Zelensky subtly alluded to this apprehension in a social media post.
He wrote: “Our American friends are preparing security guarantees. But they suggested—first a territorial exchange, or something similar, followed by security guarantees. My view is—first, security guarantees. Second, we will not surrender our territories because we are open to compromise. But what kind of compromise? Not one that allows Russia to rapidly regroup, return, and re-occupy us.”
Nataliya Vasilyeva contributed reporting.