Officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States gathered on Wednesday for the second day of high-stakes trilateral discussions. These ongoing negotiations aim to forge a lasting peace deal, a goal that has remained frustratingly out of reach so far.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s chief negotiator and secretary of its National Security Council, announced on social media that the latest round of talks in Geneva, Switzerland, kicked off just after 9:30 a.m. local time. Following the initial day of discussions on Tuesday, both Ukrainian and Russian representatives gave no public indication of any breakthroughs.
On Wednesday, Mr. Umerov revealed that the conversations would be split into distinct political and military discussion tracks. While he didn’t detail the full agenda, a central focus of these talks is anticipated to be the future of Ukrainian territories in the east. Russia insists on controlling these areas as a condition for peace, a demand Ukraine has consistently declared unacceptable.
This territorial dispute stands as a significant hurdle to any peace agreement, alongside another critical issue: the demand for robust postwar security guarantees from Western nations to protect Ukraine from potential future Russian aggression.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously indicated a willingness to discuss territorial compromises, proposing a demilitarized zone in Donetsk where both Ukrainian and Russian forces would withdraw from agreed-upon areas. However, he has firmly stated that such concessions would only be considered after Ukraine receives solid security assurances from its Western partners, particularly the United States.
Experts note that the issues of territory and security guarantees are deeply intertwined. The order in which these matters are resolved could significantly influence which side holds the advantage during the negotiations.
“The sequencing matters a lot,” explained Harry Nedelcu, a senior director at the research organization Rasmussen Global.
Mr. Nedelcu elaborated, “The U.S. seems to favor Ukraine making territorial concessions first, with security guarantees from Washington following afterward. This approach, however, risks trapping Kyiv, as Russia could exploit any pause to re-arm and launch fresh offensives.”
This worry is especially pronounced for the parts of Donetsk still held by Ukraine. The region is heavily fortified, meaning that ceding control or even withdrawing to establish a demilitarized zone could inadvertently provide Russia with a strategic advantage to reignite hostilities.
“Conversely, if security guarantees are established first,” Mr. Nedelcu continued, “it empowers Ukraine at the negotiating table and ensures Kyiv has international protection to prevent any future invasions.”
Operating from a position of strength and assured postwar security, Kyiv would be better equipped to negotiate. Robust security commitments could even sway the Ukrainian public towards accepting certain territorial concessions, an idea that is gradually gaining support.
While President Zelensky has stated that the U.S. and Ukraine have reached an agreement on postwar security guarantees, the specifics remain undisclosed. European diplomats in Kyiv express skepticism that these assurances are finalized, raising concerns that the Geneva talks might be premature, given their focus on territory without concrete security commitments.
This week, Mr. Zelensky subtly voiced these concerns in a social media post.
“Our American friends are indeed preparing security guarantees,” he wrote. “But their stance is: first a territory swap, then security guarantees. My view is: first, security guarantees. Second, we will not relinquish our territories, though we are open to compromise. But this compromise cannot allow Russia to quickly regroup and launch another invasion to occupy us.”