Crucial nuclear talks between the United States and Iran are poised to restart in Switzerland, casting a shadow of anxiety across the Middle East. The region is holding its breath, bracing for a potential American military response if these high-stakes negotiations fail.
Key figures, including Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, are expected to be present at Tuesday’s discussions in Geneva. These individuals have played significant roles in shaping Mr. Trump’s diplomatic strategy, particularly concerning the Middle East.
Speaking from Air Force One on Monday, President Trump hinted at his indirect involvement in what he described as “very important” talks. He underscored his belief that Iran genuinely desires a deal, driven by a desire to avoid the severe repercussions of a non-agreement.
This diplomatic push follows Mr. Trump’s directive to bolster U.S. military presence in the region, including two aircraft carriers. This move came after he pledged support last month for anti-government protesters in Iran, whose demonstrations were subsequently suppressed in a brutal crackdown that reportedly resulted in thousands of fatalities.
President Trump has since issued a clear ultimatum to Iran: agree to an immediate accord or face the possibility of a U.S. attack. In a recent social media post, he reiterated his preference for a deal but warned that if negotiations prove unsuccessful, “we will just have to see what the outcome will be.”
Across the region, nations express deep concern. They fear that an American strike, coupled with potential Iranian retaliation that could involve Israel, might severely destabilize the Middle East and jeopardize U.S. allies in Arab states where American troops are stationed.
The path to a compromise capable of preventing military escalation remains uncertain. U.S. officials maintain that discussions with Iran must extend beyond its nuclear program to include its ballistic missile development and its backing of proxy militias throughout the Middle East.
However, while Iranian leaders have expressed readiness to discuss their nuclear ambitions, they have shown little willingness to budge on these other critical issues.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Switzerland on Monday for a meeting with Oman’s foreign minister. Oman previously facilitated the initial round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington earlier this month. Araghchi stated on social media that he was in Geneva “with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal.”
He emphatically added, “What is not on the table: submission before threats.”
Adding to the regional tensions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s influential security force, reportedly conducted a naval “war game” in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency.
Despite their firm stance, the Iranian government is facing significant pressure to finalize an agreement. The nation’s economy has been severely impacted by stringent international sanctions, which played a role in igniting the recent wave of protests against the authoritarian regime.
Last year, efforts by U.S. and Iranian officials to secure a deal that would lift sanctions in exchange for ending Iranian nuclear enrichment ultimately failed. This breakdown led to Israel launching a military campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, sparking a 12-day conflict between the two countries.
Subsequently, U.S. stealth bombers joined the Israeli offensive, targeting three Iranian nuclear sites. While President Trump initially claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been completely destroyed by the bombings, American intelligence later concluded that it had been severely damaged but not fully obliterated.
Following a meeting with the American president in Washington last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conveyed Mr. Trump’s belief that Iran “must surely understand that they missed out last time” by not demonstrating more flexibility in the 2025 talks.
Netanyahu further stated on Sunday evening in Jerusalem, addressing American Jewish leaders, that President Trump “thinks there is a serious probability that they won’t miss out this time.”
Nevertheless, Netanyahu expressed strong skepticism regarding “any deal with Iran.” He insisted that Israel’s demands for any agreement include a complete ban on nuclear enrichment, stringent controls on ballistic missiles, and an end to Iran’s support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.