As fresh peace talks loom, Ukrainian officials report intense pressure from the Trump administration to concede to Russia. The US aim? To broker an end to the war by early summer.
Despite this push, both Ukrainian sources and independent analysts observe Russia’s unwavering commitment to the conflict. With ample resources and steady, albeit slow, battlefield gains, Moscow shows no real inclination to cease hostilities.
Caught between American demands and its own national interests, Ukraine faces a delicate balancing act. President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced frustration over Washington’s heavier hand on Kyiv than on Moscow, yet acknowledges the vital need to maintain the Trump administration’s involvement.
Last week, Zelensky revealed the US ambition to end the war by June is driven by its internal political calendar, anticipating a shift in the Trump administration’s focus away from Ukraine as midterm elections draw near.
“We certainly hope the Americans remain committed to these peace discussions,” Zelensky stated, adding that the Trump administration is expected to intensify pressure on both sides to meet its self-imposed June deadline.
This week, Zelensky confirmed Ukraine’s intent to send a delegation to Florida for upcoming talks, though Russia’s participation remains unconfirmed. A previous meeting in the UAE, also attended by American representatives, yielded minimal breakthroughs.
The potential response from the United States, should Ukraine resist certain demands regarding territory or elections, is vague. President Trump’s consistent desire to be credited with ending the conflict has seen past deadlines pass without major repercussions. US officials have continued to participate in negotiations, even as Ukraine has rejected Moscow-leaning proposals initially presented by Washington.
While Zelensky hasn’t been directly informed of a US withdrawal, Ukrainian Parliament member Yaroslav Yurchyshyn disclosed that the Trump administration has indeed threatened to exit negotiations if Ukraine doesn’t show willingness to compromise, particularly on the issue of holding elections.
According to Yurchyshyn’s parliamentary sources, the US pushed for Ukrainian elections by May 15th during the UAE talks. However, given the ongoing conflict, holding elections so imminently is seen as highly improbable by Kyiv.
This American insistence on elections conveniently echoes Russian demands. President Vladimir Putin has previously questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy, claiming he ‘fears a presidential election,’ thereby rendering any agreement with him meaningless.
Since February 2022, Ukraine has operated under martial law, suspending elections. Public opinion polls consistently indicate minimal support for resuming elections until hostilities cease and safe voting conditions can be ensured.
Despite public sentiment, some opposition voices suggest Zelensky himself might favor early elections, believing it could provide him with an edge over unprepared rivals.
Nevertheless, Zelensky has tasked Parliament with drafting wartime election legislation. A leading Ukrainian lawmaker announced Thursday that a working group will soon present a preliminary plan.
Irrespective of any concessions, Ukraine maintains that a deal with Moscow is impossible without solid security guarantees from its Western allies, designed to prevent future Russian aggression.
The precise nature of these security assurances remains undefined, even after years of negotiations and intense diplomatic efforts throughout the Trump administration.
While both American and Ukrainian leadership have consistently claimed significant progress towards security guarantees, with a document reportedly nearing completion, recent talks seem to have centered on technicalities like cease-fire violation protocols. Crucial questions for Ukraine, necessary before agreeing to concessions, largely remain unanswered.
Many in Kyiv, however, harbor doubts, suspecting that Putin will ultimately reject any agreement offering security guarantees robust enough to satisfy Ukraine.
“We aim for a war’s end that satisfies both the United States and the Ukrainian populace,” Zelensky declared. He stressed, “Even compromises must be just,” and expressed a strong preference for “signing security guarantees before any other documents.”
Territory remains a major sticking point in talks. The US is urging Kyiv to cede ground in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Zelensky revealed last week that Putin explicitly requested this territory from Trump, stating, “Essentially: Hand over all of Donbas, and the war ends.”
Zelensky noted that the US has repeatedly proposed Ukraine withdraw from the controlled parts of Donbas, transforming it into a “free economic zone.”
However, Zelensky clarified that “neither side has ever embraced this idea.” Ukraine’s consistent counter-proposal calls for a mutual, equal withdrawal of both armies from the front lines.
If Ukraine were to fully withdraw from Donbas, questions persist regarding whether Russian or international entities would police and administer the region.
Despite ongoing peace discussions, Zelensky warns that the Russian Army is “gearing up for continued combat,” with Ukrainian intelligence indicating a significant increase in Russian weapons production.
Historically, Russia has launched major spring offensives. This year is anticipated to be no different, with Moscow likely to seek further territorial gains and intensify pressure in negotiations.
Mykhailo Samus, director of Kyiv’s New Geopolitics Research Network, asserts, “Russia will only consider a cease-fire once its economic and military advantages significantly wane.”
He advocates for “tightening restrictions on Russian oil and supplying Ukraine with air defense systems, rather than indulging in fantasies,” concluding, “Diplomatically, I see no progress whatsoever.”
Thanks partly to Trump administration sanctions, Russia’s critical oil revenues—funding its war machine—have dropped considerably. Western estimates also suggest Moscow is recruiting fewer new soldiers than it’s losing on the Ukrainian front.
Despite these setbacks, Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukraine persist. The Conflict Intelligence Team, an open-source research group, reports a rise in civilian casualties in 2025.
Echoing the concerns of many Ukrainians, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk publicly questioned, “Why has the year of Trump’s negotiations led to the highest civilian death toll in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion?”