Thailand faced a critical juncture, presenting its citizens with two dramatically different paths forward: one emphasizing nationalism, strong monarchical ties, and the preservation of the current system, and the other championing promises of reform and genuine democracy.
In an unexpected turn that observers link to the unpredictable global landscape, the nationalist vision triumphed in Sunday’s election. With 89 percent of votes tallied, Bhumjaithai, the party representing the conservative-royalist establishment, secured 194 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives. This placed them ahead of the progressive People’s Party, which garnered 115 seats, according to preliminary results from the Election Commission.
This marks the first time in years that Thai voters have backed an establishment party, indicating a clear move away from the progressive wave that had characterized recent Thai politics. The results reflect a desire for continuity amid perceived external threats and defied pre-election polls that had consistently given the People’s Party a slight lead.
The election represented a significant victory for Bhumjaithai, a party traditionally recognized for its regional influence and more recently as a ‘kingmaker’ in Thai politics. Its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, had served as prime minister of a minority government for the preceding five months and initiated the snap election to preempt a potential no-confidence vote.
While Mr. Anutin did not secure an outright majority, his strong performance, combined with a Senate largely composed of Bhumjaithai allies, is expected to give him full control over both legislative chambers.
“We will accept the decision of the people in giving us the confidence, the trust to the Bhumjaithai party,” Mr. Anutin stated to reporters at his party’s Bangkok headquarters.
The vote followed months after a bloody border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Mr. Anutin effectively leveraged this conflict, campaigning on a platform of enhanced security. He pledged to construct a border wall, expand a ‘volunteer military’ program, and famously promised that if Cambodia launched one rocket, Thailand would retaliate with a hundred.
Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, suggested that voter concerns over the conflict, alongside the unpredictable foreign policy of Thailand’s ally, the United States, under President Trump, influenced the outcome.
“People’s priorities have shifted from reform to the need for stability,” Ms. Tita observed.
The results were a setback for the progressive People’s Party, which had hoped to replicate its previous electoral successes. Analysts believe the party’s earlier advocacy for military reform weakened its position, allowing Mr. Anutin to portray them as unpatriotic.
On Sunday evening, the People’s Party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, acknowledged the results but firmly rejected forming a coalition with Bhumjaithai, confirming his party would remain in opposition.
“Don’t stop believing,” he urged. “Don’t lose hope. We’ve come so far.”
This defeat has sparked internal debate within the People’s Party regarding its campaign strategy, particularly its move towards the political center in an attempt to appear more agreeable to Thailand’s powerful conservative establishment, which includes the military, judiciary, and royal family.
“From a purely ideological standpoint, there has been a brand dilution,” commented Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow with the Thailand Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “Its core supporters, primarily the youth, who were inclined to vote for the party on the basis of ideology, are just not as energized this time around.”
Mr. Anutin assumed the premiership late last year with the support of the People’s Party, then the largest bloc in Parliament. This alliance was forged with promises of early elections and a referendum to revise the military-drafted Constitution, a referendum that saw over 65 percent voter approval.
“The People’s Party’s decision to support Anutin as prime minister is probably going to be seen in retrospect as a major mistake,” said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, an independent political analyst. “They handed him the benefits of incumbency, they allowed him to consolidate the conservative vote and they also damaged their own ideological standing.”
Mr. Anutin remained reticent about potential coalition partners, though Chaichanok Chidchob, Bhumjaithai’s secretary general, expressed a personal desire to collaborate with the People’s Party.
“I like a lot of their ideas,” he said, adding, “But of course, we’ll have conditions. For me, I want them to be clear about their standpoint about the royal family.”
He emphasized: “All this anti-monarchy stuff, it has to stop. We have so many other issues that we need to focus and solve.”
Bhumjaithai draws its foundational support from Thailand’s traditional guard of civil servants, military personnel, and royalists, with strong backing from the influential Chidchob family in the northeastern province of Buriram.
Many voters appeared swayed by Mr. Anutin’s perceived ability to deliver tangible results.
Theerayuth Preedeesawat, a 47-year-old Bhumjaithai supporter, expressed his belief that his quality of life had improved under Mr. Anutin’s leadership.
“He got things done with the Thai-Cambodia border clashes,” Mr. Theerayuth stated at a Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. “He’s a man of action. I think Anutin is the best option for the country. He’s faithful to the people, the king and the country.”
Muktita Suhartono and Kittiphum Sringammuang contributed reporting.