While Canada’s relationship with the United States has been rocky under President Trump, its ties with China, the world’s other major superpower, have plunged to even greater depths.
This crucial relationship has been severely damaged by years of intense animosity and profound distrust from both nations.
China has, at times, treated Canadian citizens as political bargaining chips, its supreme leader once publicly embarrassed a former Canadian prime minister, and both countries are currently entangled in a harsh tariff dispute. A recent survey revealed that among all nations, Canadians generally place less trust in China than even in the United States.
Despite these challenges, a sense of cautious optimism now surrounds the first official meeting between the leaders of these two nations since 2017.
The very fact that Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Xi Jinping are meeting highlights how former President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs and erratic diplomatic style have compelled a historically close U.S. ally like Canada to seek engagement with China.
Roland Paris, an international relations professor at the University of Ottawa, observed, ‘Trump’s influence is an unspoken factor in every global leadership meeting today.’ He emphasized that ‘for Canada, the paramount priority remains managing its relationship with the United States, our closest trading partner.’
However, he added, ‘if there’s a chance to alleviate the Chinese tariffs, that would be a significant achievement.’
Nonetheless, it’s wise to temper expectations for Friday’s meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, where both leaders are present for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
Upon Justin Trudeau, a Liberal, assuming the role of prime minister in 2015, Canada-China relations were already strained due to ongoing criticism of China’s human rights practices by the preceding Conservative administration.
Although Mr. Trudeau initially prioritized mending this relationship, a sequence of events further exacerbated the tensions.
A major escalation occurred in 2018 when a senior Chinese telecommunications executive was apprehended in British Columbia based on a U.S. extradition request. Shortly thereafter, China detained two Canadian citizens. While all three were eventually freed in what was essentially a prisoner exchange, this incident continues to fuel significant resentment in Canada.
Adding to the diplomatic friction, in 2022, President Xi publicly reprimanded Mr. Trudeau during a reception in Indonesia, in full view of a news cameraman. Xi accused the Canadian leader of divulging private details from an earlier discussion, an interaction that struck many as resembling a stern teacher addressing a student.
Furthermore, a Canadian investigation this year uncovered evidence of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, although it concluded that these efforts did not ultimately alter the election results.
Most recently, China imposed tariffs as high as 100 percent on canola, an oilseed crop that represented approximately 5 billion Canadian dollars (about $3.6 billion USD) in sales last year and is Canada’s most significant agricultural export to China.
This move against canola came after Canada itself implemented a 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
Despite the lingering animosity, several experts see an opportunity for a more constructive path forward.
Lynette Ong, a political scientist and Asian specialist at the University of Toronto, remarked, ‘The global landscape has shifted quite dramatically in the last six months.’
She pointed out that, beyond Mr. Trump’s extensive tariffs, the most crucial factor is China’s decelerating economy, which is compelling President Xi to reassess his nation’s international engagements.
Ong explained, ‘When China’s economy was thriving, Xi could afford to maintain strained relations with numerous countries without much concern. Now, however, boosting exports for economic recovery is a pressing need.’
Recently, Wang Di, China’s ambassador to Canada, suggested via social media that lifting electric vehicle tariffs would ‘usher in the spring of improvement’ for bilateral relations. In a Canadian television interview, Mr. Wang confirmed that such a tariff removal would lead China to abolish its own duties on canola.
Prime Minister Carney is also experiencing domestic pressure, as two premiers from canola-producing provinces have urged the government to eliminate the electric vehicle tariff.
Canada has largely blocked Chinese-made electric vehicles, a policy influenced by strong lobbying from Detroit-based automakers and Unifor, the union representing Canadian automotive workers.
However, Greig Mordue, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, and a former general manager for Toyota’s Canadian factories, argues that these tariffs are shielding companies that have been struggling for a long time.
Just this month, Stellantis relocated Jeep production from a Canadian facility to the United States, casting doubt on the future of its suburban Toronto plant. Similarly, General Motors halted electric van production, leading to the closure of another Ontario auto factory.
Mordue highlighted the dramatic decline, stating, ‘General Motors, which once produced around 1.2 million vehicles annually in Canada as recently as two decades ago, is now down to just 100,000.’
Currently, roughly 75% of cars manufactured in Canada originate from factories belonging to Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda.
Mordue suggested that Canada could bolster its auto industry by adopting a strategy similar to its past approach with Japanese automakers: progressively removing tariffs on Chinese vehicles in exchange for Chinese companies establishing manufacturing plants in Canada and increasing local production.
Nonetheless, Canada must carefully balance its efforts to become more open to Chinese imports. Such a strategy risks drawing further criticism from Mr. Trump, given the fierce global rivalry between the United States and China.
Mordue concluded, ‘A small opportunity is emerging, and it’s up to the Canadian government to decide if they are ready to widen that opening and confront the consequences.’
However, Xu Yanzhou, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, informed Chinese media that a significant shift in Canada’s stance toward China is improbable. This is largely due to Canada’s enduring reliance on the United States for security and concerns about potential retaliation from the Trump administration.
She asserted that Ottawa’s ‘defensive posture toward China remains strong, and their position on crucial sensitive issues has not fundamentally changed.’
President Xi might also bring up other concerns during the meeting, particularly Canada’s use of foreign investment laws to block acquisitions of Canadian companies, especially those in natural resources, citing national security.
Even so, China’s human rights record and its perceived attempts to undermine democratic processes will significantly constrain any concessions Mr. Carney might be able to make.
Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, acknowledged the difficulty: ‘It’s a challenging endeavor to establish a trading relationship with a country whose fundamental values you disagree with.’ He added, ‘Nevertheless, both nations stand to gain economically and politically by identifying areas for cooperation.’
Departing Malaysia, the initial stop on his week-long Asian tour, Mr. Carney remarked that his discussions with China were ‘beginning from a very low point,’ suggesting that this could be an advantage.
Carney elaborated, ‘There isn’t a predefined offer on the table. This is about building a relationship, not just a transaction. We are focused on cultivating that relationship.’
Vivian Wang and Siyi Zhao contributed reporting from Beijing.