Emerging from his meeting with President Trump on Thursday, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, exuded the composure of a potent statesman, clearly dictating the narrative of the negotiations.
Mr. Xi adeptly wielded China’s considerable influence, particularly its control over rare earth minerals and its massive demand for U.S. soybeans. This strategic maneuvering secured vital concessions from Washington, including a cut in tariffs, a halt on port fees for Chinese vessels, and a postponement of U.S. export restrictions targeting Chinese tech companies. Furthermore, both nations extended an existing tariff truce for an additional year.
Julian Gewirtz, a former senior China policy official, observed that China is growing bolder in its use of leverage, readily accepting U.S. concessions without significant reciprocity.
In Busan, South Korea, Mr. Xi addressed Mr. Trump with an almost pedagogical tone, suggesting that the recent volatile turns in the trade dispute offered valuable lessons for both leaders, as reported in a Chinese government summary of the meeting.
“Both sides should consider the bigger picture and focus on the long-term benefits of cooperation, rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation,” Mr. Xi said.
These ‘twists and turns’ likely referred to nearly a year of escalating retaliatory tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. Just weeks prior, China significantly upped the ante by declaring comprehensive new restrictions on rare earth minerals—essential components for virtually all modern technology. Such a move had the potential to devastate American industries.
Beijing’s message was clear: it possessed the capability to retaliate effectively, a fact Washington would do well to acknowledge.
Professor Zhu Feng of Nanjing University highlighted that China was unique in matching the U.S. ‘blow for blow’ after Trump initiated the trade war. He suggested China’s primary victory might be compelling the U.S. to reconsider future punitive actions.
He elaborated that if Trump had fully enforced rare earth export controls on China, it would have resulted in a mutually detrimental situation for both countries.
Simultaneously, Mr. Xi appeared to understand President Trump’s domestic political requirements, delivering a deal that Trump could successfully present as a victory to his constituents. Despite China primarily reverting to previous agreements—purchasing soybeans and delaying further rare earth restrictions—Trump was able to frame this as a win for American agriculture and businesses.
President Trump, fist pumping as he boarded Air Force One, later announced that Mr. Xi had committed to stronger measures against fentanyl precursor chemicals entering the U.S. He also shared that China pledged to increase U.S. soybean purchases, exclaiming on Truth Social, ‘Our Farmers will be very happy! I would like to thank President Xi for this!’
Following the summit, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it would suspend the October rare earth restrictions for a year. Notably, there was no mention of earlier controls from April.
In a related development, Mr. Trump stated he would halve the 20% tariffs previously imposed on Chinese goods, a measure aimed at curbing fentanyl trafficking. This reduction decreases the overall tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to roughly 47%. The Chinese commerce ministry also confirmed a one-year extension of the tariff truce, originally slated to end on November 10.
Some analysts contend that China held an inherent advantage in the trade conflict, attributing it to the Trump administration’s perceived lack of a coherent strategy.
Jonathan Czin, a Brookings Institution fellow and former C.I.A. analyst on Chinese politics, characterized the U.S. approach as ‘tactics without a strategy.’
Czin further explained that while the stated objective was to tackle substantial, long-standing trade disputes, the People’s Republic of China effectively turned the situation into a ‘whack-a-mole’ game for the Trump Administration.
However, in what could be seen as a notable concession from Beijing, China’s official summary of the meeting omitted any mention of Taiwan, the self-governing island that China considers its territory. This topic is typically raised by Chinese leaders to exert pressure on Washington regarding U.S. support for Taiwan.
The Thursday agreements could usher in a period of temporary tranquility in the often-turbulent U.S.-China relationship. President Trump also revealed discussions about collaborating to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. He announced plans to visit China in April, with Mr. Xi returning the visit to the U.S. later.
Capitalizing on Mr. Trump’s inclination for personal connections, Mr. Xi aligned China’s growth with the president’s ‘Make America Great Again’ vision. In turn, Mr. Trump praised Mr. Xi as ‘a great leader of a great country’ and ‘a great friend.’
Lizzi C. Lee, an Asia Society Policy Institute fellow specializing in the Chinese economy, noted that this personalized diplomatic approach resonates with both leaders. For the immediate future, these goodwill gestures appear to pave the way for a phase of controlled stability.
However, any progress achieved on Thursday remains fragile and could swiftly unravel if either side perceives a violation of the agreement. A prior deal nearly collapsed when the U.S. broadened its ban on Chinese companies accessing American technology, prompting China to implement its rare earth export controls. This escalation led Mr. Trump to threaten canceling Thursday’s meeting and imposing further tariffs.
Without a concrete, finalized agreement, the longevity of this current détente remains uncertain.
Regarding the truce, Ja Ian Chong, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, expressed skepticism, stating, ‘Maybe I’m jaded because I’ve seen this movie too many times, but these are issues that are relatively easy to roll back and also to accuse the other side of bad faith.’
The day’s positive developments faced potential overshadowing by President Trump’s announcement, made just before the meeting, that the U.S. would resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time in over three decades. Despite Trump’s remarks on Air Force One suggesting the move was not aimed at China, analysts remained unsure if Mr. Xi would interpret it as a provocation.
However, Chinese experts emphasized that the American president’s focus on cooperation with China was paramount.
Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, asserted that if President Trump is genuinely committed to a particular course of action, his administration would follow suit without deviation.