In a dramatic turn for Dutch politics, a center-left party has emerged as the clear frontrunner in Wednesday’s national elections. This outcome delivers a significant blow to the far-right movement that reshaped the country’s political landscape in the previous election, according to preliminary exit polls.
Democrats 66, a prominent center-left party, is poised to secure 27 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, positioning them as the largest political force. Close behind, Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom is projected to hold 25 seats.
This marks a considerable setback for Mr. Wilders, whose party is expected to forfeit 12 seats in the national assembly.
Taking to social media immediately after the exit polls, Mr. Wilders acknowledged, “The voter has spoken.” He added, “We had hoped for a different result, but kept our backs straight. We are more combative than ever and still the second and maybe even the biggest party of the Netherlands.”
As no single party has secured an outright majority, the intricate process of coalition-building will now commence, potentially spanning several months. While the identity of the next prime minister remains uncertain, Rob Jetten, the leader of D66, emerged as a strong contender on Wednesday evening.
Amidst a backdrop of cheering supporters waving national flags, Mr. Jetten declared, “We succeeded.” He emphasized, “Millions of Dutch people chose for positive forces and politics that looks ahead.”
This historic moment marks the first time in its 59-year existence that D66, which built considerable momentum in the weeks leading up to the election, stands to become the Netherlands’ largest political party. The results indicate an impressive gain of 18 seats in the House of Representatives.
This setback for the far-right is not an isolated event, reflecting a broader trend of political polarization sweeping across Europe. Voters throughout the continent are grappling with profoundly divergent political ideologies, often divided by pressing concerns such as immigration, housing affordability, and rising crime rates.
These very issues dominated the discourse in the Dutch election campaign, with the housing market, immigration, and healthcare consistently ranking as the foremost concerns for voters in the weeks preceding the ballot.
The election also served as a de facto referendum on Mr. Wilders and his party’s controversial platform. Mr. Wilders has previously advocated for an end to immigration from Muslim-majority nations, the imposition of taxes on headscarves, and a ban on the Quran. His party, the PVV, has also championed a complete halt to asylum applications.
In 2023, the Party for Freedom achieved a stunning electoral triumph, claiming the largest proportion of seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. That victory dramatically reshaped the nation’s political contours, establishing Mr. Wilders as an undeniable presence.
Despite this, he never ascended to the premiership, as he failed to garner sufficient support from other lawmakers to form a right-wing government while maintaining his claim to the top office.
In July, Mr. Wilders withdrew his party from the ruling coalition, citing its failure to advance his promised “strictest migration policy ever.” This decision triggered the snap elections. On Wednesday night, despite his party’s significant losses, Mr. Wilders maintained he had no regrets about his earlier withdrawal.
This electoral cycle, casting a vote for Mr. Wilders was largely seen as futile, according to Janka Stoker, a professor at the University of Groningen. The leaders of other prominent parties had preemptively ruled out any coalition with him. This stands in stark contrast to the 2023 elections, where the head of the liberal party, for the first time in over a decade, had indicated a willingness to collaborate with him.
With the PVV sidelined, the onus is now on the centrist parties to forge a collaborative alliance and achieve the majority required to establish a new government.
Simon Otjes, an assistant professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, notes that D66 possesses the unique capacity to bridge the ideological divide between the right and the left, observing that the party adopted a slightly more right-leaning stance during this campaign.
However, Professor Otjes cautioned that the center-left party’s apparent victory in securing the largest vote share doesn’t necessarily signify a definitive defeat for populism in the Netherlands.
Indeed, other far-right parties in the Netherlands appear to have absorbed much of the ground lost by the PVV. Exit polls indicate that JA21 and Forum for Democracy are collectively projected to gain 11 seats – almost mirroring the number of seats Mr. Wilders’ party lost.
The Dutch political landscape remains fragmented. Nevertheless, the election results are significant, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of “populist clouds hovering over the rest of Europe,” as described by Professor Otjes.
While Mr. Wilders’ party has historically anchored its appeal in migration issues, a strategy that resonated with many voters, centrist parties have now started proposing their own strategies to manage immigrant flows. This mirrors a broader trend observed across the European continent.
Furthermore, it’s possible that a significant portion of Dutch voters were seeking a return to stability after enduring several years of political turbulence.
In a parallel development, the left-wing coalition of Green and Labor parties also faced a setback, projected to lose five seats in the House. Following this outcome, Frans Timmermans resigned as the bloc’s leader, telling his supporters, “Better times will come.”
Wobke van der Kolk, 71, a volunteer for the left-wing bloc, expressed a sentiment of unmet expectations: “I think we expected more. The right has remained quite strong.”
In Amsterdam, 48-year-old voter Gigi van Steenbergen articulated a desire for normalcy: “I want this country to function properly again. I never used to be into politics, but now I feel like it takes up 75 percent of my thinking time.”
This sentiment was echoed in The Hague, where Aaltje de Roos, after casting her vote for the Green and Labor bloc at Central Station, stated, “It’s important that we become a decent, reasonable country again.”