The Netherlands is gearing up for parliamentary elections this Wednesday, following the dramatic collapse of its governing coalition earlier this year, sparked by Geert Wilders’ far-right party.
Geert Wilders, a prominent populist figure known for his anti-Islam and anti-immigrant stances, is once again at the center of this election. This crucial vote, which will determine 150 members of Parliament, essentially serves as a public evaluation of the far-right movement and the prevailing influence of nationalist ideologies.
With much of Europe currently experiencing a shift towards conservative and nationalist politics, particularly concerning asylum policies, the outcome of this election could provide valuable insight into the future performance of other far-right parties in national elections, even those that have previously triggered significant political instability.
As Dutch citizens head to the polls, here’s a closer look at what to expect.
Is the Far Right on Shaky Ground?
The Netherlands is electing representatives for its 150-seat House of Representatives, the primary legislative chamber of its bicameral Parliament. Current polls indicate that Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) might see a reduction in their number of seats.
The PVV’s popularity has dipped since it caused the government’s collapse earlier this year. Despite a significant victory in 2023, Wilders never actually became prime minister. He couldn’t muster enough support to form a right-wing coalition, especially when he demanded the top position for himself.
In June, Wilders withdrew his party from the ruling coalition, arguing that its approach to migration was not extreme enough. He advocated for a stringent 10-point plan, including deploying the military to patrol borders and closing all asylum centers.
This political turmoil ultimately triggered a snap election.
The PVV is still poised to win the most seats, based on polls. However, a left-wing coalition of the Green and Labour parties, along with centrist groups like the progressive D66 and the moderately conservative Christian Democrats, are expected to be close contenders.
Interestingly, some former PVV voters appear to be shifting their allegiance to other, even more conservative, far-right parties, with JA21 showing a notable rise in recent surveys.
Given that no single party is likely to win an outright majority, a coalition government will almost certainly need to be formed. With at least 27 parties participating, and 16 projected to win seats, the post-election negotiations are set to be complex.
Several major parties have explicitly stated their refusal to join any new coalition involving Wilders’ PVV. Should they uphold this position, the PVV would likely be excluded from governance, effectively ending Wilders’ hopes of becoming prime minister.
Who Will Lead the Nation?
While the initial seat count should become clear relatively quickly, forming a new governing coalition after the election is anticipated to be a protracted and challenging endeavor.
According to Henk van der Kolk, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, the process of establishing a new government could extend for several months.
With a significant number of voters still undecided in the days leading up to the election, as indicated by recent polls, forecasting both the final results and the composition of the eventual ruling coalition remains exceptionally difficult.
A few prominent figures are potential candidates for prime minister, including Henri Bontenbal of the Christian Democrats and Frans Timmermans from the center-left alliance.
Dick Schoof, the current caretaker prime minister, a politically independent former intelligence chief, emerged as an unexpected choice after Wilders stepped back from prime ministerial contention.
Key Issues Dominating the Election
Migration, particularly asylum policy, continues to be a central and highly debated issue in this election.
Political scientist Henk van der Kolk notes that “it’s such an easy issue to connect everything else to.” Candidates frequently link migration to other pressing concerns such as crime rates and the rising cost of housing.
Despite widespread rhetoric focusing on refugees, statistics show that only about 12% of migrants entering the Netherlands are asylum seekers. The overwhelming majority of new arrivals are either students or workers, with the latter group forming a vital component of the country’s labor force.
Similar to many European nations, the Netherlands faces an aging population, making immigration a primary driver of its demographic growth.
Nevertheless, the issue of migration retains its political prominence, particularly as the country grapples with persistent and complex challenges like escalating housing prices and a severe shortage of available homes. These are difficult problems to solve, and often, it’s easier to attribute blame to external factors.
However, voters might also be seeking greater stability after years of political turmoil, suggests Barbara Vis, a politics professor at Utrecht University. Although the Netherlands is constitutionally mandated to hold parliamentary elections every four years, recent government collapses have led to elections in 2021, 2023, and now 2025.
“There’s a genuine desire for more reliability,” Ms. Vis emphasized.
Will the New Government Endure?
A critical question is whether this election can finally steer the Netherlands away from its prolonged period of political instability. The longevity of any new government will hinge on the intricacies of its formation and whether any party perceives an advantage in triggering another collapse.
“Considering that it will likely be a four or five-party coalition, true stability will probably remain elusive,” stated Mr. van der Kolk. He added that genuine stability would only emerge if the supporting parties maintain consistent public backing and commit to collaborative governance.