A new assessment from the United Nations reveals that the world’s current carbon-cutting commitments are far from adequate. On Tuesday, the UN reported that national pledges would only lead to a 10 percent reduction in emissions by 2035, a figure deemed insufficient to avert the worst impacts of climate change. This overview was challenging to compile as many nations failed to submit their updated plans in a timely manner.
With the critical COP30 climate talks in Brazil fast approaching, UN Climate Change presented its emissions calculations alongside an incomplete formal review of national 2035 targets. This broader calculation included anticipated efforts from major emitters like China and the European Union, who had not yet provided their full, official revised commitments.
Just last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that sluggish global action makes it “inevitable” that the target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be missed in the near term. This would trigger devastating consequences during an “overshoot” period, requiring intense global efforts to eventually bring temperatures back down by the century’s end.
Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief, acknowledged that the projected 10 percent emissions cut indicates humanity is beginning to bend the emissions curve downwards for the first time, but stressed it’s “still not nearly fast enough.”
According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions must plummet by 60 percent by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels) to maintain a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the more ambitious goal outlined in the Paris climate agreement.
“The science is crystal clear: temperatures absolutely can and must be brought back down to 1.5C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot, by substantially stepping up the pace on all fronts,” Stiell emphasized.
The Incomplete Picture of Global Climate Action
The two-week COP30 climate negotiations, commencing on November 10 in the Amazon, face the formidable task of reinvigorating climate momentum. This comes amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic worries, and a growing concern that the most ambitious climate targets are already becoming unattainable.
The landmark 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to cap global warming at well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. With the planet already experiencing approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius of warming today, many scientists believe the 1.5-degree threshold is likely to be surpassed before this decade concludes, as fossil fuel combustion continues unabated.
However, experts underscore the critical importance of every fraction of a degree avoided, as each reduction helps mitigate the severity of future dangers.
Should temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, scientists suggest humanity would likely need to rely on currently unproven large-scale carbon removal technologies to reverse the warming trend.
Under the Paris Agreement, nations are mandated to submit increasingly ambitious “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) every five years, with plans for 2035 due this year. The UN reported that only 64 of nearly 200 parties to the agreement submitted their NDCs by the September deadline for the official annual report.
Consequently, Stiell noted that the official document offers “quite a limited picture.” This forced the UN to undertake a more comprehensive, albeit still incomplete, calculation, which projects a global emissions reduction of approximately 10 percent by 2035.
This estimate notably included the US submission, made prior to Donald Trump’s potential return as president in January. Trump has previously announced intentions to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement a second time, dismissed climate change as a “hoax,” and taken steps to curtail scientific research and data collection.
The calculation also factored in a pledge from China, the world’s largest emitter, to reduce its emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035 – marking its first absolute national target. Furthermore, the European Union’s “statement of intent” to achieve a 66.25 percent to 72.5 percent emissions cut by 2035 relative to 1990 levels was considered, despite internal disagreements within the 27-nation bloc regarding its climate ambitions.
“We are still in the race, but to ensure a livable planet for all eight billion people today, we must urgently pick up the pace, at COP30 and every year thereafter,” Stiell urged.