Vietnam and Russia are rekindling a potent military and political alliance, a move with significant global implications. Our investigation, drawing on confidential documents from a Russian defense contractor and insights from officials across Vietnam, the United States, and other regional players, uncovers a series of hidden Russian arms acquisitions by Vietnam, sophisticated covert payment mechanisms, and a notable shift in Hanoi’s diplomatic stance. Once warming to Washington under President Biden, Vietnam is now openly embracing Moscow.
These transactions, alongside high-level diplomatic engagements and public declarations, underscore a pivotal change in Vietnam’s geopolitical alignment. It not only marks a departure from its recent rapprochement with the U.S. but also signifies Russia’s bold assertion of its continued influence, particularly in a region closely watched by China. Below, we delve into three critical insights from our extensive reporting.
Vietnam’s Covert Arms Buys from Russia Raise Alarms.
Whispers began circulating in online Vietnamese military forums this summer about Vietnam securing substantial new deals with Russia for advanced air and sea defense systems. These alleged agreements risked violating international sanctions. A confidential spreadsheet excerpt, shared by a source, revealed Vietnam – identified as “customer 704” – was acquiring an electronic warfare system for the formidable Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet.
A high-ranking Vietnamese military officer validated these claims, confirming that the nation was actively evaluating various aircraft to replace its aging fleet of fighter jets and helicopters, some dating back to the 1980s. This urgency signals a critical modernization need.
Adding to the concern, a U.S. congressional official disclosed that lawmakers received a classified briefing earlier this year. The briefing detailed Vietnam’s ongoing military procurements and significant upgrades to its naval and air defenses. This alarm was particularly acute given previous proposals for American military equipment sales to Vietnam had stalled.
Further revelations emerged this month when a pro-Ukrainian hacker group leaked approximately 1,000 documents from Rostec, a prominent Russian military exporter. Amidst hundreds of files, often ambiguously named, were clear references to Vietnam, labeled as “customer 704.”
The comprehensive spreadsheet unveiled in these files corroborated existing orders from Iran and Algeria, and crucially, confirmed Vietnam’s acquisition of nine Su-35 electronic warfare systems. Additionally, Vietnam procured several sets of ground-based versions of these systems and their components, totaling nearly $190 million. These sophisticated systems are capable of jamming and redirecting enemy missiles.
While Vietnam has yet to officially announce these purchases or any new orders for Russian jets, military analysts who have examined the records believe this represents Vietnam’s most significant defense investment in years. This development is especially sensitive given the current geopolitical climate, where financial support flowing to Russia is increasingly scrutinized by the United States and Europe due to the war in Ukraine.
A Vietnamese official, among several confirming these substantial Russian purchases, stated the deal is valued at $8 billion and encompasses 40 new fighter jets.
Covert Payment Channels: How Vietnam Masked Transactions.
The leaked Rostec documents, originating from a significant Russian military exporter, contained internal complaints from employees regarding payment delays. These delays were a direct consequence of payments being routed through intermediary companies, a tactic employed to circumvent international sanctions imposed on Russia.
Back in 2023, a document from Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance had already detailed a strategy for funneling payments via a Russian-Vietnamese oil and gas joint venture. The Rostec files further revealed the existence of additional military-technical joint ventures facilitating these transactions. One specific record highlighted that a Hanoi-based company had been added to the U.S. sanctions list, a fact independently verified through a U.S. Treasury Department database. Attempts to visit the company’s offices, located in a working-class district of Hanoi, were blocked by security personnel.
American Policies Under Trump Strain U.S.-Vietnam Ties.
Under the Biden administration in 2023, U.S.-Vietnam relations experienced a significant boost, culminating in an elevated comprehensive strategic partnership and a landmark presidential visit.
However, former President Trump’s policies have sharply reversed the consistent post-war reconciliation trend that had been building since the 1990s. Vietnamese officials have expressed considerable frustration with these actions. The shift began with reductions in foreign aid, followed by an alarming proposed 46 percent tariff on Vietnamese goods in April.
Even after this tariff was reduced to 20 percent, Vietnamese authorities continued to vocalize their grievances, citing a pattern of American negotiators making commitments and then acting contrary to them, or presenting ambiguous proposals before imposing unexpected demands. This trend was painfully evident with the recent U.S. tariffs on furniture, a burgeoning industry that the Vietnamese government had strategically prioritized for growth, intending to shift focus from lower-skilled sectors like apparel.
While Vietnam refrains from directly attributing its acquisition of Russian military hardware to former President Trump’s actions, Hanoi asserts its need to navigate its own path, especially as U.S.-China relations continue to fray. For the moment, mirroring historical patterns, Vietnam demonstrates a significantly greater trust in Moscow than in Washington.
“The U.S. needs to acknowledge that Vietnam’s evolution towards a diverse defense supply chain is a gradual, long-term endeavor,” explained a Vietnamese military official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. “This cannot be achieved instantaneously. Rather than applying pressure for Vietnam to cease Russian arms purchases, the U.S. should actively seek to enhance collaboration in non-military domains.”