Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, made history last week as the first woman to lead the nation. Yet, despite never having met former President Donald Trump, and not sharing his known passions for golf or hamburgers, she faces a pivotal moment. Trump is set to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for a state visit, and Takaichi’s primary goal is to secure crucial reassurances on trade and security from him. Her key strategy will be to lean on her strong connection to Shinzo Abe, Japan’s former prime minister who was tragically assassinated in 2022. Abe, Takaichi’s political mentor, had cultivated an exceptionally close relationship with Trump, perhaps more so than any other world leader.
“She will be looking to cloak herself in the mantle of Abe to persuade Trump that she is his woman in Asia and a steadfast partner that he can count on,” noted Mira Rapp-Hooper, a partner at the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm. Takaichi is expected to advocate for renewed American commitment to the long-standing security alliance with Japan and a redoubled effort to counteract China’s growing regional influence. She may also push for Japan to have greater oversight over a substantial $550 billion fund that Japan has pledged to invest in the United States.
However, Trump will likely aim to retain significant control over how that considerable sum is allocated. He is also anticipated to pressure Takaichi to ramp up defense spending, even though Japan has already publicly committed to more than doubling its military budget. Takaichi, a staunch conservative, is widely seen by many officials and analysts as Japan’s best hope for forging a strong rapport with Trump and mitigating his potentially disruptive policies.
Having been endorsed by Abe during her unsuccessful leadership bid in 2021, Takaichi now has a “golden chance” to reset the relationship with the United States, according to Shinsuke J. Sugiyama, who served as Japan’s ambassador to Washington during Trump’s first term. Sugiyama explained, “She has studied how Prime Minister Abe handled President Trump. She learned a lot from him. And if she and President Trump can start talking about how great Shinzo Abe was, I think they won’t be able to disagree on anything.”
Indeed, Abe was celebrated as a master at managing Trump. During Trump’s previous visits to Japan, Abe orchestrated elaborate events, including a memorable sumo wrestling tournament and granting him the unprecedented honor of being the first international leader to meet Japan’s newly enthroned emperor.
A significant visual of this past relationship is captured in an image of President Trump with Shinzo Abe, then the Japanese prime minister, at a sumo tournament in Tokyo in 2019. Mr. Abe was considered an adept handler of Mr. Trump.
This Monday, Trump is scheduled to meet Emperor Naruhito once again. On Tuesday, a lunch with Prime Minister Takaichi awaits him at Akasaka Palace, a prestigious state guest house. He will also address American troops stationed at a naval base near Tokyo, where Japan hosts over 50,000 U.S. personnel.
Like her mentor, Abe, Takaichi has been a proponent of strengthening Japan’s military capabilities, moving away from decades of postwar pacifism. She is keen to demonstrate this commitment to Trump, who has consistently urged allies to boost their defense expenditures. Reflecting this, on Friday, she announced Japan would achieve its goal of spending approximately 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense by next spring, two years ahead of schedule.
An image of a military exercise in Tokunoshima, Japan, in 2023, underscores Japan’s plans to increase defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic output faster than expected.
Trump’s past actions, including his perceived withdrawal from traditional alliances in Europe and Asia, have caused considerable unease among Japanese officials. This is particularly salient given the escalating security challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia in the region.
During her meeting with Trump, Takaichi is expected to voice concerns regarding China’s ongoing militarization of the South China Sea. She has been a staunch advocate for Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, and even visited the island in the spring to meet President Lai Ching-te, advocating for stronger security ties. The strained relationship with China is evident; Chinese leader Xi Jinping did not publicly congratulate Takaichi on her election as prime minister.
Jeffrey W. Hornung, a Japan expert at the RAND research group in Washington, believes Takaichi will likely seek confirmation of Trump’s unwavering commitment to Taiwan’s security. “Japanese officials want to know what the American strategy in the Indo-Pacific is,” Hornung stated.
Beyond security, the trade agreement remains a top agenda item for Trump’s arrival. In July, Japan secured a more favorable 15 percent tariff on its exports – lower than initially threatened – in exchange for its promise to infuse $550 billion into the U.S. economy. Both nations are currently ironing out the specifics of how Japan will deploy these funds through investments, loans, and loan guarantees.
Analysts suggest that Takaichi aims to forge a lasting personal connection with Trump, mirroring Abe’s approach. However, some experts express apprehension that Japan could find itself in a precarious position if Trump successfully resolves trade disputes with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, whom he is scheduled to meet later this week in South Korea. “Her biggest trepidation might be the possibility that a Trump-Xi meeting goes too well,” warned Rapp-Hooper, a former Biden administration official. “Then Japan is faced with a conundrum of how it will manage China in a world in which U.S.-China relations appear to be warming in an unprecedented way.”