President Trump is set to begin a crucial, nearly weeklong tour across Asia, marking his first visit to the region in his second term. His itinerary includes stops in Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea, culminating in a highly anticipated meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.
During this diplomatic journey, Trump is expected to highlight a new trade agreement, claim credit for brokering peace between Thailand and Cambodia, and reinforce Washington’s influence in Southeast Asia, a region where Beijing’s power is steadily expanding.
However, many Asian governments are keen to stabilize their relationships with the United States following months of contentious tariff disputes. They remain acutely aware of how quickly Trump’s diplomatic approach can shift. These nations will be carefully balancing their ties with Washington against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China.
Daniel Kritenbrink, a partner at the Asia Group and a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, noted, “I hear real expressions of concern and unease about what the U.S. approach to the region will be over the long run, and concerns primarily for how China will respond.”
He added that these countries “will start calculating their national interest and start balancing against China in ways that don’t involve the United States.”
Here’s a closer look at what each part of the region expects from this significant visit:
Southeast Asia: A Wary Audience
Trump’s first visit to Southeast Asia since 2017 kicks off in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, this Sunday. He aims to sign a new trade agreement with Malaysia and publicly acknowledge a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia, a mediation he personally facilitated.
He will also engage with at least ten leaders from regional nations convening for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
For the United States, Southeast Asia holds immense value, not just for its market size but also for its critical strategic position as a counterbalance to China. The region also serves as a vital supply chain hub for many American companies that have relocated from China.
Yet, Trump will encounter a region growing increasingly skeptical of the United States. Many countries are still recovering from his tariff policies, which were widely perceived as indiscriminate. Most nations in Southeast Asia faced tariffs of approximately 19 to 20 percent, a significant economic setback.
Japan: A New Leader’s First Big Test
Following his engagements in Malaysia, President Trump will travel to Japan, where he is scheduled to meet with Sanae Takaichi, the country’s newly appointed leader and its first female prime minister.
Japan’s primary focus is to finalize the specifics of a trade agreement with the United States. In July, Japan was hit with a 15 percent across-the-board tariff on its exports, a concession for its commitment to invest $550 billion into the U.S. economy.
Although the two nations have clarified several points in the trade deal recently, a key sticking point remains: the precise allocation and deployment of Japan’s promised $550 billion in investments, loans, and loan guarantees.
Prime Minister Takaichi, recently elected, had initially indicated a potential for a tougher stance against Washington during her campaign. However, she has since adopted a more conciliatory tone, vowing to safeguard the existing trade agreement.
On Friday, Takaichi announced that Japan would allocate approximately 2 percent of its gross domestic output to defense spending by next spring, two years ahead of schedule. This move anticipates the Trump administration’s likely demands for a substantial increase in military expenditure.
She is also expected to voice concerns about China’s expanding military and economic presence in Asia. Takaichi will likely seek a renewed assurance from President Trump that the United States will continue to uphold its long-standing military and economic alliance with Japan, which traditionally acts as a check on China’s regional influence.
South Korea: Balancing Security and Trade
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju represents the largest international event hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung since he assumed office in June.
Much of the attention in South Korea will center on whether President Lee can resolve an ongoing tariff dispute with President Trump during the visit.
Last July, South Korea secured a preliminary deal to avoid steep tariffs on its exports by pledging a $350 billion investment package for the United States. However, detailed negotiations have stalled, leaving South Korea’s crucial auto industry vulnerable to a 25 percent tariff and at a disadvantage compared to Japanese and European competitors.
Seoul and Washington have maintained a strong alliance since the Korean War in the early 1950s. In recent years, they have strengthened their trilateral partnership with Japan to collectively counter Chinese influence. South Korea also hosts the largest U.S. military base outside the United States, a strategic asset intended by the Pentagon to deter both North Korea and China.
Despite this alliance, South Korea’s export-driven economy heavily relies on trade with China. Unlike his conservative predecessor, President Lee is keen to avoid antagonizing China. The Gyeongju meeting will therefore be a significant test of his diplomatic skills.
China: A Superpower Showdown, or Road to Détente?
On Thursday, President Trump will hold his first in-person meeting with President Xi Jinping of his second term, a discussion carrying immense implications for the global economy.
Trump is likely to face his most formidable rival yet in Xi, a leader who has consistently demonstrated a willingness to challenge Trump and to support strong rhetoric with a powerful economic tool: critical minerals.
Chinese and American trade negotiators are currently meeting this weekend to outline potential agreements for the leaders’ meeting in Gyeongju before Trump’s departure. Beijing is pushing for a reduction in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and an easing of restrictions on technology exports to China. Conversely, Trump seeks increased purchases of U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft by China.
The Chinese leader enters these discussions with substantial leverage, particularly due to China’s near-monopoly on rare earth minerals, which are indispensable for global manufacturing.
The United States, for its part, is intensifying pressure with a new investigation into China’s adherence to its 2020 trade deal commitments. Furthermore, Trump has issued threats of imposing additional 100 percent tariffs and restrictions on exports of U.S. software.
Xi’s position is bolstered by China’s significant industrial power, its firm control over crucial global supply chains, and its readiness to assert its economic might, even if it risks international condemnation.