Ivory Coast is on the brink of a pivotal presidential election this Saturday, widely anticipated to prolong the controversial tenure of long-serving President Alassane Ouattara.
At 83, President Ouattara faces strong accusations of manipulating the electoral process, allegedly using his presidential power to disqualify key opposition candidates. This comes as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term, despite having already spent 15 years in office, a period extended by constitutional changes in 2016 that controversially “reset” term limits.
The nation, a global leader in cocoa production, now confronts a stark choice: embrace political change or endorse continuity. While supporters laud President Ouattara for ushering in a decade of political stability and remarkable economic growth, detractors argue his rule has been marked by a concerning suppression of dissenting voices.
Over the past decade, Ivory Coast has indeed experienced significant progress, recovering from a devastating civil war and a violent post-election crisis in 2010. Unlike many of its Sahel neighbors grappling with widespread unrest and insurgencies, the country has largely maintained peace.
“Ivorians prioritize peace,” stated Abou Bamba, an adviser to President Ouattara. “We observe the turmoil in nations like Mali and Burkina Faso; we are determined to avoid a return to conflict.”
President Ouattara’s leadership has been synonymous with extensive infrastructure projects and an economic surge, significantly alleviating poverty. Annually, Ivorians now earn approximately $2,709 per capita, making it the second-highest income in West Africa, just behind Cape Verde. Yet, this progress is overshadowed by increasing public discontent regarding his prolonged grip on power.
Here’s what you need to know:
- Who are the opposition candidates?
- What are the issues?
- When is the vote?
Who are the opposition candidates?
The pre-election period has been marred by persistent allegations from opposition factions, claiming that the ruling party has unfairly manipulated the electoral process by disqualifying key contenders. President Ouattara’s administration, however, vehemently refutes these accusations, insisting that opposition parties continue to operate freely.
Tidjane Thiam, 63, once considered President Ouattara’s strongest competitor, was disqualified by the constitutional council due to his French citizenship. Thiam previously held prominent roles as CEO of Credit Suisse and group CEO of Prudential until 2015.
Laurent Gbagbo, 80, who governed Ivory Coast from 2000 to 2011, had aimed to participate in the election following his acquittal by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges related to the 2010-2011 post-election violence that claimed over 3,000 lives. Despite returning to Ivory Coast in 2021 after a decade in The Hague, he was barred last month by the electoral commission due to a prior conviction in a separate legal case.
With both Gbagbo and Thiam sidelined, the opposition’s field of candidates is considerably weakened, according to Beverly Ochieng, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Among the remaining figures is former first lady Simone Gbagbo, attempting to rally her ex-husband’s political base.
Jean-Louis Billon, 60, a former minister and one of the nation’s wealthiest individuals, was overlooked by the primary opposition party in favor of Thiam. Billon now hopes to secure the support of Thiam’s former backers.
What are the issues?
While many observers describe this election as less volatile than previous ones, sporadic outbreaks of unrest have occurred. Earlier this year, significant anti-government protests saw over 200 opposition supporters arrested in Abidjan, the commercial capital. Tragic incidents included the deaths of a protester and a police officer, and the electoral commission’s offices were reportedly set ablaze.
Persistent high youth unemployment and unresolved resentments from the post-election crisis that initially brought President Ouattara to power have also fueled these demonstrations.
The electoral period has also seen a rise in sophisticated disinformation campaigns, which experts note mirror those seen before recent coups in the Sahel region. For instance, a viral post in May falsely claimed a coup had taken place in Ivory Coast, while other narratives painted President Ouattara as a mere puppet of France, the former colonial power.
“Given Ouattara’s strong association with Côte d’Ivoire’s post-war reconstruction and economic boom, his re-election is highly probable based on these achievements,” stated Ms. Ochieng. “However, this does not erase legitimate questions surrounding his overall legitimacy.”
When is the vote?
Polling stations are set to open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. Provisional results from the electoral commission are officially due within five days, though historically, they often emerge within 48 to 72 hours. The Constitutional Court will then declare the final, certified results within two weeks.
Should no candidate secure more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held between the two leading contenders. Approximately 8.7 million Ivorian citizens are registered and eligible to cast their ballots.
However, political analysts widely predict that a runoff will be unnecessary, anticipating a direct victory for President Ouattara.