For the past two months, the United States has been amassing a significant military presence in the Caribbean, deploying warships, fighter jets, bombers, marines, drones, and spy planes – the largest such deployment in decades. Long-range B-52 bombers have conducted “bomber attack demonstrations” off Venezuela’s coast, while the CIA has been authorized for covert operations in the region. The U.S. military has also conducted strikes on small vessels, alleging they were carrying “narcotics” and “narco-terrorists,” though details and evidence remain scarce. These actions have sparked condemnation and legal questions within the region, with many experts suggesting the drug war narrative is a front for a campaign aimed at regime change.
Dr. Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow at Chatham House, believes the military buildup is a strategic display of strength designed to intimidate Venezuela’s military and Maduro’s inner circle, potentially encouraging a move against the president. BBC Verify has been tracking the movements of U.S. military assets in the region using publicly available data, satellite imagery, and social media, identifying at least 10 U.S. military ships, including destroyers and amphibious assault vessels, as of October 23rd.
The U.S. administration, notably Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has openly expressed a desire to see Maduro removed from power. While Trump himself campaigned against foreign intervention in 2016, his administration has not recognized Maduro’s presidency since the disputed 2024 election, closing the U.S. embassy in Caracas in 2019. The U.S. has also offered a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, though this has not resulted in any defections, as the value offered may be less significant than the potential gains from corruption within Venezuela’s oil-rich economy.
While the U.S. claims the military actions are primarily a war on drug trafficking, particularly citing fentanyl, experts note that fentanyl is predominantly produced in Mexico, not South America. Dr. Sabatini suggests this framing co-opts the opposition’s narrative of Venezuela being a “criminal regime.” Venezuela is not a major cocaine producer, with Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia being primary sources. Furthermore, the initial strikes occurred in the Caribbean, not the primary sea route for drug trafficking, which is the Pacific.
The U.S. military presence includes advanced assets like F-35 fighter jets and MQ-9 Reaper drones, capable of reconnaissance and strikes. The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, further underscores the scale of the operation. While these assets could support various missions, their presence alone doesn’t confirm specific planned activities, as noted by analysts. The U.S. has also authorized the CIA for covert operations, which could range from information campaigns to sabotage or even direct action against the regime, potentially targeting individuals involved in illicit activities. The ultimate goal and duration of this significant military deployment remain key questions, with its effectiveness in forcing defections or achieving regime change yet to be seen.