A center-left nationalist candidate delivered a crushing defeat to the governing Labour Party and Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform U.K. in a Welsh Parliament special election on Thursday. This keenly observed race is now seen as a potential predictor of major political upheaval in broader elections slated for next year.
The nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, advocating for Welsh independence, had been neck-and-neck with Reform U.K. in pre-election surveys for the Caerphilly seat. This constituency, a Labour stronghold for generations, became a battleground amidst plummeting approval ratings for both Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government and the leading opposition, the center-right Conservatives.
Lindsay Whittle, representing Plaid Cymru, clinched the victory with a commanding 47 percent of the vote. Reform U.K.’s candidate secured second place with 36 percent, even after a high-visibility campaign featuring Nigel Farage, who had predicted this race could herald “spectacular” future wins for his party across Wales. Labour’s candidate trailed significantly, coming in third with a mere 11 percent.
This special election serves as another harsh reality check for Prime Minister Starmer’s Labour administration. Despite their landslide victory in July 2024, the party has consistently faced surprisingly low approval ratings, a stark contrast to Reform U.K.’s rapid rise in public opinion polls.
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For over a century, Labour has been the undisputed political powerhouse in Wales, holding the Caerphilly Welsh Parliament seat since its inception in 1999 and consistently winning every British general election in the area. However, this election presented a formidable challenge, with opposition parties launching relentless attacks on Labour’s track record at both local and national levels.
As Reform U.K. consolidates its position on the right, other parties like the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are actively seeking to gain ground in the center and left. In Wales, Plaid Cymru has strategically positioned itself as the party offering a “fresh start” for the region.
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In Caerphilly, Plaid Cymru actively campaigned on a platform to “stop Reform,” with campaign materials boldly declaring “Labour can’t win!” and highlighting the close pre-election poll numbers between the two contending parties.
Historically, Wales, especially the South Wales Valleys region north of Cardiff, has been a steadfast Labour stronghold. The post-World War II decline of coal mining and recent struggles in heavy industry deeply impacted the area’s prosperity. During these times, Labour garnered strong support as the party representing workers, backed by powerful trade unions.
Yet, Labour’s longstanding local political dominance became a double-edged sword for its candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, during the Caerphilly campaign. He faced accusations of hypocrisy for publicly opposing library closures initiated by the Labour-controlled local council, despite having previously supported those plans.
Opposition parties shrewdly capitalized on the campaign to launch broad attacks against both the local and national governments, focusing heavily on issues such as the economy and immigration.
Nigel Farage himself made two visits to Caerphilly in the lead-up to the election, hosting a press conference on September 12th. There, he vowed his party would “throw everything” into the campaign, asserting that a Reform U.K. victory would be a sensational preview of “something quite spectacular” in the broader Welsh Parliament elections slated for next year.
Surprisingly, the party’s public support seemed largely unaffected by recent revelations that its former Welsh leader, Nathan Gill, had been implicated in a bribery scandal, accepting money to make pro-Russian statements within the European Parliament.
This isn’t Reform U.K.’s first success story. They previously secured a special election victory for a U.K. Parliament seat in northwestern England in May and made substantial inroads in the English local elections that same month. Political analysts believe these results signal the dawn of a new era of multiparty politics across Britain.
The special election held on Thursday was necessitated by the passing of Hefin Wyn David, the Labour politician who had represented Caerphilly in the Welsh Parliament since his initial election in 2016.
The Welsh Parliament, known as the Senedd, was established in 1999. Its creation was a key part of the United Kingdom’s devolution program, initiated by Tony Blair’s Labour government, which also led to the formation of the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Functioning independently from the Westminster Parliament, the Senedd holds legislative power over uniquely Welsh affairs, including health, education, housing, transport, and agriculture. Thursday’s special election was solely for the Caerphilly seat, one of 60 within the current Parliament. Looking ahead, the Senedd is set to expand to 96 seats following elections next May.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, enthusiastically declared the Caerphilly outcome a “historic” triumph. He proclaimed it the start of a political “reset” in Wales, predicting a future where the long-standing dominance of Labour and the Conservatives would wane.
“This is a global phenomenon, and it’s happening right here in Wales – the old guard is gone,” he stated. He suggested that Reform U.K. and Plaid Cymru would present Welsh voters with a stark “choice of two different futures.”