While President Trump’s stance on Vladimir Putin and Russia remains unpredictable, recent developments clearly signal that Europe’s consistent support for Ukraine is yielding tangible results, at least for now.
President Trump’s decision to impose sanctions on Russia’s major oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, is expected to substantially impact Russia’s revenue over time. Europe swiftly followed suit, implementing new sanctions on Thursday and pledging to cover Ukraine’s financial and military needs for the next two years.
A groundbreaking, albeit contentious, plan to leverage frozen Russian assets for a massive interest-free loan to Ukraine, estimated at 140 billion euros ($163 billion), was temporarily halted due to liability concerns from Belgium. However, the European bloc remains committed to finding a resolution, as this loan is crucial to fulfilling their funding promise without overburdening already strained national budgets.
Even with secured funding, questions persist regarding whether these efforts will be sufficient to sustain Ukraine’s challenging fight against Russia. Analysts suggest these measures are unlikely to compel Mr. Putin to cease the war or agree to the swift cease-fire demanded by Mr. Trump. Nevertheless, these sanctions firmly underscore Europe’s dedication to Ukraine’s resilience against Russia, whether or not Mr. Trump remains a committed partner.
European leaders can take satisfaction in knowing their repeated appeals to Mr. Trump on behalf of Ukraine have at last resulted in some American pressure on Moscow. They unequivocally state their commitment to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes to secure its independence, recognizing that any true end to the conflict will ultimately require significant American influence on Russia.
Following Mr. Trump’s choice to halt new funding for Ukraine, European nations are grappling with the challenge of securing the necessary finances to uphold their promises, especially given their already strained national budgets.
The proposed loan, a complex legal maneuver, aims to utilize billions in frozen Russian assets held in Europe without outright seizure. This would provide Ukraine with a 140-billion euro loan ($163 billion), interest-free, repayable only if Russia eventually provides war reparations. However, Belgium, where most of these assets are located, is pushing for guarantees against liability and a shared risk model across the bloc. Significant details still need to be finalized to satisfy Belgium and hopefully secure participation from other G7 nations. A revised plan is anticipated for the next E.U. summit in December.
Despite these hurdles, António Costa, president of the European Council, confidently announced on Thursday night that the bloc is dedicated to meeting Ukraine’s urgent financial needs for the next two years, including over $150 billion for military and defense efforts.
Concurrently, the European Union implemented additional sanctions targeting Russia’s energy-reliant economy, echoing the new American measures. The bloc moved forward with a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas purchases, now set to commence in 2027. Additionally, 117 more vessels from Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, previously used to circumvent sanctions, were added to the blacklist.
While the Europeans also sanctioned Rosneft, they notably excluded Lukoil, which continues to supply relatively small amounts of inexpensive oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Jean-Dominique Giuliani, a French analyst and chairman of the Robert Schuman Foundation, observed that Europe has provided more aid to Ukraine than the United States and has largely prevailed in the argument for continued support. He emphasized that Europe’s policy objectives remain unchanged despite Mr. Trump’s wavering, including an immediate cease-fire, no territorial concessions by Ukraine, reparations, and the prosecution of war criminals.
Mr. Giuliani asserted that no agreement can be reached at Ukraine’s expense or without European involvement, given their extensive sanctions against Russia and their custodianship of most Russian assets abroad.
Further demonstrating European resolve, countries forming the “coalition of the willing” convened in London on Friday to discuss additional military aid for Kyiv.
Nonetheless, Europeans are actively working to keep Mr. Trump engaged, or at least less susceptible to Mr. Putin’s persuasive tactics.
Mr. Trump’s opinions often fluctuate, as he alternates between expressing frustration with both President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Mr. Putin. Even as he announced new sanctions on Wednesday, he voiced optimism that they could be quickly lifted, consistent with his broader foreign policy aspirations for a relationship with Russia.
To this end, national security advisers from key European nations—including Britain, France, Finland, Germany, and Italy, alongside the European Commission—have collaborated with Ukraine to craft a 12-point peace plan. This plan reintroduces existing concepts but is strategically designed to demonstrate Europe’s leadership on Ukraine to Mr. Trump and garner his support, partly drawing inspiration from the Gaza cease-fire for which he claimed credit.
The plan includes a “peace board” to be chaired by Mr. Trump, mirroring the Gaza agreement’s structure, to oversee any deal. This board would supervise a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, along with the exchange of prisoners and children—a cause championed by former first lady Melania Trump. Ukraine would also receive security guarantees, a concept European officials have long discussed but not fully defined, increased aid, and an accelerated path to European Union membership.
In exchange, Russia would see a gradual lifting of sanctions, but its frozen assets would be allocated as reparations for Ukraine. Consequently, this plan offers little that is genuinely new or likely to convince Mr. Putin to halt a war he believes he is winning.
Furthermore, Washington’s renewed authorization for Ukraine to deploy longer-range British and French cruise missiles against Russian targets is unlikely to sway Mr. Putin. Because these missiles incorporate American technology and satellite intelligence, U.S. permission was required for their use against Russia. Following a prolonged restriction, one such missile was reportedly fired on Tuesday at a Russian explosives plant in Bryansk, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security posited that Mr. Putin’s maneuvering, combined with Europe’s unwavering stance, has finally pushed Mr. Trump to inflict some real economic pressure on Russia.
“Putin will not be moved toward peace by charm, rapport, or skillful deal making,” Mr. Fontaine shared on social media. “The President may now understand that — and that supporting Ukraine and pressuring Russia is a better path toward ending this terrible war.” He did, however, acknowledge Mr. Trump’s tendency to reverse his positions.
Skepticism naturally remains as to whether Mr. Putin will respond favorably to these sanctions or even to direct strikes within Russia. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a nonpartisan security policy think tank in Washington, questioned the efficacy on social media: “This is Biden’s strategy redux — this failed for 3 years. Why would it work now?”