Myanmar’s military has recently recaptured the town of Kyaukme, a crucial point on the trade route connecting China to the rest of the country. This town, which had been held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) for several months following intense fighting, signifies a turning point in the ongoing civil war. The military’s swift reassertion of control, achieved in just three weeks, highlights a renewed effectiveness fueled by new technology and strategic focus.
Kyaukme bore the brunt of this conflict, with large sections of the town being destroyed by daily air strikes and artillery fire while it was under insurgent control. The local population was forced to flee, but many are now beginning to return following the military’s recapture.
The junta’s current resurgence is partly attributed to a forced conscription drive, which has swelled its ranks with new, albeit inexperienced, soldiers. More significantly, the military has adopted and deployed thousands of drones, acquired from China, and trained its forces in their effective use. This technological advantage, coupled with a more focused strategy concentrating forces on strategically vital areas like trade routes and potential election sites, has allowed the military to regain lost ground.
The opposition, composed of numerous, often poorly-equipped People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed groups, struggles with disunity and a lack of centralized leadership. This internal fragmentation, combined with the junta’s improved capabilities and China’s crucial support, has shifted the military balance. China’s diplomatic and financial backing for the junta’s election plans, despite international condemnation, underscores its strategic interest in stability and its opposition to state collapse in Myanmar.
While the junta has regained control of key towns and is advancing in several regions, pockets of strong resistance persist. However, the overall trend indicates a resurgence of military control, driven by technological adoption and strategic alliances, which may dictate the future course of Myanmar’s protracted conflict.
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