Last week’s delicate cease-fire in Gaza hinges on two critical factors: Hamas militants disarming and an international troop deployment maintaining peace as Israeli forces withdraw from the area.
However, nations considered for this peacekeeping mission are hesitant to commit their soldiers, fearing direct confrontation with a still-armed Hamas. This concern has been voiced by diplomats and others close to the ongoing discussions.
Former President Trump’s 20-point peace initiative, which brought about the recent Israel-Hamas cease-fire and a prisoner-hostage exchange, called for an immediate “temporary International Stabilization Force” in Gaza. This international body was intended to secure evacuated Israeli zones, stop weapons trafficking, coordinate aid, and train a Palestinian police force.
Establishing and deploying such an international force is pivotal. Its success could dictate whether the current cease-fire progresses into a permanent accord and if both Israelis and Palestinians can finally achieve lasting peace.
Diplomats and various national officials indicate that progress on forming this force is stalled. The primary obstacle remains the lack of clarity surrounding the mission’s objectives.
Two diplomats, privy to recent talks, report that representatives from several prospective nations have privately stated they will not dispatch troops without a clearer understanding of the force’s responsibilities upon entering Gaza.
Image: Two men dressed in black hoods and carrying rifles standing near a group of people waiting behind a barrier.
A major concern is that their troops should not be tasked with fighting Hamas militants, many of whom are still heavily armed, essentially acting on Israel’s behalf. For numerous countries, this possibility alone is enough to withdraw their commitment, officials explained.
Furthermore, some nations have privately expressed a reluctance to station their troops in Gaza’s urban centers, citing the significant dangers from Hamas and its extensive tunnel systems, according to individuals close to the discussions.
All sources requested anonymity and asked that the hesitant nations remain unnamed, given the sensitive nature of these discussions.
Recent violence in Gaza, including a Palestinian militant attack that killed two Israeli soldiers and Israel’s retaliatory bombardment resulting in 45 Palestinian deaths, only amplifies these anxieties. Gaza health officials typically do not differentiate between civilian and combatant casualties in their reports.
During the Biden administration, initial attempts were made to assemble a force with personnel from Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Italy. This information comes from Jamie Rubin, a former adviser to then-Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, who contributed to developing a post-war governance plan for Gaza.
More recently, talks have involved Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, as confirmed by two diplomats.
Negotiators of the current cease-fire are keen to rapidly deploy an international force to stabilize Gaza. Their aim is to prevent Hamas from solidifying its control in the approximately half of Gaza that Israel has already relinquished.
Image: A man pushing a bicycle along a street lined with piles of rubble and heavily damaged buildings.
A statement from the Turkish government indicated that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed Turkey’s willingness to join a cease-fire oversight task force. It remains uncertain if he was specifically referring to the stabilization force. Israel’s leadership may view Turkey’s potential leading role in Gaza with skepticism, considering President Erdogan’s consistent condemnation of Israel over the past two years.
Last month, at the United Nations, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto declared his nation’s readiness to deploy over 20,000 troops to “help secure peace in Gaza” and other conflict zones.
This ambiguity regarding Gaza’s security leadership could leave parts of the enclave vulnerable to Hamas for an extended period. Diplomats face significant contradictions as they try to advance regional plans.
Diplomats suggest that without this international force and a functioning government, Hamas could emerge as Gaza’s sole governing body. Furthermore, Israel’s military is unlikely to proceed with further withdrawals – a key incentive in the Trump plan for Hamas’s cooperation – until an international presence is firmly established.
Ultimately, much hinges on Hamas’s willingness to disarm, a step its leadership has so far resisted.
Last week, during an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes, Jared Kushner, former President Trump’s son-in-law and a key architect of the cease-fire, addressed Hamas’s disarmament: “For that to happen, we must establish an international stabilization force, and then that force must create a local Palestinian government.”
Analysts believe Arab nations would likely avoid deploying troops to Gaza if it meant engaging armed Hamas militants or if their involvement wasn’t tied to a clear path toward Palestinian statehood, a concept Israel’s government currently opposes.
Ghaith al-Omari, a Palestinian affairs expert and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, emphasized the political risks for Arab countries. “Getting militarily involved in Gaza is politically risky for Arab countries,” he stated. “They don’t want to be perceived as doing Israel’s dirty work. Therefore, they require a Palestinian invitation and a U.N. Security Council mandate.”
He further added that these nations are unwilling to contribute solely to securing a cease-fire if it doesn’t ultimately lead to the end of the Israeli occupation.
Image: A soldier in uniform climbing out of a military vehicle parked near military tanks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that if Hamas militants refuse to disarm voluntarily, Israel is prepared to enforce disarmament “the hard way.”
The concept of an international peacekeeping force in Gaza has been a recurring topic since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent two-year military campaign. Numerous proposals, including those from France and the United States, have highlighted the urgent need for such a force once direct hostilities between Israel and Hamas cease.
Discussions are also exploring the creation of a distinct Palestinian police force to operate within Gaza’s urban areas.
While the Palestinian Authority, with its substantial police presence in the West Bank, appears a logical choice, Israel strongly opposes its involvement. Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently aimed to prevent a single Palestinian entity from controlling both the West Bank and Gaza, and his cabinet’s terms for ending the war explicitly excluded Palestinian Authority governance in Gaza.
Image: Three men wearing camouflage uniforms and carrying rifles talking to one another on an urban street.
Even Palestinian officials acknowledge that the Authority’s return to control in Gaza, after being ousted by Hamas in a 2007 civil war, would necessitate meticulous planning and additional training for its security personnel.
Mohammad Mustafa, the Palestinian Authority’s prime minister, announced on Thursday that Egypt and Jordan are currently training some of the Authority’s officers, and that the Authority plans to “gradually operate” in Gaza post-conflict.
However, he offered no specific timeline when asked about the timing of these developments.
At a Ramallah news conference, Mr. Mustafa admitted, “War did stop but a lot of arrangements still are not in place… on governance, on security, on logistics.”