Behind the tightly sealed doors of Beijing this week, China’s most senior officials are gathering to chart the nation’s strategic course in an increasingly unpredictable world. Yet, two monumental and unspoken questions dominate the future of this global power: How much longer will Xi Jinping remain in power, and critically, who will step into his shoes once he eventually departs the political stage?
Having presided over China for an impressive 13 years, President Xi Jinping has consolidated a level of authority unparalleled since the era of Mao Zedong. Despite his advanced age, he shows no inclination to relinquish power. However, this extended leadership, if handled poorly, could inadvertently trigger future political instability. The fundamental issue is that he has not publicly identified a successor, nor has he offered any timeline for doing so.
Each passing year he remains in office only amplifies concerns. Should his health unexpectedly falter, the identity of a potential interim leader, and whether that individual would maintain or soften Mr. Xi’s firm policies, remains entirely opaque.
President Xi finds himself caught in a classic autocratic bind: officially naming a successor could create a competing power base and undermine his current authority. Yet, neglecting to prepare a leader-in-waiting could ultimately damage his legacy and fracture China’s political establishment. Moreover, at 72, any viable successor would likely be considerably younger, necessitating a search among officials who still need to earn his complete trust and demonstrate their capabilities.
Should Mr. Xi ever decide to choose a successor, unwavering loyalty to him and his vision will undoubtedly be the top criterion. He has previously stated that the Soviet Union’s downfall was hastened by its selection of reformer Mikhail Gorbachev. This past Friday, Mr. Xi underscored his zero-tolerance policy for dissent by announcing the expulsion of nine high-ranking military officers, now facing corruption and abuse of power charges.
As Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, observes, “Xi almost surely realizes the importance of succession, but he also realizes that it’s incredibly difficult to signal a successor without undermining his own power.” Thomas adds, “The immediate political and economic crises that he faces could end up continually outweighing the priority of getting around to executing a succession plan.”
In China, any discussion about Mr. Xi’s future is intensely sensitive and heavily censored. Only a select few within the inner circle are likely aware of his true intentions regarding succession. International diplomats, analysts, and investors are closely watching the ongoing four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, where hundreds of senior officials have convened, for any hint of future leadership changes.
This high-level meeting, traditionally conducted in strict privacy at Beijing’s specialized Jingxi Hotel, is anticipated to rubber-stamp China’s five-year development blueprint. A central focus will be Mr. Xi’s ambition to establish China as a global leader in technological innovation and advanced manufacturing. Both he and his administration remain steadfast in their belief that their strategy will overcome any challenges posed by trade measures, such as those implemented by President Trump.
In a report last month outlining the proposed plan, senior Chinese lawmakers emphasized, “At the heart of strategic rivalry among the great powers is a contest for comprehensive strength.” They further asserted, “Only by vigorously upgrading our own economic power, scientific and technological strength, and overall national power can we win the strategic initiative.”
While this week’s gathering theoretically presents an opportunity for Mr. Xi to showcase China’s future leaders by promoting younger officials, many experts predict he will postpone any significant decisions. They anticipate he might wait until after his probable fourth five-year term commences in 2027, or even longer.
Jonathan Czin, a Chinese politics researcher at the Brookings Institution, who has analyzed Mr. Xi’s potential succession scenarios and the Central Committee meetings, notes, “Then I think it has to start looming larger, if not in his own mind, then in the people around him.” He adds, “Even if the people in his immediate orbit don’t start jockeying for position for themselves, they’re going to be jockeying on behalf of their own protégés.”
Mr. Xi himself has a deep understanding of how succession battles can destabilize the Communist Party. He observed his own father, a high-ranking official, being purged by Mao. During his time as a local official amidst the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations, he witnessed how leadership rifts could plunge China into turmoil. This culminated in Deng Xiaoping’s removal of then-General Secretary Zhao Ziyang and the subsequent installation of Jiang Zemin as the new designated successor.
Christopher K. Johnson, president of China Strategies Group and a former U.S. intelligence official specializing in China, emphasizes that “Especially as someone who spends so much time studying the lessons of China’s dynastic cycles and the history of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Xi knows that the succession is a major issue he must think through.”
Currently, Mr. Xi appears resolute in his conviction that China’s path to global leadership is inextricably linked to his ongoing guidance. He famously disregarded the precedent of a graceful retirement, as practiced by his predecessor Hu Jintao, and in 2018 eliminated the presidential two-term limit. This move effectively allows him to remain as the supreme leader of the party, state, and military for an indefinite period.
However, with each additional year he retains power, the challenge of identifying a successor who is simultaneously youthful enough for a long reign and experienced enough to wield authority effectively in his formidable shadow becomes increasingly complex.
The Politburo Standing Committee, the powerful seven-member body at the very top of China’s political hierarchy, has been filled by Mr. Xi with his long-standing loyalists. These individuals, mostly in their 60s or older, are widely considered too senior in age to be credible long-term successors. It’s noteworthy that Mr. Xi himself was 54 when he joined the Standing Committee in 2007, a clear signal at the time that he was being groomed for ultimate leadership.
According to Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California San Diego specializing in Chinese elite politics, even officials anticipated for central leadership roles at the 2027 Communist Party congress are likely too old to realistically succeed Mr. Xi.
Given the high probability of Mr. Xi’s extended tenure, perhaps for another term or even beyond, a potential successor might emerge from the generation born in the 1970s. These individuals are currently likely serving in provincial governments or central agencies. Professor Wang Hsin-hsien of National Chengchi University in Taiwan, a scholar of the Communist Party, notes that the party has indeed begun promoting younger officials fitting this description.
However, Mr. Xi also expresses apprehension about officials who lack extensive experience with adversity or high-stakes responsibility. He has repeatedly cautioned that even minor deficiencies in leadership can escalate into grave dangers during critical times, famously stating that “A small crack can become a massive collapse” in a dam wall.”
Professor Wang explains, “Xi is highly distrustful of others, especially those officials who have only an indirect relationship with him.” He suggests that “As he grows older and has fewer connections to the generation of his possible successors, this factor will become more important.”
In the coming years, experts anticipate a more dynamic and less predictable upper echelon within the party, as Mr. Xi meticulously evaluates and potentially dismisses various candidates for leadership. Meanwhile, behind the curtain of power, those within his inner circle are likely to engage in increasingly fierce competition for influence and their own political longevity.
Professor Shih concludes, “This will make the succession process more fragmented, because he can’t possibly just have one designated successor. It has to be a collective to choose from, and that probably also means they will have low-grade power struggles with each other.”