Every year, the stunning beaches and clear turquoise waters of the Cook Islands draw in countless tourists. This vital tourism industry is the lifeblood of this small nation, made up of 15 beautiful islands and atolls, where the local building code famously dictates that no structure can rise taller than a coconut tree.
For generations, the Cook Islands and New Zealand have shared a deep connection, rooted in their past as former colonial ruler and territory. However, in recent months, a noticeable chill has settled between these two long-standing allies.
The tension stems from a comprehensive partnership agreement signed earlier this year between the Cook Islands and China. New Zealand views this deal as a worrying sign of China’s expanding reach in the region, sparking considerable alarm.
In response, New Zealand has suspended millions of dollars in aid, creating a significant gap in the Cook Islands’ national budget. Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands has defiantly stated that if New Zealand won’t help with his country’s infrastructure needs, he will ‘go somewhere else.’ This situation has led to accusations that New Zealand is using aid as a bargaining chip, and has even prompted rare public protests in Rarotonga, the main island, from residents worried about damaging their vital relationship with New Zealand.
Despite a face-to-face meeting between the leaders of both nations at a recent regional forum, there’s still no clear path to resolving the dispute.
New Zealand’s foreign minister, Winston Peters, expressed his concerns last month, calling the new agreement with China ‘a serious change’ about which New Zealand had been kept in the dark.
New Zealand contends that the Cook Islands was obligated to consult with it before finalizing the deal, and insists that no further aid will be provided until steps are taken to ‘repair the relationship and restore trust.’ However, Prime Minister Brown countered by noting that New Zealand itself signed a major partnership with China in 2014, without consulting the Cook Islands, a deal that brought billions of dollars in economic benefits.
Yet, over the past decade, New Zealand’s perception of China’s intentions in its immediate vicinity has shifted, becoming increasingly cautious. They’ve witnessed China employing punitive trade measures against Australia’s economy, conducting intercontinental ballistic missile tests in the Pacific, and deploying a naval task force for live-fire drills in the waters separating Australia and New Zealand.
Mr. Peters remarked that China’s agreement with the Cook Islands aligns with a ‘certain recent developmental pattern’ indicative of Beijing’s broader regional ambitions.
New Zealand officials indicated that diplomats from both countries are currently ‘working their way through’ the specifics of the China agreement to address areas of concern.
The suspended funds, totaling 18.2 million New Zealand dollars (approximately $11 million U.S.), were designated for critical sectors like health, education, and tourism. Separately, $3 million in aid for cybersecurity is reportedly still being disbursed, according to New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Analysts characterize New Zealand’s decision to pause aid as an extraordinary and impactful move, contrasting sharply with Australia’s approach, which has seen a significant increase in its aid spending across the region.
Since gaining self-governance in 1965, the Cook Islands has remained dependent on New Zealand for defense. Cook Islanders hold New Zealand passports, and a vast majority — almost 85,000 — reside in New Zealand. The foundational aspects of their relationship are now being tested as China solidifies its footprint in the Pacific.
In 2022, China finalized a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, another small Pacific nation. This pact intensified worries that Beijing aimed to establish a military presence in the area. Both Chinese and Cook Islands officials maintain that their new agreement explicitly excludes security or military provisions.
New Zealand’s intelligence chief, in a public address earlier this year, cautioned that China’s strategy in penetrating the Pacific involves ‘linking economic and security cooperation to create competing regional architectures.’ The Chinese embassy in Wellington dismissed these remarks as disinformation, asserting that the Cook Islands agreement carries no ‘secret agenda.’
David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, highlighted that New Zealand’s concerns clearly stem from Beijing’s signals of heightened military ambitions in the region.
“In a different strategic context, such partnerships might have been entirely acceptable,” he observed. “However, the strategic landscape has undeniably changed.”
Beyond geopolitical concerns, the Cook Islands has also become a focal point in the burgeoning competition over seabed mining. The agreement with China included commitments to collaborate on exploring deep-sea minerals. Just last month, the United States also struck its own deal with the Cook Islands concerning seabed mining rights.
Rashneel Kumar, editor of Cook Island News, the publication that first reported New Zealand’s aid suspension, explained that his country, like many other small Pacific island nations facing developmental hurdles and climate change threats, must seek support from all available sources. Across Avarua, the capital, visible signs of China’s assistance are abundant: the courthouse, police headquarters, and national stadium were all constructed by China.
“There’s a clear sentiment of gratitude for China’s help in certain areas,” Kumar stated. “But there’s also a general understanding that careful consideration is needed when choosing partners.”