The possibility of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Budapest is on the horizon, but not without its challenges. If this summit goes ahead within the next couple of weeks, Putin will need to navigate some significant hurdles, particularly concerning international airspace regulations.
When Putin recently traveled to Alaska for a summit, the US granted special permission for his aircraft, a specially modified Ilyushin Il-96 known as the “Flying Kremlin.” This aircraft is equipped with advanced defense systems. However, Russian planes are generally banned from both US and EU airspace. This means that for Putin to fly to Budapest over any EU member state, he would require explicit dispensation.
While such permissions are possible, Hungary’s landlocked location presents a unique challenge for the Russian leader, who seldom travels abroad and hasn’t visited the EU in years. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, acknowledged the uncertainty but confirmed the willingness of both presidents to meet. He stated, “For now, of course, it’s not clear… What we do have is the willingness of the presidents to hold such a meeting.”
The complexities are amplified by recent events. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU froze the assets of both President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Furthermore, a sweeping ban was imposed on all Russian aircraft transiting through the airspace of all 27 EU member states. Many of these nations, including Hungary and its neighbors, are also NATO members.
Adding to these considerations, the International Criminal Court has accused Putin of war crimes, specifically the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Hungary, however, is reportedly in the process of withdrawing from the ICC, suggesting they might be able to manage these complications. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has assured that arrangements will be made for Putin’s entry and successful talks in Hungary.
The primary obstacle remains the flight path from Moscow to Budapest. Direct travel via Air Serbia to Belgrade and then by train to Hungary is a possibility, but it’s unlikely Putin would forgo the security and familiarity of his presidential aircraft. Utilizing the “Flying Kremlin” would necessitate navigating EU airspace and obtaining special permission to bypass the existing ban on Russian planes.
A European Commission spokeswoman indicated that member states can grant individual derogations for such cases. NATO has also deferred the issue to national authorities, and given Trump’s involvement, some level of acquiescence might be expected.
A glance at the map reveals that Putin might need to take a more circuitous route, avoiding Ukraine and potentially Poland due to strained relations between Warsaw and Moscow. A more direct path could involve flying over the eastern Black Sea, Turkey, Bulgaria, and then either Serbia or Romania into Hungary. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić maintains good relations with Putin, and Air Serbia operates direct flights to Moscow that traverse EU airspace. Serbia’s non-EU status makes this a potentially viable option.
Alternatively, to ensure maximum safety, Putin could opt for a longer route via Turkey, skirting the southern coast of Greece, and then proceeding through Montenegrin airspace before entering Serbian airspace.
Budapest’s suitability as a venue seems particularly advantageous for Viktor Orbán, who has cultivated strong relationships with both Putin and Trump. Hosting such a high-profile summit could also benefit Orbán politically, especially as he faces upcoming elections. He has publicly expressed his intention to exclude the EU from this peace process, emphasizing Hungary’s independent stance on the matter.