Speculation is mounting about a possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Budapest within the next two weeks. However, for such a summit to take place, Putin would need to overcome several diplomatic and logistical hurdles, chief among them being air travel.
When Putin previously traveled to Alaska for a summit, the United States granted special permission for his modified Ilyushin Il-96 aircraft, nicknamed the ‘Flying Kremlin,’ to fly through US airspace. This plane, equipped with extensive defense systems, is crucial for his security.
Russian aircraft are currently banned from both US and EU airspace. If Putin intends to fly to Budapest, he would require special dispensation to traverse any EU member state’s airspace. While this is achievable, Hungary’s landlocked location presents a challenge for a Russian leader who rarely travels abroad and has not visited the EU in years.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the willingness of both presidents to meet, but noted that the specifics are still unclear. The EU, having previously frozen the assets of Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has imposed a blanket ban on Russian aircraft entering the airspace of its 27 member states. Hungary and its neighbors are also NATO members.
Adding to the complexities, Putin faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes related to the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children. Despite these complications, Hungary believes that arrangements can be made, particularly as the country is reportedly considering withdrawing from the ICC. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has assured that Putin will be able to enter Hungary for successful talks and return home.
The European Commission has indicated that while member states can individually grant derogations from the flight ban, this would be a national decision. NATO has also deferred the matter to the relevant national authorities. Given Donald Trump’s involvement, there’s a possibility that these permissions might be granted.
Logistically, a direct flight path for Putin would likely involve avoiding Ukrainian airspace and possibly Poland due to strained relations. A route through the Black Sea, Turkey, and then Bulgaria or Romania, potentially entering Hungary via Serbia, appears more probable. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić maintains good relations with Putin, and Air Serbia operates flights over EU airspace. However, the ultimate decision rests with Bulgaria or Romania to grant consent and escort the aircraft.
For an even safer journey, Putin might consider a longer route via Turkey, skirting Greece’s southern coast, and then passing through Montenegrin and Serbian airspace. The choice of route will be critical for ensuring his security and adhering to international regulations.
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