Just last year, María Corina Machado, a leading figure in Venezuela’s opposition, was forced into hiding. The country’s autocratic leader had blatantly stolen a presidential election that her movement had clearly won.
Fast forward to today, and Ms. Machado has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Simultaneously, U.S. warships are present near the Venezuelan coast, and the United States has publicly branded President Nicolás Maduro a “narco-terrorist” and a fugitive from American law.
While the Nobel Prize has undoubtedly energized Ms. Machado’s supporters, it has also brought into sharp focus the immense challenges she faces. She must navigate the intense desire for political change among Venezuelans, all while her unyielding, hard-line strategies come under increasing public scrutiny.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee lauded Ms. Machado’s dedication to a ‘peaceful transition’ to democracy. However, her tactics to unseat Mr. Maduro have included advocating for military insurrections and giving unwavering support to former President Trump’s military actions against alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean.
“One cannot negotiate with a criminal narco-terrorist regime from a position of weakness,” Ms. Machado declared in a recent interview, referencing the military pressure applied by former President Trump. She continued, “The true path to peace requires liberty, and liberty, in turn, demands strength.”
The legitimacy of Ms. Machado’s willingness to endorse violent actions for democratic change has sparked heated online discussions both within Venezuela and among its global diaspora.
Her supporters argue that both her overwhelming electoral success last year and the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize serve to validate her political approach.
“If there were any doubts about our strategy, María Corina receiving the Nobel confirms we are on the correct path,” stated Ms. Machado’s representative in a written response, opting for anonymity due to fears of government reprisal.
Evaluating the merits of this claim is challenging. Repression and intense political polarization have compelled independent Venezuelan pollsters to cease publishing their findings or making public comments.
However, confidential data obtained by The New York Times from three independent Venezuelan polling companies, based on surveys conducted in August and September, consistently reveals Ms. Machado as the most popular political figure in Venezuela.
According to two of these polls, a majority of Venezuelans either support or, at the very least, do not reject her leadership. She is widely admired for her courage and the unwavering consistency of her political convictions, which have championed personal freedoms and economic liberalism since her activism began in the early 2000s.
The pollsters explain that her consistent refusal to form political alliances, her firm control over her movement, and her outright rejection of negotiations with the government have all helped Ms. Machado steer clear of the corruption scandals and internal betrayals that plagued previous leaders of the Venezuelan opposition.
Yet, these very same traits have also made her vulnerable to accusations of sectarianism and dogmatism.
“Dialogue, mutual understanding, and negotiations are conspicuously absent from her lexicon,” remarked Vladimir Villegas, a respected Venezuelan journalist and former senior official. Villegas, who broke ties with Mr. Maduro but remains critical of Ms. Machado, emphasized that “all conflicts eventually conclude through negotiations.”
Ms. Machado’s popularity soared last summer as she orchestrated a powerful nationwide grassroots campaign, successfully challenging Mr. Maduro in a presidential election.
In response, Mr. Maduro summarily dismissed the election results, declared himself the victor, and brutally suppressed any protests against him. Subsequent polls indicate that Ms. Machado’s apparent inability to counteract Maduro’s authoritarian grip has gradually diminished public confidence in her movement.
By September, only about 20 percent of Venezuelans believed Ms. Machado could bring about political change, a stark drop from over 50 percent at the time of the July 2024 election, according to one survey. The same poll also showed a decline in her positive political perception, from approximately 60 percent in July 2024 to about 50 percent.
Meanwhile, Mr. Maduro’s approval rating remained low, at just 18 percent last month, according to the poll.
These findings were shared with The Times by the pollster on condition of anonymity, due to fears of government retaliation, and are corroborated by another independent survey reviewed by The Times.
In her bid to sustain pressure on the government, Ms. Machado sought international backing. Her most influential ally proved to be former President Trump, whose administration had officially labeled Mr. Maduro’s government a drug cartel, citing it as a threat to U.S. national security. Privately, American officials have conveyed that their overarching objective is the removal of Mr. Maduro from power.
While her alliance with Mr. Trump has provided a powerful political tool, it also links her to contentious policies that have historically divided Venezuelans and yielded little success.
Ms. Machado notably remained silent when the Trump administration revoked temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants, leading to widespread detentions and deportations. Furthermore, she publicly endorsed Mr. Trump’s controversial decision to imprison 250 Venezuelan migrants in a maximum-security facility in El Salvador without due process, alleging, with scant evidence, their involvement in a transnational gang.
She has also supported the escalation of economic sanctions against Venezuela. These measures have severely restricted the government’s access to foreign currency, but at the cost of drastically reducing the purchasing power of ordinary Venezuelans and fueling runaway inflation.
Most recently, Ms. Machado publicly endorsed the Trump administration’s deployment of warships to the Caribbean and its actions resulting in the deaths of at least 27 individuals suspected of drug smuggling off Venezuela’s coast. Critics argue that these killings lacked sufficient evidence of crimes and amounted to extrajudicial executions.
This week, the Trump administration intensified its pressure on Mr. Maduro, secretly greenlighting the C.I.A. to carry out covert operations in Venezuela, as confirmed by U.S. officials. Adding to the tension, Mr. Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States was considering military strikes within the country.
Despite these aggressive postures, independent polls indicate a strong rejection of armed intervention among most Venezuelans. A September survey revealed that only about 30 percent of respondents supported foreign military force to achieve political change.
However, some Venezuelans who do support such drastic measures feel they have been left with no other choice.
“I completely agree with the warships near the Caribbean coast, because, honestly, what other options do we have left?” questioned José, a 52-year-old Caracas resident, in a recent interview. He lamented the 25 years under the current government. For their safety, The Times has withheld his and other interviewees’ last names.
The government has skillfully leveraged the widespread fear of violence, portraying itself as the sole guardian of stability and peace, warning against the chaos and anarchy it claims would ensue if Ms. Machado took power. Privately, government officials view Ms. Machado’s endorsement of violent actions, like lethal attacks on alleged drug traffickers, as a prime opportunity to politically undermine her.
Ms. Machado’s apparent disinterest in the plight of deported Venezuelans from the United States has alienated some of their relatives back home, including individuals who previously supported her electoral campaign.
Just a year ago, the issue of migration was central to Ms. Machado’s successful electoral strategy. She pledged to reunite millions of Venezuelan families torn apart by the mass exodus, an exodus directly caused by Mr. Maduro’s catastrophic economic policies. This powerful message captivated the nation, propelling Ms. Machado from political obscurity to become the most prominent opposition figure.
“I used to be deeply moved when she spoke of Venezuelans returning home, of everyone who had to migrate, everyone who had to leave,” shared Josefina, an activist from Ms. Machado’s last electoral campaign. “But since her alignment with Trump, that message seems to have vanished. It has both annoyed and pained me.”
A notable pollster revealed that his focus groups indicated many Venezuelans have absorbed the Trump administration’s narrative that most deportees are criminals undeserving of public sympathy. (Approximately 15,000 Venezuelans were deported back to their home country by the U.S. this year.)
Broadly, the hard-line policies championed by Ms. Machado have historically proven ineffective in dislodging authoritarian regimes during other periods of Venezuela’s modern history, noted Laura Gamboa, a democracy expert at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana. She emphasized that military interventions seldom lead to lasting democracies in any nation.
“Their strategy is likely to cause the regime to dig in even deeper,” Gamboa stated in a telephone interview, referring to Ms. Machado’s political movement.
Ms. Machado has consistently argued that previous attempts by other opposition factions to negotiate with Mr. Maduro have failed, contending that such discussions have only served to fortify his government.