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Unpacking the Fragile Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire: What’s at Stake?

October 16, 2025
in World
Reading Time: 6 min

The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has managed to hold for almost a week, but the agreement’s foundation remains incredibly shaky due to a number of unresolved issues.

The primary source of tension right now revolves around a dispute over exchanging the remains of hostages taken from Israel two years ago for the bodies of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

At the heart of this problem lies deep-seated animosity and a fundamental lack of trust between the two sides, neither of whom fully believes the other is committed to upholding their end of the agreement.

Here’s a breakdown of the current situation:

The Return of Hostage Remains

By Thursday, Hamas had handed over 10 bodies to Israel, most of them belonging to former hostages. The cease-fire agreement explicitly stated that the group was supposed to immediately return all remaining bodies in Gaza, estimated to be around two dozen.

A mourner at a funeral holds up a cutout picture of Guy Iluz, an Israeli hostage who died in captivity in Gaza, with Israeli flags flying behind him.
The funeral procession for former hostage Guy Iluz in Rishon Lezion, Israel, on Wednesday. Mr. Iluz was kidnapped from the Nova music festival and died in captivity after not receiving adequate medical care for injuries he sustained on Oct. 7, 2023, the Israeli military said.Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times

The agreement acknowledged that the extensive destruction in Gaza would complicate the swift recovery of all bodies. It also outlined a process for extending deadlines and providing assistance for recovery efforts.

This process is centered on establishing a joint task force, which would include the United States and other mediators, to pool information and help locate the remaining bodies. This is according to three Israeli officials who spoke anonymously about these sensitive matters.

Hamas’s military wing stated on Wednesday night that it had delivered all recoverable remains of Israeli hostages without requiring additional specialized equipment. Hamas insists it is doing everything possible to find and return the bodies, but the process is hindered by the widespread destruction in Gaza.

Some Israeli officials and hostage families have accused Hamas of breaching the cease-fire terms.

Israel has reportedly considered imposing restrictions on aid as a form of retaliation, as per two diplomats briefed by Israeli officials, who also spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive topics.

However, three Israeli officials indicated earlier this week that they do not believe Hamas is intentionally delaying the process or acting in bad faith.

The Handover of Palestinian Bodies

Israel was expected to return 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza for every hostage body it received.

Men with face masks handle a body in a white body bag in Gaza.
Bodies of Palestinians, returned to Gaza on Wednesday, at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis.Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times

By Thursday, Israel had returned 120 bodies to Gaza in exchange for the 10 bodies received from Hamas, which is fewer than stipulated in the deal. Israeli officials did not immediately comment on why the full number had not been transferred.

Gaza hospital officials reported that the bodies were only marked with numbers assigned by Israel and included no names, leaving their identities unknown.

Increasing Aid to Gaza

The cease-fire agreement mandates a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, aiming for at least 600 aid trucks per day.

The United Nations reports that more aid is now entering Gaza than prior to the cease-fire, which began on Friday. However, the UN also noted that Israel has not yet authorized aid groups to sufficiently increase deliveries to adequately address the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Stéphane Dujarric, a spokesman for the U.N. secretary general, mentioned on Wednesday that UN teams were largely unable to deliver any aid into Gaza for two days earlier this week.

Palestinians are seen gathering cardboard boxes of aid amid rubble in Khan Yunis.
Palestinians with boxes of aid in Khan Younis on Sunday.Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times

On Monday, the main crossings into Gaza, Kerem Shalom and Kissufim, were shut down because the Israeli military prioritized the prisoner and hostage exchange. Aid was also prevented from entering on Tuesday as aid workers were unable to collect cargo on the Gaza side of the crossing.

Mr. Dujarric stated he was unsure if the target of 600 trucks had been met on any day this week.

Border Crossings

Israel had committed to reopening the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which has been mostly closed since the war began. However, it has not yet done so.

Israel maintains that it still plans to open the crossing, but has not provided a timeline.

On Thursday, the Israeli military clarified that the cease-fire deal did not stipulate aid entry via Rafah, and that the crossing would only be accessible for individuals traveling between Gaza and Egypt.

The Next Phase of Negotiations

The cease-fire agreement implemented last week only addressed a few of the points outlined in President Trump’s peace plan. In addition to the cease-fire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners, Israeli forces withdrew from certain areas of Gaza.

However, the deal postponed some of the most complex issues for later negotiation, including whether Hamas will disarm, who will govern Gaza in the future, and how that governance will be structured.

These issues are slated for discussion during Phase 2 talks, but their commencement date remains uncertain. An Israeli official indicated this week that a second round of talks would not begin until the first phase is fully completed.

Natan Odenheimer, Aaron Boxerman and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad contributed reporting.

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