Securing the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza and halting the recent conflict was a monumental task, spanning two years and requiring direct intervention from the American president and various Arab and Muslim leaders. Yet, this achievement, significant as it is, was likely the simplest part of the journey.
The far more formidable challenge ahead involves persuading Hamas to relinquish its weapons and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip. These are crucial preconditions for a complete Israeli withdrawal, as reiterated by both President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.
Beyond disarmament, President Trump’s ambitious 20-point plan for Gaza encompasses numerous other complex issues. It calls for the establishment of an international force to ensure security, a robust initiative to rebuild Gaza’s shattered economy and infrastructure, and the creation of a temporary Palestinian governing committee, all under international oversight.
Discussions leading up to the cease-fire were deeply complicated by questions surrounding who would govern Gaza ‘the day after’ the war. These contentious issues ultimately had to be separated from the initial truce negotiations, deferred to a subsequent ‘Phase 2’ of talks.
This second phase seemed to begin on an optimistic note Monday evening in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. There, President Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi convened numerous leaders, hoping to build on the momentum generated by the truce and the recent exchange of 20 living Israeli hostages (and the remains of others) for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
“Phase 2 has started,” Mr. Trump declared, predicting “tremendous progress.”
He enthusiastically proclaimed, “It’s peace in the Middle East. Everyone said it’s not possible to do. And it’s going to happen.”
However, despite the promising start in Sharm el-Sheikh, the exact timing and location for the formal commencement of Phase 2 talks remain uncertain. Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts suggest that a full realization of Mr. Trump’s plan faces significant hurdles and that potential setbacks are more easily imagined than success.
“The main issue still hasn’t been solved: Hamas’s weapons,” observed Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian columnist from Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. “The Israelis are demanding Hamas disarm, which is not a simple administrative measure. Hamas was founded on the basis of bearing arms.”
Essentially, he noted, Hamas is being asked to abandon its core ideology.
While the cessation of a war that has claimed tens of thousands of Palestinian lives and devastated much of Gaza has fostered a more optimistic mood, Mr. Atallah expressed uncertainty about its longevity. “It feels good right now,” he remarked, “but I can see dark clouds in the distance and I don’t know what they’re carrying.”
Many Israeli analysts and officials anticipate that Phase 2 talks will likely stall. They foresee a prolonged status quo where Hamas remains armed and the Israeli military maintains a presence in Gaza, unwilling to fully withdraw. In this scenario, the Israeli military might adopt a strategy similar to its approach with Hezbollah in Lebanon: occasional long-range strikes against Hamas militants or their weapon caches.
Despite Mr. Trump’s firm declarations that the war is over, analysts warn that any regression by either side could quickly reignite hostilities.
“If there’s a terrorist attack against one of our posts right now, God forbid, and we have casualties, after a minute, it’s over,” stated Zohar Palti, a former senior official from both Mossad and the Ministry of Defense.
Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy and distinguished fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, highlighted the potential impact of domestic politics. “If it turns out in four or five weeks that the general mood in the country is that this war was an awful round, but only another round, and Hamas is back, I can see Netanyahu trying to correct that,” Mr. Novik explained, hinting at a possible return to conflict. “All you need is a Hamas provocation and a disproportionate Israeli reaction, and you can have a spiral.”
Mr. Novik stressed that Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt—the three Muslim-majority nations instrumental in brokering the Hamas-Israel cease-fire—now bear the responsibility “to pressure Hamas not to provoke.”
Members of Mr. Netanyahu’s governing coalition place the burden squarely on Hamas. Several officials described the existing cease-fire agreement as merely a trade: Israel conceded roughly half of Gaza for its hostages. For Israel to withdraw from the remaining territory, they insist, Hamas must disarm and allow a new governing body to take control of the enclave.
“Things are very straightforward,” said Boaz Bismuth, a Netanyahu ally and head of the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee. “If you don’t want Israel to be there, you know exactly what you have to do. It’s easy.”
However, stating this goal does not make its achievement any less complex.
Experts familiar with the militant group indicate that Hamas is prepared to make certain concessions to facilitate Gaza’s reconstruction, but it intends to retain some level of influence over the territory’s future.
“Hamas is willing to offer some concessions to enable the rehabilitation of Gaza, but it will not evaporate,” asserted Ibrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst with ties to Hamas. “Its focus is on quiet. It wants to be part of the solution, and it won’t be an obstacle to stability.”
Mr. Palti, the former Israeli intelligence and defense official, voiced skepticism regarding the Trump plan’s demand that Hamas be excluded from both military and civilian roles in Gaza’s governance.
“Who’s going to do it?” he questioned. “If somebody thinks that with a magic stick you’re achieving this revolution in hours or days, forget about it. It’s not going to happen. Not because I’m pessimistic; because I’m realistic.”
The plan’s suggestion of an international stabilization force, if deployed, could prompt further Israeli military withdrawal. Yet, critical details such as which countries would contribute, how it would be financed and trained, and its deployment timeline, remain largely undefined.
Furthermore, the Palestinian Authority, which previously governed Gaza and still has personnel there, appears to be largely excluded from Mr. Trump’s initiative, pending unspecified reforms.
Despite these significant hurdles, it is premature to declare Phase 2 doomed from the outset.
Mr. Bismuth, the lawmaker aligned with Mr. Netanyahu, expressed considerable optimism, citing the involvement of Arab nations in the peace talks and, especially, the recent release of 20 Israelis held in Gaza since the October 7, 2023, attacks.
“I do believe that those who have to do the specific moves expected from them will do them,” he affirmed. “When you have such results like today, you can believe in the optimistic scenario.”