After two arduous years, securing the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza and halting the conflict required direct intervention from the American president and several Arab and Muslim leaders. Yet, this initial triumph was arguably the easiest hurdle to overcome.
The far more formidable challenge lies in persuading Hamas to relinquish its weapons and demilitarize the Gaza Strip. These are crucial prerequisites for Israel’s complete withdrawal, a point emphatically reiterated by both President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.
Beyond disarmament, President Trump’s extensive 20-point peace plan for Gaza addresses numerous complex issues. It proposes the establishment of an international security force, a grand vision for rebuilding Gaza’s economy and infrastructure, and the formation of a provisional Palestinian governing committee, all to be supervised by an international oversight board.
Indeed, discussions during the cease-fire negotiations were significantly complicated by the question of Gaza’s governance “the day after” the war. This issue proved so contentious that it was ultimately decoupled from the initial truce talks and deferred to a subsequent negotiation phase.
However, this second phase began with a hopeful atmosphere on Monday evening in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. There, President Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted numerous leaders, aiming to capitalize on the momentum from the truce and a prisoner swap that saw 20 living Israeli hostages and the remains of others exchanged for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
“Phase 2 has officially commenced,” President Trump declared, optimistically forecasting “tremendous progress.”
“This is peace for the Middle East,” he added. “Everyone claimed it was impossible, but it is happening.”
Despite the initial gathering in Sharm el-Sheikh, the exact timing and location for the formal commencement of Phase 2 talks remain uncertain.
Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts have expressed concerns, suggesting that the plan is more likely to encounter setbacks than achieve full realization.
“The core problem, Hamas’s weaponry, remains unresolved,” stated Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist based in London, originally from Jabaliya in northern Gaza. “Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm is no mere administrative formality; Hamas was founded on the principle of armed resistance.”
According to Atallah, this demand essentially asks Hamas to “dismantle its fundamental ideology.”
While the cessation of a war that devastated Gaza and claimed tens of thousands of Palestinian lives has fostered a more optimistic mood, Atallah cautioned that its longevity is precarious.
“It feels positive now,” he reflected, “but I foresee storm clouds gathering, and I’m unsure what they portend.”
Many Israeli analysts and officials anticipate that Phase 2 negotiations will likely stall. They envision a prolonged stalemate where Hamas retains its arms, the Israeli military maintains a presence in Gaza, and the conflict reverts to periodic, distant strikes against Hamas militants or their arsenals, similar to Israel’s approach with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Despite President Trump’s confident and unqualified assertions that the war is concluded, analysts warn that any misstep or regression by either party could quickly reignite hostilities.
“Should a terrorist attack occur against one of our positions, God forbid, resulting in casualties, the truce would be over in a minute,” stated Zohar Palti, a former senior official with Mossad and the Ministry of Defense.
Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy and a distinguished fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, highlighted the potential impact of domestic politics. “If, in a few weeks, the national sentiment concludes that this war was merely another round, and Hamas is resurgent, I can envision Netanyahu moving to rectify that,” Novik explained, hinting at a possible return to conflict. “A Hamas provocation, followed by a disproportionate Israeli response, could easily trigger a dangerous spiral.”
According to Novik, the responsibility now falls on Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt – the key Muslim-majority mediators of the initial cease-fire – to “pressure Hamas to avoid any provocations.”
Members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s governing coalition firmly place the responsibility on Hamas. They characterize the current cease-fire as a basic exchange: Israel conceding approximately half of Gaza in return for its hostages. For Israel to fully withdraw from the remaining territory, Hamas must disarm and allow an alternative governing body to assume control of the enclave.
“The situation is quite clear,” stated Boaz Bismuth, a Netanyahu ally and head of the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee. “If you wish for Israel’s complete departure, the path is straightforward. It’s simple.”
However, such pronouncements do not guarantee reality.
Experts with close ties to Hamas indicate that while the militant group is open to concessions for Gaza’s reconstruction, it is not willing to entirely forgo its influence over the territory’s future.
“Hamas is prepared to offer some compromises for Gaza’s recovery, but it will not simply disappear,” explained Ibrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst with strong Hamas connections. “Its primary goal is maintaining peace and being an integral part of any future solution, ensuring it doesn’t become a barrier to stability.”
Palti, the former Israeli official, voiced deep skepticism regarding the Trump plan’s stipulation that Hamas be entirely excluded from both military and civilian governance in Gaza.
“Who, realistically, will enforce this?” he questioned. “Anyone expecting this fundamental change to occur in mere hours or days is deluding themselves. It’s simply not going to happen, not out of pessimism, but out of a clear understanding of reality.”
The plan’s proposal for an international stabilization force could facilitate further Israeli military withdrawal. However, critical details such as contributing nations, funding mechanisms, training protocols, and deployment timelines remain largely undefined.
Furthermore, the Palestinian Authority, which once governed Gaza and still has personnel there, seems largely sidelined from Trump’s initiative, pending unspecified reforms.
Despite these significant challenges, it would be premature to declare Phase 2 doomed from the start.
Boaz Bismuth, the lawmaker from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s party, drew considerable encouragement from the involvement of Arab nations in the peace discussions, and even more so from Monday’s release of 20 Israelis held in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.
“I genuinely believe that the parties responsible for implementing the necessary steps will do so,” he asserted. “When you witness tangible results like today’s, it instills faith in an optimistic future.”