In a surprising twist, the United States is on the cusp of a significant renewable energy surge, even under President Trump’s administration.
Despite the administration’s actions, which include reducing clean energy tax credits and creating obstacles for new projects—moves that will ultimately curtail some future development—the sector is experiencing an unexpected growth spurt.
However, any substantial deceleration in American renewable energy and battery storage growth isn’t expected for several years. This is largely due to companies urgently deploying solar panels, wind turbines, and massive battery systems before current federal tax incentives diminish or disappear.
The sheer volume of planned projects is staggering; experts predict the U.S. will install record or near-record levels of green energy and storage capacity through 2027. One leading research firm even boosted its forecast for next year’s wind, solar, and battery additions by over 10 percent.
“There’s this huge hurry-up that is taking place,” commented Thomas Byrne, CEO of CleanCapital, a New York firm specializing in solar and battery storage development and operation.
New U.S. renewable energy and battery capacity
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Projection as
of April 2025
100 gigawatts
80
Current
projection
60
40
20
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Projection as
of April 2025
100 gigawatts
80
Current
projection
60
40
20
2030
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
To qualify for federal tax credits, which Congress abruptly voted to discontinue years ahead of schedule, wind and solar projects needed to commence construction by July. (Battery installations have a more extended grace period to begin.)
To meet this strict deadline, many developers expedited orders for critical equipment, including custom power transformers and solar panels. Such early procurement is a key method to signal to the Internal Revenue Service that a project has officially begun.
Only larger corporations can absorb these substantial upfront costs, leading analysts to anticipate that these giants will acquire smaller, cash-strapped projects from other developers.
To secure eligibility for the credits, CleanCapital invested approximately $25 million this summer in solar panels it doesn’t immediately require. The company intends to house these panels in a San Bernardino, California, warehouse, incurring a monthly rental cost of $145,000.
“This rush is real,” emphasized Jennifer Granholm, Energy Secretary for President Joseph R. Biden Jr., during a recent New York press briefing. She predicted, “You’ll see an uptick in the next two years, and then you’ll see a diminishment after that, unless something changes.”
The sheer volume of renewable energy projects proceeding despite federal resistance underscores the sector’s formidable momentum. This isn’t solely driven by subsidies; it’s also fueled by an immense demand for fresh energy sources. Solar and battery technologies offer rapid installation compared to traditional natural gas and nuclear facilities, and their costs have decreased significantly, even as gas power plant construction expenses have dramatically increased.
In fact, the federal Energy Information Administration estimates that renewable energy and battery storage will account for approximately 93 percent of all new capacity added to U.S. power grids this year.
“We have never seen this kind of demand, ever,” stated Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP Renewables North America, a prominent energy developer. Consequently, her company’s development strategy remains largely unchanged from before Congress altered the tax credits.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s attempts to hinder renewable energy will inevitably have consequences. Beyond tax credits, federal permits remain a critical hurdle, with Mr. Trump openly declaring that his administration would not approve them for wind or what he termed “farmer destroying Solar.”
Reflecting these challenges, the International Energy Agency, based in Paris, recently cut its five-year forecast for U.S. solar and wind energy capacity additions by nearly half. The most significant impact is anticipated from 2028 onward, corresponding to the final full year of Mr. Trump’s potential presidency.
Between obtaining necessary permits and navigating grid connection timelines, companies can only accelerate a limited number of projects. Already, some smaller solar companies are resorting to layoffs or even preparing for closure.
A growing number of developers are concentrating on battery storage solutions, designed to charge during periods of low electricity cost and abundance, and then discharge when energy demand peaks. These systems are crucial for stabilizing the grid amidst the influx of recent wind and solar installations.
Meanwhile, the offshore wind sector has become virtually unapproachable, primarily due to the administration’s aggressive opposition to the industry.
“This is the death knell of offshore wind,” asserted David Giroux, chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price Investment Management. He elaborated, “Any time you increase uncertainty around the ultimate return on an investment, you either have to get a higher return to compensate you for that risk, or more likely you just won’t take that risk in the first place.”
Ultimately, the discontinuation of renewable energy tax credits is expected to lead to higher energy bills, as constructing alternative power sources like gas or nuclear plants is a lengthy process. Consequently, existing gas plants are likely to see increased utilization.
“There’s not going to be as much supply as expected,” Mr. Byrne from CleanCapital concluded. “Necessarily, prices will go up.”