Even with the Trump administration’s attempts to hinder its progress, the renewable energy sector is on the verge of a significant boom.
The administration and its congressional allies have actively worked to dismantle clean energy tax credits and impede renewable projects. While these actions are expected to reduce the overall number of wind and solar farms constructed in the long term, the immediate future tells a different story.
However, any significant deceleration in the expansion of renewable energy and battery storage across the U.S. won’t be felt for a few years. This delay is due to companies rushing to deploy solar panels, wind turbines, and large-scale battery systems before crucial federal tax incentives become unavailable or more difficult to access.
The sheer volume of planned projects is staggering, leading analysts to broadly anticipate that the U.S. will install record or near-record levels of renewable energy and battery capacity through 2027. In fact, BloombergNEF, a prominent research firm, recently boosted its projection for next year’s additions of wind, solar, and batteries by over 10 percent.
“There’s this huge hurry-up that is taking place,” remarked Thomas Byrne, CEO of New York’s CleanCapital, a company dedicated to developing, owning, and operating solar and battery storage initiatives.
New U.S. renewable energy and battery capacity
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Projection as
of April 2025
100 gigawatts
80
Current
projection
60
40
20
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Projection as
of April 2025
100 gigawatts
80
Current
projection
60
40
20
2030
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
To qualify for federal tax credits, wind and solar projects needed to be under construction by July, as Congress unexpectedly moved to eliminate these incentives years ahead of schedule. Battery installations, however, have a slightly more extended timeline to commence.
To meet this tight deadline, many developers expedited their procurement of custom power transformers (devices that adjust voltage), solar panels, and other essential equipment. Submitting these orders serves as a key method for developers to prove to the Internal Revenue Service that their projects are indeed active.
Only larger companies possess the financial capacity to make such substantial upfront investments. Consequently, analysts anticipate a trend where these bigger players will acquire smaller, cash-strapped projects.
As a safeguard to ensure its projects remained eligible for credits, CleanCapital invested approximately $25 million in solar panels this summer, even though they aren’t immediately needed. The company intends to house these panels in a rented warehouse in San Bernardino, California, at a monthly cost of $145,000.
“This rush is real,” stated Jennifer Granholm, Energy Secretary for President Joseph R. Biden Jr., during a recent press briefing in New York. She added, “You’ll see an uptick in the next two years, and then you’ll see a diminishment after that, unless something changes.”
The sheer volume of renewable energy projects set for construction, even in the face of federal resistance, underscores the sector’s incredible momentum. This isn’t solely due to subsidies, but also a significant demand for new energy sources. Solar and battery systems offer faster installation times compared to traditional natural gas and nuclear power plants, and their costs have decreased, contrasting sharply with the surging expenses of constructing gas power plants.
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, renewable energy and battery technologies are projected to account for approximately 93 percent of all new capacity added to U.S. power grids this year.
“We have never seen this kind of demand, ever,” shared Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP Renewables North America, a prominent energy developer. She noted that despite Congress’s decision to scale back tax credits, the company’s development strategy remains largely unchanged.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s attempts to impede renewable energy will undoubtedly have consequences. Beyond the tax credit issue, federal permits pose another hurdle, with Mr. Trump explicitly stating his administration’s refusal to approve projects for wind or “farmer destroying Solar.”
The International Energy Agency, based in Paris, recently slashed its projections by nearly half for the amount of solar and wind energy capacity the United States is expected to add in the next five years. Most of this impact is predicted to manifest starting in 2028, coinciding with the final full year of Mr. Trump’s presidential term.
The combined challenges of securing permits and connecting to the grid mean companies can only accelerate a limited number of projects. Already, some smaller solar companies are reporting layoffs or are on the brink of closure.
Some developers are strategically shifting their focus to building battery systems that store electricity when it’s inexpensive and abundant, then release it during peak demand. These batteries are crucial for stabilizing the grid, especially with the influx of new wind and solar projects.
Meanwhile, the offshore wind industry has become almost impossible to pursue, primarily due to the administration’s sustained opposition and attacks.
“This is the death knell of offshore wind,” declared David Giroux, Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price Investment Management. He elaborated, “Whenever you introduce uncertainty about the potential returns on an investment, you either need a significantly higher return to justify the risk, or more often, you simply avoid taking that risk altogether.”
Ultimately, the removal of renewable energy tax credits is expected to lead to higher energy costs, as constructing alternative power sources like natural gas or nuclear plants takes many years. Consequently, existing gas plants are likely to see increased utilization.
“There’s not going to be as much supply as expected,” Mr. Byrne of CleanCapital concluded. “Necessarily, prices will go up.”