Ontario’s college system is reeling from significant financial challenges, with institutions like Loyalist College in Belleville and Northern College in Timmins particularly hard hit. Recent consultant reports from Deloitte and KPMG, commissioned for the provincial government, paint a stark picture: Loyalist could see its revenue plummet by as much as 60% by 2030, while Northern College anticipates a 35% decline. These alarming figures underscore how heavily some colleges have come to rely on international student tuition to maintain their financial health.
Deepening Financial Holes Anticipated
The Deloitte report on Loyalist College forecasts a dramatic increase in deficits, potentially soaring from $28 million to $41 million within five years. To mitigate this, the college is considering significant program and staff reductions, yet even with these measures, a projected $30 million shortfall by 2030 remains. Similarly, Northern College’s KPMG report warns of a drastic shift, projecting an $8 million surplus in 2025 turning into a potential $8 million deficit by 2030. The recommendations are severe, including substantial cuts to both programs and staff. Furthermore, to trim over $1 million in operational costs, Northern College might be forced to sell or lease its Kirkland Lake and Moosonee campuses.
The Steep Decline in International Student Enrollment
The core of this crisis lies in the sharp decline of international student enrollment. These students previously constituted a substantial portion of the student body, accounting for 60% of Northern College’s full-time enrollment and a staggering 84% of Loyalist’s business program students. The federal government’s decision to cap study permits in 2024, aimed at easing population growth and housing pressures, has had immediate and profound consequences. Study permit approvals plummeted by 70% in the first half of 2025, with IRCC issuing 90,000 fewer permits compared to the previous year. This policy shift, coupled with many programs losing their Post-Graduation Work Permit eligibility, has compelled colleges to cancel popular non-degree business diplomas and other programs favored by international students.
Widespread Job Losses and Escalating Labor Tensions
The human cost of this financial downturn is stark, with approximately 10,000 college staff members either already laid off or facing imminent job loss. This dire situation led thousands of support staff to go on strike in September 2025, advocating for job security and a three-year moratorium on layoffs and campus closures. However, the College Employer Council deemed these demands unrealistic, emphasizing the severe financial pressures currently facing the institutions.
A Province-Wide Crisis Unfolds
The struggle isn’t confined to just Loyalist and Northern; at least 14 other Ontario colleges, including prominent names like Durham, Fanshawe, and Sault College, have undergone similar financial scrutinies. Historically, international tuition fees served as a crucial buffer, helping these institutions balance their budgets. For example, Northern College, which reaped almost $30 million from international students in 2023–24, anticipates a drastic plunge to just $8.6 million by 2027–28. Industry experts caution that colleges which rapidly expanded their operations, heavily relying on international student revenue, will now face immense difficulty sustaining their current operational capacities.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
To survive, colleges across Ontario are undergoing painful restructuring. This involves planned cuts to academic programs and administrative staff, alongside the potential sale or leasing of campus properties. Experts are raising serious concerns that these institutions may soon lack the necessary funding to adequately fulfill their essential, government-assigned roles within the province’s educational landscape.